Will Israel defy UNSC and launch a ground operation in Rafah?

Tel Aviv/Washington/New York: Will Israel defy a United Nations Security Council resolution of March 25, 2024, and move ahead with its plan to launch a “major ground operation” in Rafah?

The probability appears high after Israel, in protest of Washington’s ‘full support’ to the critical objectives of the latest UNSC resolution, cancelled the visit of its delegation to the United States.

The United States warned Israel that “this type of full-scale invasion would be a mistake.  It would be a mistake not just because of the extraordinary impact it would have on the somewhere around 1.4 million civilians who are in Rafah now, but it would also be a mistake because it would harm Israel’s overall security”.

Israel now accuses the US of having ” abandoned its policy [on the present conflict in Gaza] in the UN”. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had made it clear last night that should the US depart from its principled policy and not veto “this harmful resolution”, he will cancel the Israeli delegation’s visit to the United States.

The UN Security Council, tabled by its 10 non-permanent members after 171 days of war in Gaza,  passed the resolution on March 25, 2024, demanding an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan, the immediate and unconditional release of hostages and “the urgent need to expand the flow” of aid into Gaza. There were 14 votes in favour with the United States abstaining. The Council, however, rejected a Russia-proposed amendment that would have called for a permanent ceasefire by a vote of 3 in favour (Algeria, China, Russian Federation) to 1 against (United States), with 11 abstentions.

Israel contended that the latest UNSC resolution gave Hamas hope that international pressure would force Israel to accept a ceasefire without the release of its hostages, thus harming both the war effort and the effort to release the hostages. It further argued that while the text of the resolution denounces the taking of hostages — the Council did not take a “single step towards this end apart from symbolic words”.  Israel’s representative to the UNSC made it clear that “there is no way to secure their return other than through a military operation”, so long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages as a result of diplomatic efforts.

“Regrettably, the United States did not veto the new resolution, which calls for a ceasefire that is not contingent on the release of hostages. This constitutes a clear departure from the consistent US position in the Security Council since the beginning of the war,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated.

Washington contended that it didn’t veto because the language in the resolution related to the ceasefire and release of hostages was consistent with the longstanding United States position. The US abstained from voting on the UN Security Council resolution because it did not condemn Hamas’s terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023.  But the reason it didn’t veto it was that there were also things in that resolution that were “consistent” with Washington’s long-term position; most importantly, that there should be a ceasefire, and that there should be a release of hostages. “We want to see an immediate ceasefire, but linked to hostages, and then we want to build that into something more enduring.  So we had been in close contact with them [Israel] about this resolution… we believe this resolution is consistent with our policy on this matter and consistent with what we believe to be the Government of Israel’s policy, so we have had conversations with them over the last 24 hours, and I’m sure those will continue,” the US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in Washington.

However, Israel announced: “In light of the change in the US position, PM Netanyahu decided that the delegation would remain in Israel”. It was on US President Joe Biden’s request that Israel had earlier agreed to send its team to Washington to exchange views and discuss alternative approaches that would target key elements of Hamas and secure the Egypt-Gaza border without a major ground operation in Rafah.

US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken today (IST) met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Washington and reiterated the United States’ support for ensuring the defeat of Hamas, including in Rafah while reiterating opposition to a major ground operation in Rafah.

While the US called Israel’s decision of not sending its delegation “surprising and unfortunate”, Blinken, in the course of his meeting with Gallant, underscored that alternatives exist to a major ground invasion that would both better ensure Israel’s security and protect Palestinian civilians. He also discussed the need to immediately surge and sustain additional humanitarian assistance to meet the needs of civilians in Gaza.

Miller said: “We think there is a better way to do it that would accomplish, as I said, what is a very legitimate national security goal of Israel’s, which is to defeat the Hamas battalions that remain in Rafah. So we will continue to make that case to them.  I expect that we will have other ways to do so over the coming days, but I would not want to make any predictions about what will come after that”.

Incidentally, the UNSC resolution is  “non-binding”. So does it mean that it would be violated if the fighting continues?”I would defer to international lawyers to speak in detail to that question,” Miller said. He though added that the US did believe that the ceasefire and release of hostages that the resolution calls for is not only the United States’ position but has been Israel’s position.  “This is what Israel has been trying to achieve through these negotiations.  So I would hope that we could get to that agreement through these negotiations, and I would hope we get that in the near future,” he said.