World Water Day March 22: When glaciers melt away, the consequences are many
By Indira Khurana* and Ashok Khurana**
Glaciers hold 69 per cent of the world’s freshwater and are melting at a rapid rate. As the rooftops of the world melt away, the consequences are many.
This year’s theme for the United Nations World Water Day, celebrated on March 22, is Glacier Preservation. From this year, March 21, will be recognised as the World Day for Glaciers. In December 2022, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and the setting up of an International Trust Fund for the Preservation of Glaciers. This initiative was supported by the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, and includes an international conference on glacier preservation to be held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan in May this year. The concern by the President holds relevance for the world, and the implications of rapid glacier melting for his country and the Central Asian region represent global scenarios.
Various reports have found that the cryosphere – regions on Earth covered by snow and ice – are among the worst affected by climate change. UNESCO, which monitors some 18,600 glaciers across 50 of its World Heritage Sites says one-third of those are set to disappear by 2050, whatever the temperature rise scenario. In the Hindukush Himalayas (HKH), alone, glaciers occupy approximately 73,173 square kilometres. These glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate and the HKH could lose up to 75 per cent of their volume by the end of this century. Scientists warn of dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly two billion people who live downstream of the rivers that originate in the mountain region. Researchers found that Mount Everest’s glaciers have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.
The 2023 report Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HI-WISE) from the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) mapped out for the first time the linkages between cryosphere change with water, ecosystems and society. Alarming findings of this report include:
- The average temperature in the region has increased by 0.28°C per decade between 1951 and 2020. The glaciers lost a mass of 0.28 metres of water equivalent per year (m.w.e) between 2010 and 2019 compared to 0.17 m.w.e. per year between 2000 and 2009 because of increased temperature.
- Nine out of 12 river basins have witnessed increased warming rates at higher elevations. The strongest impacts are being felt in the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yangtze, and Indus Basins. Contribution of water from glaciers to the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus will increase through 2050 and then decrease by 2100.
- A quarter of snow cover could be lost under a high emissions scenario. The report quoted a study that predicted a decline in snowfall by 30-50 per cent in the Indus Basin, 50-60 per cent in the Ganges, and 50-70 per cent in the Brahmaputra between 2070 and 2100 compared to the average snowfall between 1971 and 2000.
- Ice and snow in the HKH are an important source of water for 12 rivers that flow through 16 countries in Asia. The availability of fresh water would be affected for the 240 million people who live in the Himalayan region as well as a further 1.65 billion who live downstream of the 12 rivers that originate in the mountains.
- Flash floods and avalanches will grow more likely in coming years if greenhouse gases are not sharply reduced.
Other findings are equally alarming. Uttarakhand’s glaciers have shrunk by 21 square kilometres in 23 years. An (ISRO report found that 89 per cent of the 2,341 Himalayan glacial lakes identified in 2016-17 have significantly expanded – more than doubled their size due to glacier melting. This poses a risk of these lakes breaching and causing sudden flooding and devastation in lower areas.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe, and scientists are concerned that the thawing permafrost – a ground that remains permanently frozen – could potentially set free ancient bacteria and viruses, and pave the way for a host of new potential pathogens. Rivers in Alaska are turning orange as permafrost is melting and releasing frozen metals such as zinc, iron and copper into the waters.
From future tense to future secure
For the people living in the mountains, who have little role to play in climate change, adaptation measures need to escalate. But melting glaciers will affect us all at different levels: Physical, economic, social, environmental, and psychological, as this accelerated melting will affect access to water, increase conflict and impact peace. Major action is needed for (a) Reducing emissions and (b) Decentralised water conservation that will help mitigate both, flood and drought. Increasing glacier melting increases flows into lakes that feed in the upper mountainous regions and can cause floods. Increased flow in rivers can also cause floods. As the rivers run out of this glacial flow, drought will increase. Coupled with depleting groundwater levels, water resources will dry up.
Decentralised rainwater conservation will add to river flows and help replenish groundwater resources, thus improving the chances of water security.
Humans need to act rapidly, if they want to save their water towers, and themselves. Stakeholders working on bringing down emissions and net zero and those working on water need to work together to address the crisis. What happens in the hills and mountains will no longer remain restricted to these areas alone: disturbing ripples will be felt in the plains below and right up to the seas.
*Indira Khurana, PhD is Chief Advisor of Tarun Bharat Sangh, an NGO working since 1975 towards climate change mitigation and adaptation.
**Ashok Khurana is a retired Director-General of the Central Public Works Department, Government of India
