Perils of Climate Change: Vulnerable coastal communities need eco-region-sensitive protection

 By Dr. Indira Khurana

For poor and vulnerable coastal communities with a minimal carbon footprint, climate change is wreaking havoc on their lives and livelihoods. As the rising sea levels and coastal land erosion literally swallows their fields and their homes, they also face severe storms and cyclones, and for the last two years, COVID-19. In May 2021, when Cyclone Tauktae struck Gujarat and other states, and when cyclone Yaas struck West Bengal and Odisha, India was in the midst of a raging COVID-19 second wave.

India has a 7,500 km-long coastline. In 2020, a single event – Cyclone Amphan – affected 13 million people and caused over $13 billion in damage after it made landfall.

Depending on the geography and ecology, the water-related impacts of climate change are experienced differently. What is common is the increase in extreme weather events, all leading to deepening poverty; dwindling of livelihood opportunities; disrupted access to education, drinking water and sanitation; displacement; and, migration. These climate-related water challenges widen the existing socio-economic and gender inequality gap and are also leading to increased child trafficking.

In 2019, India was ranked as the seventh-worst hit country in terms of climate change by the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, published by the environmental think tank Germanwatch. 

According to a June 2021 review paper from ODI, the economic costs of climate impacts in India are already immense. Declining agricultural productivity, rising sea levels and negative health outcomes were forecast to cost India 3 per cent of gross domestic product at 1°C of global warming. Throw in the economic losses due to COVID-19 and the mind boggles.

The importance of oceans

Oceans cover 72 per cent of the earth’s surface. Over the last two centuries, oceans produced 50 per cent of oxygen on earth and absorbed 50 per cent of all anthropogenic carbon emissions: Mangroves, seagrass beds, tidal marshes and other coastal vegetated ecosystems (blue carbon ecosystems) are among the most intense sinks. Unfortunately, there is a continuing threat to these ocean ecosystems that help in fighting climate change.

What do high temperatures mean for oceans?

More than 90 per cent of the warming that has happened on Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean.

The ocean is the largest solar energy collector on Earth: Oceans can absorb large amounts of heat without a large increase in temperature. This ability to store and release heat over long periods of time gives the ocean a central role in stabilizing Earth’s climate system. The main source of ocean heat is sunlight. Additionally, clouds, water vapour, and greenhouse gases emit heat that they have absorbed, and some of that heat energy enters the ocean. Waves, tides, and currents constantly mix the ocean, moving heat from warmer to cooler latitudes and to deeper levels.

Rising amounts of greenhouse gases prevent heat radiated from Earth’s surface from escaping into space as freely as it used to. Most of this excess atmospheric heat is passed back to the ocean. As a result, upper ocean heat content has increased significantly over the past few decades. Warming ocean waters threaten marine ecosystems and human livelihoods.

Heat absorbed by the ocean is moved from one place to another, but it doesn’t disappear. The heat energy eventually re-enters the Earth system by melting ice shelves, evaporating water, or directly reheating the atmosphere. Thus, heat energy in the ocean can warm the planet for decades after it was absorbed. If the ocean absorbs more heat than it releases, its heat content increases.

Globally, 40 per cent of the population lives within 100 km of the coasts. While they are all at risk, more than 600 million people (10 per cent of global population), that lives in coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level, are obviously at greater risk. Almost two-thirds of the world’s cities with populations of over five million are located in areas at risk of sea level rise.

Why is this important for India?

India’s coastline stretches across 7,500 km along nine coastal states, two Union Territories, and two island territories, 70 coastal districts. According to the Centre for Coastal Zone Management and Coastal Shelter Belt, the coastal state population is 560 million. The coastal district population is 171 million and makes up a significant 14 per cent of India’s population.

An ODI review paper has put together disturbing facts around oceans, coastal regions and their impact in India, especially for communities along the Bay of Bengal:

• Between 1993 and 2012, the north Indian Ocean rose by an average of 3.2 mm per year. It rose at above-average rates within the Bay of Bengal: Over 5 mm a year.

• The states of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu (along the Bay of Bengal), are highly prone to storms and cyclones. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history: Eight out of ten deadliest tropical cyclones in the world have originated over the Bay of Bengal. With sustained wind speeds of over 240 km per hour, 2020’s Cyclone Amphan was the most powerful ever recorded in the region.
• Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are projected to nearly double by 2070-2100, compared to 1961-1990. These storms will be characterised by faster wind speeds, but also greater storm surge due to higher sea levels.
• This region is experiencing the largest relative increase of flood risk and ingression of sea into the land with increasing frequency of cyclones. Coastal lands are being eroded rapidly, leading to repeated displacement and relocation and livelihood loss as villages in the Sunderbans and coastal Odisha have shown.

The Sundarbans: Disappearing islands, vulnerable communities

Islands in the Sundarbans, a UNESCO world heritage site, are being eroded or swallowed by the sea. Battered by increasingly severe storms, vulnerable communities here are struggling to survive as the sea devours their fields and their huts. Displaced, forced to migrate or to eke out a living within the island, climate change and now COVID-19 has perpetuated their woes.

The Sundarbans represent one of the richest ecosystems globally and contains the world’s largest continuous mangrove forest, at nearly 10,000 sq. km. About 40 per cent of the Sundarbans forest lies within West Bengal with the rest being in Bangladesh. This ecosystem directly or indirectly supports the livelihood of more than 1.3 million people, with a population of more than 4.4 million residents. It also moderates the physical impacts of cyclones on the region, as with Cyclone Amphan, where the impacts would have been much more severe in Bangladesh had the forest not been there.

India’s Sundarbans are characterized by high levels of poverty and exposure to natural hazards. Sea-level rise, soil and water salinization, cyclones, and flooding make this one of the most hazardous areas on the Indian subcontinent. Climate change is further worsening the situation. Storms and cyclones have increased. Between 2019 and July 2021, the Sundarbans experienced four tropical storms: Fani (May 2019); Bulbul (November 2019; Amphan (May 2020 and Yaas (May 2021). When Amphan struck last year, people who had migrated because of the severe 2009 cyclonic storm Aila were returning to the Sundarbans due to the COVID-19 lockdown. When Yaas made a landfall, the second wave of COVID-19 was on the rise in India.

According to an article published in Reliefweb (May 2020), for decades, India’s Sundarbans region, where 54 of the 104 islands are inhabited, have faced a constant threat of sea-level rise and coastal erosion. Scientific evidence shows that the average yearly sea-level rise along the Sundarbans delta is much higher at 8 mm as compared to the global average of 3 mm annually. Further, the Indian part of the Sundarbans and its delta are sinking at a rate of about 2 to 4 mm a year. All this has led to a staggering land erosion of 170 sq. km between 1973-2010 along the Sundarbans coastline. Considering the risk from rising seas and coastal inundation, by 2050, an estimated one million people will need to relocate from more vulnerable locations of the Indian Sundarbans, and managed relocation will most likely have to be done on a larger scale in the future.

Recognition of coastal erosion dates back to 1977, when the West Bengal government West decided to withdraw funding support from Ghoramara and Lohachara islands, because of high rates of erosion. In 1991, Lohachara eventually disappeared. Ghoramara, about 30 km north of the Bay of Bengal, has seen unprecedented erosion in last few decades, and has shrunk from 26 sq. km, to around 6.7 sq.km. The population has dwindled, from around 40,000, to 5,193, as per the 2011 Census.

The first case of planned relocation of residents from Lohachara and Ghoramara to Sagar island started in the late 1970s. Resettled residents were provided land and housing under the relocation plan, but as the availability of public land in Sagar began to shrink due to erosion, entitlements were reduced. Ironically, evidence suggests that Sagar itself is now facing disappearance—as sea rise is happening at a rate of 12 mm annually. This flags the important lesson that if not properly planned, climate-induced change may make current places of relocation vulnerable in the future.

This managed relocation may have enabled people to stay in the Sundarbans, but as sea levels rise, which unfortunately they will, their vulnerability will again increase. Thus, long-term viability of relocations where the people were able to continue living in the Sundarbans needs to be considered in terms of vulnerability reduction and economic development. 

Repeated displacement of vulnerable coastal communities in Odisha

According to data from the Indian Metrological Department, between 1981 – 2007, some 48 per cent of total cyclones that hit eastern coastal areas occurred in Odisha. The state has already lost 153.8 km, or about 28 per cent, of its coastline to sea water ingression. Estimates indicate that30 per cent of coastal areas in the state will be under high risk of erosion in the near future. An increase in sea level has caused massive economic loss and disruption of life among the coastal communities of the state.

The story of disappearing villages in Odisha

Ranjan Panda of Water Initiatives, Odisha and his colleagues undertook a detailed study in Udayakani and Tandahar villages of Puri district to understand ground realities.

Both Tandahar and Udayakani currently lie 100 metres away from the sea, exposed to storms. The villagers have already relocated themselves thrice due to the advancing sea: The original village is now inside the sea. The number of households in Udayakani has dwindled from 56 to 35 over two decades as some villagers shifted to safer places. Informs Panda, “These villages are facing accelerated coastal erosion, forcing the poor into even greater poverty.”

The 105 households of  Tandahar village may meet a watery grave anytime soon. More than half of village gone into sea since the 1999 super cyclone Fani, which increased the salinity of the land reducing fertility, destroyed betel vines and affected coconut production. Salinity also impacted fish catch. “The ingression is now faster,” warns Panda.

Agricultural land has shrunk, farmers have become landless and migrant labour. There is no piped water supply, the water is saline and contains high amounts of iron, leaving women with little choice but to travel 1.5 km to collect water from a dugwell that is less saline. Gastro-related diseases, hypertension due to consumption of saline water, allergy and skin diseases are common.

The story of Satyabhaya village in Kendrapada district is no different. Facing erosion, the villagers were moved by the state government to Bagapatia, Odisha’s first rehabilitation colony for sea erosion-affected people. “The intention was good, but with this relocation, people of Satabhaya lost their livelihoods, livestock and lands,” rues Panda, adding, “Now they are dependent on markets for their food. Their consumption of protein has reduced drastically.” Access to drinking water and sanitation facilities and hygiene are lacking. As of now, the youth are migrating.

This study offers suggestions for people-centred rehabilitation that includes the provision of inclusive housing and land titles; immediate cash compensation and long-term job opportunities; skill mapping and upgradation for improving employability of youth; assuring food and nutrition security; providing access to basic services of healthcare, education and water, sanitation and hygiene; and, conflict mapping and resolution. To do all this, a Task Force to speed up policy formulation, access to finances and implementation is needed. 

Conclusions

Despite being home to 17.8 per cent of the world’s population, India accounts for only 3.2 per cent of cumulative emissions (Global Change Data Lab, 2021). Yet India cannot achieve its development aspirations without taking climate change into account.

Carbon footprints of poor coastal communities border on the negligible. Yet, as the sea warms and fragile ecosystems are damaged in the name of development, they are left to face the consequences. With the overall downturn due to COVID-19 and rising health expenditure, their future appears bleak. These coastal communities, already poor and vulnerable should not continue to pay the price of development they did not ask for or benefit from. For this, a granular, ecosystem specific, nature aligned and community approach to policy making and program design will be imperative for their long-term protection and rehabilitation.

*Indira Khurana, PhD has been working on water and natural resources for more than two decades.