By Venkatesh Raghavan
Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its February estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2020-21 beginning from 1st October 2020. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2020-21 season by 1.50 lakh bales to 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 360 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2020 to February 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 430.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 457.82 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 298.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 317.57 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) , imports of 7 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 7.44 lakh running bales of 160 kg. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs each (equivalent to 132.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2020 to February 2021 at 137.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 146.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments up to 28th February 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 36 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 38.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Stock at the end of February 2021 is estimated at 257.39 lakh of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 273.48 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 92.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 98.28 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 164.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 175.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21 up to 30th September 2021 at 495.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 526.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2020, crop for the season estimated at 358.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 380.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports now estimated by the CAI at 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.47 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the previous cotton season 2019-20.
The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI has been retained at the pre-lock down level of 330 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 350.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports for the season have now been estimated at 60 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 63.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from the previous month’s estimate of 54 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 57.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2019-20 was of 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 on 30th September 2021, is estimated by the CAI at 105.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 112.09 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 107.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 114.22 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
