New Delhi: Rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half (August to September period) of the southwest monsoon season, 2023 is very likely to be normal (94 to 106% of Long Period Average (LPA)), most probably on the negative side of the normal, as per the India Meteorological Department forecast.
During the second half of the 2023 southwest monsoon season, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of subdivisions adjacent to/ along the Himalayas, east-central India, and some parts of east and northeast India. Below-normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of peninsular India, and western parts of northwest and central India
The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole for August 2023 is very likely to be below normal (<94 % of Long Period Average (LPA)). During August, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of subdivisions adjacent to/along the Himalayas, east-central India, and some parts of east and northeast India. Below normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the south peninsula, and many parts of western parts of northwest and central India.
Moreover, during August 2023, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the south peninsula, east and northeast India, and many areas of western parts of northwest and central India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over some areas of north peninsular India, east-central India and along the plains of the Himalayas.
Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of India in August except some parts of northwest India where below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Currently, weak El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other climate models indicate that the El Niño conditions are likely to intensify further and continue up to early next year. At present neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the remaining part of the monsoon season.
IMD said today that it will issue the forecast outlook for the monthly rainfall and temperatures for the September by end of August 2023.
– global bihari bureau
