By Shankar Raj*
Thiruvananthapuram: After promises of a bountiful ‘more than average’ rainfall, the southwest monsoon has vanished from the skies in Kerala.
The sudden development has perplexed several climate agencies which have now started recalibrating their forecasts for the coming crucial month of July.
Farmers and catchment areas are heavily dependent on the July rainfall. July holds particular significance for Kerala’s southwest monsoon season, historically delivering the most rainfall (653 mm).
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially predicted above-normal rainfall for the month. But there is a rethink now as other global weather agencies, including United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Europe’s ECMWF, have revised their forecasts to a lower scale. Skymet Weather, a private agency, too has revised their forecast indicating a lack of triggers to give the monsoon rains a momentum in early July.
Weather experts blame the residual influence of El Niño, which typically suppresses the monsoon, and the delayed onset of La Niña, which typically enhances it.
The IMD’s latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to develop only during the second half of the monsoon season. If that happens, it would upset the cropping cycle across India.
“Previously, most models suggested a potential for La Niña conditions, raising expectations for above-normal June rainfall. However, the slow start has prompted agencies to reassess,” Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) was quoted in the media. While there is consensus on above-normal July rainfall, the excess levels remain uncertain, he added.
The revival of the monsoon in Kerala can be influenced by regional factors as well. “The presence of favourable systems such as low pressure and monsoon depression and offshore turf could influence the monsoon. The absence of favourable low pressure was a major reason for weak monsoon in June,” he said.
Although Kerala received 489 mm in June, the highest since 2020, it was 25% short of the historical average. In contrast, Tamil Nadu, typically less favoured during the southwest monsoon, received 46% above-average rainfall.
*Shankar Raj is a former editor of The New Indian Express, Karnataka and Kerala, and writes regularly on current affairs.
