Nairobi: The impacts of climate change are going to get worse and the world is heading for a 2.4°C to 2.6°C increase in temperatures by 2100, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Executive Director Inger Andersen wanted today at the launch of 2022 Emission Gap Report here.
“The science from UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report and indeed science presented by our friends at the UNFCCC [The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] and the WMO [The World Meteorological Organization] earlier this week is resounding: we are sliding from climate crisis to climate disaster,” Andersen said.
The Emissions Gap Report 2022 shows still nothing is being done anywhere near enough to cut greenhouse gas emissions to control the rise in temperatures. The report is the 13th edition in an annual series that provides an overview of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change. It shows that countries are off track to achieve even the globally highly insufficient nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 based on current policies are estimated at 58 GtCO2e. The implementation gap in 2030 between this number and NDCs is about 3 GtCO2e for the unconditional NDCs, and 6 GtCO2e for the conditional NDCs.
The top seven emitters (China, the European Union27, India, Indonesia, Brazil, the Russian Federation and the United States of America) plus international transport accounted for 55 per cent of global GHG emissions in 2020. Collectively, G20 members are responsible for 75 per cent of global GHG emissions.
Total and per capita GHG emissions of major emitters in 2020, including inventory-based land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
At the Glasgow climate summit last year (COP26), countries committed to update their climate pledges to deliver far greater emissions cuts. The Gap report documents that, collectively, the limited number of updated national pledges shave less than 1 per cent off projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, which makes a very negligible difference to predicted 2030 emissions.
The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, is now very “far away”. Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C rise in temperatures by the end of the century, highlighting a gap between national commitments and the efforts to enact those commitments. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a 2.4-2.6°C rise in temperatures by the end of the century, for conditional and unconditional pledges respectively. In the best-case scenario, full implementation of conditional NDCs, plus additional net zero commitments, points to a 1.8°C rise.
“We need to cut 45 per cent off emissions by 2030, over and above what current policies will deliver, to get on track to limiting global warming to 1.5°C. For 2°C, the challenge is smaller but still significant: 30 per cent by 2030,” Andersen said. According to her, while adding in net-zero commitments could bring the temperatures down to 1.8°C but she said this scenario “isn’t credible, particularly considering that current policies would be heading for a 2.8°C rise in temperatures.
“New pledges are so highly insufficient,” she said and added that the report had a very clear message: “If we are serious about climate change, we need to kick start a system-wide transformation, now. We need a root-and-branch redesign of the electricity sector, of the transport sector, of the building sector and of food systems. And we need to reform financial systems so that they can bankroll the transformations we cannot escape”.
While acknowledging that some people think this can’t be done over the next eight years, Andersen said, “But we can’t just throw up our hands and say we failed before we have even really tried. We must try, because every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to those that are yet to be connected to the electricity grid, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us. Even if we don’t get everything in place by 2030, we will be setting up the foundation for a carbon-neutral future: one that will allow us to bring down temperature overshoots and deliver other benefits, like green jobs, universal energy access and clean air”.
Electricity, industry, transport and buildings
The report finds that the transformation towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings is underway, but needs to move much faster. Electricity supply is most advanced, as the costs of renewable electricity have reduced dramatically. However, the pace of change must increase alongside measures to ensure a just transition and universal energy access.
For buildings, the best available technologies need to be rapidly applied. For industry and transport, zero-emission technology needs to be further developed and deployed. To advance the transformation, all sectors need to avoid the lock-in of new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure, advance zero-carbon technology and apply it and pursue behavioural changes.
Food systems can reform to deliver rapid and lasting cuts
Focus areas for food systems, which account for about a third of greenhouse gas emissions, include the protection of natural ecosystems, demand-side dietary changes, improvements in food production at the farm level and decarbonization of food supply chains. Action in these four areas can reduce projected 2050 food system emissions to around a third of current levels, as opposed to emissions almost doubling if current practices are continued.
Governments can facilitate transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy and develop novel foods that cut down carbon emissions. Individual citizens can change their lifestyles to consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction, which will also bring many health benefits.
The financial system must enable the transformation
A global transformation to a low-emissions economy is expected to require investments of at least USD 4-6 trillion a year. This is a relatively small (1.5-2 per cent) share of total financial assets managed, but significant (20-28 per cent) in terms of additional annual resources to be allocated.
Most financial actors, despite stated intentions, have shown limited action on climate mitigation because of short-term interests, conflicting objectives and not recognizing climate risks adequately.
Governments and key financial actors will need to steer credibly in one direction: a transformation of the financial system and its structures and processes, engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors.
The report recommends six approaches to financial sector reform, which must be carried out simultaneously:
- Make financial markets more efficient, including through taxonomies and transparency.
- Introduce carbon pricing, such as taxes or cap-and-trade systems.
- Nudge financial behaviour, through public policy interventions, taxes, spending and regulations.
- Create markets for low-carbon technology, through shifting financial flows, stimulating innovation and helping to set standards.
- Mobilize central banks: central banks are increasingly interested in addressing the climate crisis, but more concrete action on regulations is needed.
- Set up climate “clubs” of cooperating countries, cross-border finance initiatives and just transformation partnerships, which can alter policy norms and change the course of finance through credible financial commitment devices, such as sovereign guarantees.
– global bihari bureau