By Venkatesh Raghavan
Mumbai: The Indian export basket comprising merchandise and services exhibited a fair degree of resilience with the figures for 2020-21 standing at USD 493.19 billion as compared to the previous financial year’s USD 528.37 billion, according to the latest figures provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry today.
Though the dip seems a bit steep, considering the prolonged tight corner faced both by the global and Indian economy, financial analysts feel that we have been fairly able to buffer the shock. The overall negative growth stood at -6.6%.
The figures by themselves might not be able to project the true story that includes a revival factor. For, at the end of April 2020, there was an avalanche dip of – 60.28% in merchandise exports and the corresponding fall in the services sector stood at -8.92%.
The dip factor apart, there was another silver lining, with reports of a 60.29% growth in export of merchandise, in March ,2021 as compared to the same period in the previous year. The growth was propelled by a robust recovery staged in several of the merchandise sectors that include engineering goods, gems and jewellery, petroleum products, drugs and pharmaceuticals, besides organic and inorganic chemicals.
However, considering the y-o-y statistics for petroleum products, a USD 15.4 billion decline was registered. The overall y-o,-y decline got reflected in the diamond and jewellery sectors too that registered a USD 9.9 billion fall. The reports also mentioned that the fall in earnings was more because of global prices rather than shrinking volumes.
There was also a very lean patch globally for petroleum products that was nearing on 0% demand in some countries. This significantly impacted the Indian economy, both on the export and we import fronts.
On a summarized note, the overall trade deficit, covering both merchandise and services for the period April-March 2020-21, is estimated at USD 12.74 billion as compared to USD 77.76 billion in the previous financial year.
Viewing things from a future perspective, the Commerce Ministry document indicated prospects of enhanced trade volumes in the merchandise sector, both globally and for the Indian traders too and suggested that overall, the demand for Indian merchandise was expected to get a boost in the food and pharma sectors in the forthcoming months.
