The Kaladan project site
By Nava Thakuria*
Agreed officially between India and Myanmar in 2008, the fate of India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor project in the troubled Rakhine or Arakan State in Myanmar hangs in balance, owing to many factors, including the civil war in the neighbouring country. It was initially planned to launch by 2014. But the riverine project with an initial budget of Indian Rs 536 crore in 2008 (work started in 2010) has now crossed Rs 3,200 crore because of perennial delays and had lately missed its extended deadline of 2023.
The Kaladan project was initiated by New Delhi’s then Look East Policy and later revamped as Act East Policy, where the Sittwe port in the Bay of Bengal is planned to connect the north-eastern States. The shipment was supposed to arrive in Sittwe from Kolkata, Chennai and other international ports, and then it was to travel through the Kaladan River up to Paletwa in Chin State of Myanmar. Then the goods were to be shifted to land routes and reach Zorinpui in Mizoram border to connect other important localities in eastern India with National Highway 54.
Even though modernization of the Sittwe port and Paletwa jetty was already completed, the Paletwa-Zorinpui highway remains under construction.
What further puts a question mark over an early completion of the project is India’s attitude towards the rebel groups in Myanmar.
Unlike Beijing, which has moved strategically to engage both the junta and rebel groups to ensure their business interest, Indian diplomacy so far only revolved around dealing with the junta, even though the troubled Rakhine State supports many billion-dollar projects, sponsored by both China and India.
Beijing, with a cordial relation with the junta, continues nurturing the oil and gas pipelines project from Rakhine to their Kunming province and also pushing aggressively for the Belt and Road Initiative in the region. In reality, China is intensifying its investments under the economic corridor, hydropower, connectivity and the Kyaukphyu deep seaport project.
In February 2024, a spokesperson of the United League of Arakan (ULA) or Arakan Army in the first-ever interview given to The New Indian Express, had assured that the future of the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) “is totally safe” and asked India “to revise their military-centred policy towards Myanmar and they should engage with new partners/stakeholders, adding that “We want to have better relations with them and work together for mutual interest”.
With so much at stake, New Delhi appears to have woken up to engage with the rebel groups of late, besides maintaining the relation with the junta for countering Chinese influence in Myanmar and also propagating the India-supported missions, including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Corridor project that resumed connecting the land-locked north-eastern region.
Yet, the project involving the Kaladan River continues facing hurdles. Its fate hangs in balance also because after suffering in several battles at the hands of the rebels, the junta, which now controls hardly one-fifth of the national territory, comes forward with a plan to hold national elections by this year or early 2026. The junta-controlled Union Election Commission (UEC) even started preliminary preparations for the polls, including a countrywide census. By now, the junta led by Min Aung Hlaing (who functions as de facto President of Myanmar) has extended the state of emergency for another six months (till July 31, 2025).
As the current regime does not hold its control over the entire country and several national and regional political parties are facing the UEC’s ban as well as hundreds of opposition leaders including pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi remain behind the bars and the media continues to be under heavy restrictions, the country cannot expect a free, fair and comprehensive electoral process at this moment, and remains in a state of turmoil.
The western province of Myanmar has now turned into a full scale battle ground, where the rebel groups are approaching the capital city of Rakhine/Arakan State after occupying most of the Arakanese townships. The fighters belonging to the Arakan Army (AA) are seemingly preparing for the final assault on Sittwe along with another port city of Kyaukpyu.
By now, the ethnic armed group has captured 15 out of 17 major Arakanese localities after defeating the military junta. The AA fighters also seized Paletwa township of its neighboring Chin State and most border areas touching Bangladesh. The junta forces taking care of the remaining Arakanese localities are facing a difficult time as they need to wait for reinforcement of soldiers, weapons, food and other supplies. The AA on December 20, 2024, declared that their fighters had captured an important military headquarters (Western Command) in Ann locality. Earlier, another tactical headquarters (Northeastern Command) in Lashio locality of northern Shan State fell to the rebel group Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in August 2024.
Both the AA and MNDAA conducted anti-junta operations under the banner of ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’ along with Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Termed as ‘Operation 1027’, the massive offensive was launched in late 2023. Following the intervention of China, the TNLA and MNDAA recently announced the ceasefire, but the AA continued their offensives in various western Myanmar localities.
Lately the AA fighters stepped up offensives in three Rakhine bordering townships under the Ayeyarwady region. Reports of clashes with the junta soldiers also reported from Padaung and Okeshitpin localities in the Bago region. Other ethnic groups and resistance forces also maintained their armed movements against the junta.
To date, the resistance groups have gained control of nearly 148 townships, leaving only 105 under the junta’s authority, where 78 townships are facing relentless offensives from various anti-junta forces. After losing over 200 military battalion headquarters and important military bases along with over 750 frontline outposts to the revolutionary fighters, the junta soldiers are now conducting indiscriminate airstrikes, artillery shelling and drone attacks on various populated areas.
Many villages and urban localities were set on fire across the country, where over 3.5 million people were displaced due to continuous armed conflicts and violence and compelled them to live in temporary shelters facing acute food, medical and other logistic crises. In many relief camps, essential commodities have been prevented or restricted from being transported and distributed among the affected families by the military authorities. Currently, over 20 million people, including minors and elders, are in growing need of humanitarian assistance. According to the United Nations World Food Programme, no less than 15 million people may face hunger in Myanmar by the year’s end.
For the last several months, the southeast Asian nation of around 55 million underprivileged population has been experiencing a civil war. It has been witnessing relentless armed conflicts between the military rulers and armed groups where the common Burmese nationals have also taken guns on their hands to liberate the poverty stricken country from a group of military dictators, led by senior general Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power four years back after ousting a democratically elected government in Naypyitaw.
That New Delhi has now realised the need to negotiate also with the rebels along with the junta, can it help bring back the Kaladan project on track is to be seen.
*Senior journalist
