COVID-19 Notes
By Dr. Satish K Gupta*
Updates
India reports 2.71 lakh Corona cases in 24 hours
- 2,71,202 new cases recorded in the last 24 hours till 9 am today
- 7,743 total Omicron cases detected so far; an increase of 28.17% since yesterday
- Daily positivity rate (16.28%)
- Weekly Positivity Rate (13.69%)
- Recovery Rate currently at 94.51%
- 1,38,331 recoveries in the last 24 hours increases total recoveries to 3,50,85,721
Omicron has already taken the world for a ride. Cases are rising in exponential manner all over. Giving a damn to the immunity rendered by its predecessors like Delta, Alpha and Beta, Omicron continues to spread pushing the Antibodies aside. At times, Omicron tsunami looks like a new pandemic destined to engulf the whole world. But fortunately there is silver lining. But how far?
Let’s analyse the effect of Omicron in some countries who have been in front. Data can help predict the future trends for India and plan accordingly.
Germany
The 3rd (Omicron) wave started in Germany around September 28, 2021 and the peak reached on November 28, 2021. In Omicron peak Germany saw 2.27 times more cases than the previous peak of October 2020, suggesting that Omicron had a transmission rate of 2.27 times than its ancestors.
However, Hospital bed occupancy was 77% or 0.77 times. And deaths were 0.37 times as seen during the second wave in October 2020.
Vaccination in Germany
At least 1 vaccine dose to 74.2% of its population.
Full two doses to 71.7% of population.
44.7 booster doses per 100 people.
In Germany, Omicron was 2.27 times more transmissible and ~3 times less virulent in causing deaths.
Spain
Spain followed Germany by a gap of one month
3rd (Omicron) wave started in Spain around October 28, 2021, peak reached on January 10, 2022 but cases are still rising. So far peak case load is 3 times of earlier peak seen in December 2020.
As of December 28, 2021, when cases were 2.75x times, hospital bed occupancy was 37% or 0.37 times, and deaths were 0.12 times as seen during the second wave of December 2020.
In Spain, Omicron has been approximately 3 times more transmissible and 8 times milder than previous variants. Is it the effect of high vaccination coverage? It is noteworthy that Spain is one of the most highly vaccinated nations of Europe.
To this day, Spain has administered:
At least 1 vaccine dose to 86% of its population.
All doses of the original protocol to 81.5% of its population.
35.2 booster doses per 100 people.
The United Kingdom
The 3rd (Omicron) wave started in the UK around November 10, 2021.
Peak reached on January 6, 2022, with 3.05 times more cases than December 2020.
As of December 27, 2021, when cases were 2.2x times, hospital bed occupancy was 47% or 0.47 times. And deaths were 0.2 times as seen during second wave in December 2020.
Vaccination in UK
At least 1 vaccine dose to 76.3% of its population.
All doses of the original protocol to 70% of its population.
52.7 booster doses per 100 people.
In the UK, Omicron has been approximately 2.2 times more transmissible and 5 times less virulent than previous variants.
Israel
3rd wave started around December 1, 2021.
Peak as seen on January 12, 2022 showed 4 times more case transmission. But still cases continue to rise further.
As of 10 January when cases were 2.85x times
Hospital bed occupancy 44% or 0.44 times.
Deaths were 0.12 times as seen during the second wave in November 2020.
Vaccination in Israel
At least 1 vaccine dose to 71.7% of its population.
All doses of the original protocol to 64.5% of its population.
52.1 booster doses per 100 people.
In Israel Omicron has been ~4 times more transmissible and 2.25 times less virulent than previous variants.
See the following tables containing all data
Why are these differences in transmission and virulence of virus despite close boundaries?
Differences between countries and between waves may arise from factors such as:
- the number of vaccine doses administered per person;
- immunity from previous infections;
- the variants that are dominant within the population;
- the demographics of the population;
- and the demographics of people who have been vaccinated.
USA has been showing a graph with consistently high transmission probably because of mixed population of vaccine lovers as well as anti-vaxxers.
India
India had followed the UK pattern in past. The third wave in India started around December 25 , 2021 and it may take about two months to peak.
Peak may be seen around February 25, 2022.
Early trends show present case load of 2.71 lakh cases on January 16, 2022 with around 315 deaths. Similar case load was seen in India around April 18, 2021 with ~ 1761 deaths. So it seems that virus is 5 to 6 times less virulent in India.
Delhi which remains ahead of rest of the country by a month has nearly 15% bed occupancy as of now suggesting similar trends.
Vaccination in India
India has so far vaccinated
66% population with one dose;
47%population has received both doses;
3.3 million doses of booster have been given.
If at peak the cases rise to 2.5 to 3.5 times the peak of the second wave, the figures may reach 10 to 14 lakh cases a day and deaths may touch 1250 to 1600 per day. It would be very unfortunate situation but unlikely to overwhelm the Health Care System like the second wave.But these are earlier trends. Let’s see how things unfold for India.
Also read: Tracing the history: Can a vaccine be developed faster than COVID vaccine?
*Dr. Satish K Gupta is an MD in Medicines, a Visiting Senior Consultant Physician and Internist at Max Super Speciality Hospital, and a Clinical Assistant Professor at GS Medical College, Chaudhary Charan Singh University, Meerut. He is the author of Journey of COVID in India: A Doctor’s Perspective.
