Jharkhand Election 2024: Which way will the scale tip?

Ranchi: As pundits predict a ‘photo finish’ in the state elections in Jharkhand which goes to poll on November 13, 2024, Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who is also the working president of the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), is banking on the tribal votes and has gone to the extent of claiming that he doesn’t require any non-tribal votes to win elections this time. Tribals make up almost 26.2 per cent of the electorate in Jharkhand, which has 28 constituencies reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs). 

The question being asked is by making such a statement, whether the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is showing the same “arrogance” that its predecessor, the Bharatiya Janata Party, had shown in the last state elections. 

In 2019, when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party lost the elections in Jharkhand, many blamed the decision of the party to ignore any alliance and go alone in the polls then because of an “overconfident and arrogant” chief minister Raghuvar Das, who had given the slogan ‘65 paar‘ (Beyond 65). The BJP could win only 25 of the 81 state assembly seats then and Das tasted defeat at the hands of rebel Saryu Roy, a party veteran who was denied the BJP ticket and contested as an Independent candidate. After the 2019 Assembly election, Roy and some others joined the National Democratic Alliance in support of the BJP to take the NDA’s strength to 31 seats in the Jharkhand House. This time, the NDA will be required to win at least 10 more seats to form the government. In that case, the INDI Alliance comprising the JMM and the Congress Party, which has 50 seats, will have to lose more than 10 seats.

This time, with Roy back in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold, the NDA also hopes to gain after Champai Soren quit JMM and joined the NDA as he felt humiliated to be a stop-gap chief minister when Hemant was jailed in a land scam in January 2024 before securing bail in June and resuming as CM on July 4, 2024. Champai has been a member of the Jharkhand Legislative Assembly since 2000. 

It is therefore imperative to analyse Hemant Soren’s emphasis on tribal votes in this light. When he talks about tribal votes, it appears to be a calculated move since the JMM-led INDI Alliance takes the support of Muslims for granted.

Jharkhand is divided into 5 sub-regions: North and South Chotanagpur, Kolhan, Santhal Pargana and Palamu.

In South Chotanagpur,  the Orao and Munda belt, with the state capital region Ranchi also falling in the region, the BJP bagged only 6 of the 15 seats last time. This time, therefore, it is making an all-out effort to gain some seats in Gumla, Lohardaga and Simdega, where it had gone blank.

In North Chotanagpur the BJP could win only 10 out of 25 seats in 2019. This time due to the entry of Jairam Mahto, the situation has become very fluid. He is a student leader of Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha, with a strong anti-Bihari image. He is hurting not just the NDA but also the JMM and the Congress Party here. He is expected to make a dent in the traditional kurmi and OBC vote banks of the BJP and its allies, especially the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). As it is, AJSU candidates in Gomia, Ramgarh, and Dumri are facing tough competition from their rivals. Jairam may win 2 to 3 seats from here as he comes from the Kurmi caste, which has more than 15 per cent votes. In the politics of the state, this caste is considered to be the most influential after the tribals (26.2 per cent).

In Santhal Pargana, out of 18 seats, the BJP bagged only 4 seats last time. However, the ground reports suggest that this time there may be a marginal improvement for the saffron brigade and it may get 5 to 6 seats from the region.

In Palamu region the BJP had won 5 out of 9 seats last time and this time also, analysts feel, the situation may remain more or less the same.

It is in the Kolhan region where both Saryu Roy and Champai Soren are expected to make their presence felt. Here the BJP had lost all 14 seats in 2019. This time due to the coming of Champai and Roy to the NDA fold, the situation has somewhat changed. According to field reports, the NDA might win 6 to 7 seats in Kolhan which might prove to be a game changer for the BJP. However, observers say that while Saryu Rai was a great factor in the 2019 Assembly election, this time he is fighting very hard to defeat Banna Gupta of the Congress Party who is a minister in the present state government. With the huge Muslim population of the Mango area, Roy seems to be fighting for his survival. His detractors say in such a situation he may not be affecting other seats of Kolhan this time.

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As usual, it is always difficult to make predictions. This time, the victory margin is also predicted to be much less than in the last election given that, unlike last time, the BJP is contesting with its alliance partners including the All Jharkhand Students Union and Lok Jantantrik Party.

The INDI Alliance is intact and is contesting 78 out of 81 seats, while there is a “friendly fight” in the remaining three seats. This is expected to consolidate votes thus narrowing down the margin of win.

The JMM also pins its hopes on the newly launched Maiya scheme which is aimed at supporting women, particularly mothers, by providing them with financial assistance; and free electricity up to 200 units. Through the Maiya scheme, the state government has been giving Rs. 1000 to every female in the age group between 18 and 49. In the last 3 months, the state government has thus doled out Rs 3000 to almost 50 lakh women in the state. The amount has been enhanced to 2500 from December 2024. 

Moreover, the entry of Hemant Soren’s wife Kalpana Soren and Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sarma of the BJP is also seen as a game-changer.

Kalpana, who won the Gandey constituency by-poll for MLA in 2024, is considered to have very good oratory power. Her photogenic face is also a big crowd-puller. She is fluent in Hindi, Santhali and Oriya. In her election rallies, she has been raising issues such as Adivasi Asmita, the wrongs done to Hemant Soren and the benefits of the Maiya scheme. She has emerged as the star campaigner of the JMM and is proving to be a great crowd-puller.

The  BJP, without the entry of Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sarma, also the co-incharge of Jharkhand for his party, as its star campaigner, was seen nowhere in the scene. 

Wary of his presence, the INDI Alliance has targeted him, accusing  Sarma of making “inflammatory and divisive speeches” during an election rally in Sarath in Deoghar (Santhal Pargana) in Jharkhand.

The contest is tight and the BJP is harping on corruption allegations against the Hemant Soren government, the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration in Santhal Pargana, Paper leaks, and land scams.The BJP slogan this time is “Roti, beti aur mati ki pukaar“. The party has promised in its manifesto, 5 lakh new jobs, a Uniform Civil Code, making cooking gas cylinders available for Rs 500 per cylinder with two free cylinders during Rakhi and Diwali, Go Go Didi Yojna to provide Rs 2100 per month for every adult female, a 300 unit electric subsidy, and action against corrupt deals of the JMM government.

Banking heavily on the tribal and Muslim votes, the JMM harping on the Adivasi and Jharkhandi pride in a contest which, in all likelihood, is heading for a photo finish.

The Kolhan and North Chotanagpur regions will likely decide the final outcome of the elections. If the BJP can secure 12 to 13 additional seats from this region, it can scrape through and form the government. Still, North Chotanagpur is proving to be very difficult to predict.

– global bihari bureau