Is military junta losing control in Myanmar?

By Nava Thakuria*

The ongoing confrontation between the Myanmar military junta and ethnic rebels supported by civilian armed forces carries the potential to change the political history of the Southeast Asian nation forever. A country of 55 million population with varied ethnicities has witnessed almost a civil war in the last few months where the military rulers have indulged in a brutal crackdown against the pro-democracy activists across the country. They are responded to by public forces in various shapes and sizes resulting in the death of thousands and the displacement of millions of families to escape the violence erupting in various localities.

“As of 31 December 2023, there were at least 29,440 armed clashes and attacks against civilians since the military coup that took place on 1 February 2021. As of 18 December, the number of displaced people in Burma (Myanmar) reached 2.6 million, 660,000 were newly displaced since 27 October (the day the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched a combined offensive against the military regime in NayPieTaw) as the junta soldiers continued their violent actions,” said Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, a regional network engaged in advocacy, campaigns and capacity building to establish a free and democratic Myanmar, in its latest report.

The report said that the alliance of three ethnic armed groups (Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army) has already taken over 400 junta bases across the country since it launched ‘Operation 1027’ on October 27, 2023.

The military regime led by Min Aung Hlaing has burnt over 440 bodies of anti-junta activists in 156 recorded cases, asserted the forum adding that the junta has lately broken the China-brokered temporary ceasefire with Three Brotherhood Alliance members by air & artillery strikes on civilian population. The junta soldiers have even bombed a museum (also a proposed UNESCO world heritage site) in Arakan (Rakhine) State in western Myanmar.

As the new year 2024 brings more news on victories by the pro-people armed forces, the junta continues lashing out in retaliation with large numbers of indiscriminate airstrikes, massacres and other atrocities inflicted upon the people of Myanmar, said Progressive Voice, a participatory rights-based policy research and advocacy organization, adding that Myanmar people have had enough of this violent, illegitimate military junta, and have made immense sacrifices in the nearly three years since the failed coup attempt to dismantle the military and build a new federal democracy. But, going into 2024, there is a sense of optimism among the Myanmar public catalyzed by the successes of Operation 1027 and complementary activities, it stated in a weekly briefing.

Moving into the new year, one can expect that the momentum built by the Myanmar people with nearly three years of brave work, determination and a dignified struggle will be visible globally and the international community will support their sustained democratic will. With more meaningful and substantial support from international actors, and with legitimate cooperation and coordination among revolutionary organizations, not only can the atrocious military regime be dismantled, but also preparations for transitional arrangements for their common political agenda of genuine federal democracy can be achieved, it concluded saying that this momentum can translate into liberation, systemic change, and the establishment of an inclusive federal democracy with genuine peace.

*Senior journalist and South and Southeast Asia representative of the Press Emblem Campaign, a Geneva-based global media safety and rights body.