By Shankar Raj*
Washington: Surveys have indicated that Democratic Party nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris has made a strong start on her extraordinary task of turning around an election that looked hopeless for the Democratic party within the space of a few months. But they also reflect Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s enduring sway among millions of Americans in his third presidential election — eight years after he won his first.
Kamala Harris leads in popular votes, but Donald Trump is strong in the electoral college which is vital for a win.
While Kamala has gained a small lead of just over 2% over Trump, according to various pre-poll surveys, their race remains well within the margin of error and too close to call. This is especially the case when looking at the Electoral College.
The surveys showed that neither candidate has been able to open an advantage of 5 points or more in the national survey polls which is crucial in the race to the White House race.
The fact that no one has led by at least 5 points this cycle is noteworthy because it’s incredibly rare. Even in races that end up being very close, one candidate at some point almost always builds a significant advantage. This year, most voters seem locked in.
But credit should be given to Kamala for making up the ground lost by ageing President Joe Biden after the first debate with Trump in which Biden was steam-rolled by his predecessor.
Also read: US Presidential Election 2024: Closest race in past 60 years
Rewinding, the big change in the fortunes of the Democratic Party came after ageing President Joe Biden gave way to his young Vice President Kamala Harris, 58. And after that things started looking up and a major swing came when Kamala trounced her dramatically vociferous rival Trump in the second debate.
In the second debate, Kamala put up a stiff fight in her first face-to-face presidential debate against her opponent, clawing her way to under his skin and throwing baits which a tired-looking former president got hooked on.
No doubt won as celebrity superstar singer Taylor Smith lost no time in endorsing Kamala as the social media swung massively in favour of the vice president. She said in a post that the vice president “fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.”
And registered voters who watched the debate voted 63% to 37% in favour of Kamala saying she turned in a better performance. Prior to the debate, the same voters were evenly split on which candidate would perform more strongly, with 50% saying Kamala would do so and 50% that Trump would.
This new poll marks a big reverse swing from the results of the first debate where Trump had Biden for ‘dinner’.
Very unlike Trump, Kamala had her moments of glory when she bluntly told her opponent on his face that she was not Biden, indicating two things – that she cannot be easily run over and, secondly, she is on her own and had moved away from her boss, President Biden.
Kamala directly addressed Trump while the former president consistently refused to lock his eyes with her and only kept rolling his eyes looking up at the ceiling, showing signs of desperation.
Biggest Knock
The biggest knock that Trump got was when Kamala threw a curve ball at him saying that he should remember that 81 million people fired him in the last elections. The former president was left speechless.
Trump had his brief moments when he roiled Kamala on immigration and a torn economy. “She has ruined the economy, thrown open our borders to criminals and mentally ill people who are stealing our jobs and threatening peaceful neighbourhoods; she has ruined America,” he repeatedly said.
But Trump was badly cornered when the question of abortion came up and was once again caught dishing out a false claim saying that the Democratic Party favoured slaughtering unwanted new-borns. Kamala immediately called him out and said “The former president does not know that women have a right over their bodies,” Kamala said; this resonated well with many women.
Trump also made an outrageous claim that Haitians were eating their White neighbours’ pet cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio. This was stoutly denied by the Mayor of Springfield.
After the debate, Trump showed signs of defeat when he said he would not debate anymore. “I have to think about it, but if you won the debate, I sort of think maybe I shouldn’t do it.”
“I think it was the best debate that I’ve ever personally that I’ve had,” Trump said.
But debates have never won an election. The road to the White House may cling on a deadlocked fight between Trump and Kamala for Georgia and Pennsylvania, two battleground states that have been decisive in crowning the last two presidents, media reports indicated.
The 2024 US presidential election in November is likely to go down to the wire and will be the closest of the century. In fact, it is the closest race for the White House in the past 60 years.
One would have to go back to the 1960 campaign to find a race in which the major-party nominees were always within 5 points of each other in an average of the national polling. Every presidential year since then has had at least for three weeks when one candidate was up by 5 points or more.
A 3-point edge in the national polls is far from secure for Kamala. Since 1948, the average difference between the polls on the eve of the election and the Election Day result has been above 3 points. Some years, like 2020, the error rate is even higher.
Strong Start
Despite a strong start by Kamala, some analysts are even speaking of a possible tie. So, what happens if there’s a tie in 2024? Be ready for a ‘contingent election,’ say experts.
With two presidential candidates fighting over a mere 538 Electoral College votes, a tie scenario is more than possible, said a poll observer. It’s actually kind of surprising there has only been one tied election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
That tie was the result of a failure of coordination by Democratic-Republicans, but it led to the nation’s first “contingent election” where the process of election results will move from the Electoral College to the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, election observers say that delays in counting mail ballots could give the public a false sense of who is winning the election. That could create a potential “red mirage” that would show the Republican candidate ahead initially before more Democratic-leaning absentee ballots are processed and added to the tally. This could potentially leave an opening for false narratives about election fraud to flourish as the country awaits results.
Rule Change
In Georgia, approval of a controversial rule change that requires workers to hand-count the number of ballots cast at precincts on Election Day could delay the results of the presidential election in a key battleground state.
The bottom line is that this year’s presidential race is as close as it could be. One tiny shift in either direction could make all the difference in the world.
Even Kamala’s dominating debate performance over Trump – according to the voters – has only appeared to move the dial by a few points. But perhaps the more important reason this election is too close to call is that this isn’t a national election. Instead, it is a race to 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College.
Trump is likely to be in a better position in the Electoral College than the popular vote because of his coalition (i.e., White voters without a college degree are overrepresented in key battleground states). One estimate suggests that Kamala would need to win the popular vote by greater than 3 points to be considered a clear favourite in the Electoral College.
Clinton Rewind
In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the US predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Media outlets and pollsters took the heat for failing to project a victory for Trump. The polls were ultimately right about the popular vote. But they missed the mark in key swing states that tilted the Electoral College toward Trump.
This time the media is cautious. Various polls have shown that Kamala has vastly improved her party’s chances. However, Trump, despite weeks of failing to find a coherent anti-Kamala message, still has a serious shot at pulling off one of the most stunning political comebacks in US history. Strong showings in a few key states could land him back in the Oval Office, analysts said.
Meanwhile, amidst all the swirling controversies around him, Trump indicated that this will be his last election ‘if he loses’ the Nov 5 polls. “That will be it” in an interview released on Sunday.
The 78-year-old former president told Sharyl Attkisson’s “Full Measure” programme recorded at his Florida resort: “No I don’t. I think that will be — that will be it. I don’t see that at all,” when asked if will run again for the White House in four years if he loses the 2024 elections.
He was quick to add: “Hopefully, we will be successful.”
Loomer Headache
Amidst all this, the Republicans have other things to handle. The party is scratching its head over Laura Loomer, a far-right social media activist who feeds Trump with a daily dose of conspiracy theories that have made the former president sound like a joker.
It was Loomer who was reportedly behind the theory that immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating the pet dogs and cats of their White neighbours. She then said if Kamala Harris, who is half Indian, wins, “the White House will smell like curry & White House speeches will be facilitated via a call centre.”
Many asked her to pull down the post saying it does not represent Trump. She later pulled it down saying it was “just a joke”.
The party also found a hot potato land on its lap when Mark Robinson, the party’s controversial and socially conservative party nominee for governor of North Carolina had once called himself a Nazi, supported slavery and made a series of highly inflammatory comments on a pornography website’s message board apart from abusing civil rights leader Martin Luther King in uncivilized language.
North Carolina is a crucial state with 16 electoral votes that carries with it the potential to swing the presidential elections either way. Robinson was a fringe candidate that the Republican Party chose, ignoring a more moderate bishop who was also in the reckoning.
Digging into Robinson’s embarrassing past of a decade ago, CNN’s KFile released evidence of the governor candidate calling himself a “black NAZI!” and had expressed support for reinstating slavery.
In an interview with CNN, Robinson repeatedly denied that he made the comments on Nude Africa.
“This is not us. These are not our words. And this is not anything that is characteristic of me,” Robinson said. Presented with the laundry list connecting him with the minisoldr username on Nude Africa, Robinson said, “I’m not going to get into the minutia of how somebody manufactured this, these salacious tabloid lies.”
In between, Trump survived two assassination bids. Initially, he blamed the Democratic Party and later, Iran.
The coming days would be crucial. It is to be seen who would be able to build a lead of over 5%. It is indeed going to be a close race to the White House. Anything is possible: A win for Kamala, a win for Trump, a deadlock and, of course, confusion and a repeat of the January 6, 2020 attack on Capitol Hill.
*Shankar Raj is a former editor of The New Indian Express, Karnataka and Kerala, and writes regularly on current affairs.
