COVID-19 Notes
By Dr Satish K Gupta*
Omicron was discovered in late November 2021 and slowly became the dominant virus the world over replacing the dominant Delta Variant. High transmissibility and lower virulence had been its prime characteristics. As it wiped off the dangerous Delta variant from Virosphere, came the popular belief that Omicron is a Vaccine having descended to save the World. *Also, people infected with Omicron showed high neutralizing antibodies capable of blocking all previous versions like alpha beta gamma or delta strengthening the widespread belief*. However, in some countries, the death toll during the early third wave became higher than the previous waves portraying the Omicron as a villain.
The opponents of the idea of Omicron vaccine talked of relatively higher vaccination in protected countries as the main reason for better mortality statistics while the proponents blamed the remaining Delta infection as the cause of higher mortality*. Hence, the debate continues.
Let’s analyze
How do key COVID-19 metrics compare to previous waves?
How are confirmed cases translating into hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths now that many have been vaccinated?
The charts below show one way to do this. They visualize the main COVID metrics relative to the peak of the last wave. The peak of the last wave happened before the population was widely vaccinated. In this representation of the data, if confirmed cases increase but hospitalizations and deaths increase to a lesser extent, it will mean that the many reported cases are leading to fewer severe forms of the disease, and fewer deaths.
Also read: Understanding COVID-19: What are nasal vaccines?
In this post, we show these comparisons for Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, Israel, and Germany. All five countries experienced a wave of infections in late 2020/early 2021, just before vaccination started.
Spain
To this day, Spain has administered:
💧At least 1 vaccine dose to 87.8% of its population
💧All doses of the original protocol to 83.1% of its population
💦50.8 booster doses per 100 people
Spain covid cases hospital ICU deaths:
One can see that during Third-Wave infections mounted to nearly 3.7 times the First wave while mortality decreased to one-third of the First Wave. Overall the mortality during the Omicron wave can be said to be ~10 times lesser than the First Wave.
United Kingdom
To this day, the United Kingdom has administered:
💧At least 1 vaccine dose to 77.1% of its population
💧All doses of the original protocol to 71.7% of its population
💦55.7 booster doses per 100 people
The UK covid cases hospital ICU deaths:
One can see that during Third-Wave infections mounted to nearly 3 times the First Wave while mortality decreased to one-fifth of the earlier Wave. Overall the mortality during the Omicron dominant wave can be said to be ~15 times lesser than the First Wave in the UK.
United States
To this day, the United States has administered:
💧At least 1 vaccine dose to 76.1% of its population
💧All doses of the original protocol to 64.4% of its population
💦27.9 booster doses per 100 people
The US covid cases hospital ICU deaths:
The US is one country where the absolute number of deaths have surpassed the previous figures mounting pressure on health infra and creating havoc. Nevertheless on a percentage point basis peak deaths during the Third Wave was nearly 57.7% of baseline pre-vaccination wave while infections were 3.22 times making overall mortality during the Omicron Dominant Third-Wave 5.6 times lesser than the First Wave.
Israel
To this day, Israel has administered:
💧At least 1 vaccine dose to 72.1% of its population
💧All doses of the original protocol to 65.8% of its population
💦55.7 booster doses per 100 people
Israel covid cases hospital ICU deaths:
Isreal is the only country where the absolute number as well percentage of deaths have surpassed the previous figures. Peak Deaths deaths during the third were nearly 109% of baseline pre-vaccination wave. Nevertheless, infections were ~9 times making overall mortality during the Omicron Dominant Third-Wave 8.3 times lesser than the earlier prevaccination wave.
Germany
To this day, Germany has administered:
💧At least 1 vaccine dose to 75.5% of its population*
💧All doses of the original protocol to 74.4% of its population
💦55.7 booster doses per 100 people
Germany covid cases hospital ICU deaths:
Germany is peculiar in having shown two-third waves. However, the earlier November 2021 wave can be attributed to Delta infection and February 2021 wave being truly Omicron wave during which infections increased to 7.5 times but fortunately the mortality remained nearly 100 times lesser.
Mortality statistics of India, South Korea, South Africa has been rather very favourable labelling Omicron as a true vaccine.
A study by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) of some 67,200 infections confirmed since December showed the Omicron variant’s severity and death rates averaged 0.38% and 0.18%, respectively, compared with 1.4% and 0.7% for the Delta cases.
In the above analysis infections and deaths in no two nations can be compared despite comparable vaccination statistics but a clear trend of improving mortality in the recent wave is evident. *To divide this dividend among doctors for better management, scientists for robust vaccines or Omicron for being kind may not be absolutely feasible*. Political brass truly deserves huge credits for untiring efforts during various waves.
Differences between countries and between waves may arise from factors such as: the number of vaccine doses administered per person; immunity from previous infections; the variants that are dominant within the population; the demographics of the population; and the demographics of people who have been vaccinated.
Back to the basic question if Omicron is Universal Vaccine created by God to save Mankind, may find an answer in times to come. But as of now, it seems that a large human population has received nature’s dose including the anti-vaxers and many of them have been held accountable as well. Obviously, no nation badly bitten by the Omicron wave would be willing to accept calling Omicron a vaccine. However, lesser vaccinated nations with low mortality would love to welcome the gesture. Give it trophies or brickbats Omicron seems to have drawn curtains on the pandemic at least for as of now.
*Dr. Satish K Gupta is an MD in Medicines, a Visiting Senior Consultant Physician and Internist at Max Super Speciality Hospital, and a Clinical Assistant Professor at GS Medical College, Chaudhary Charan Singh University, Meerut. He is the author of Journey of COVID in India: A Doctor’s Perspective.
