The World Around Us
By Venkatesh Raghavan
Amidst cryptic denial from the Russian leadership about its plans to carry out a large-scale military action against Ukraine, intelligence sources from the West, monitoring troop movements on the ground claimed President Vladimir Putin seems all set to launch a massive offensive. Coming close on heels of the US President Joe Biden’s video talks with his Russian counterpart on Tuesday December 7, 2021, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State cited evidence provided by intelligence inputs about a “large scale attack” to be launched from across Ukraine’s border.
On December 8, 2021, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed that the military activity of the United States and NATO member states along the perimeter of Russia’s borders, including military flights and dangerous manoeuvres by naval ships, continues to mount. “The US military and its NATO allies have gone from attempts to test the strength of our border protection system to provocations against civilian aircraft, which jeopardises the safety of the airspace and puts human lives in danger,” she said.
In connection with these provocative actions, on December 8, the US Embassy in Moscow received a note of protest warning about the dangerous consequences of this “reckless behaviour”.
Zakharova minced no words when she warned the US and stated, “Reserving the right to respond to the corresponding challenges posed by the United States and NATO members, we call for a substantive dialogue on security guarantees and a discussion of pathways to reduce military and political tensions and to prevent dangerous incidents in the air and at sea. Otherwise, all the means at our disposal will be used to prevent and neutralise emerging threats.”
With claims and counterclaims running high, Blinken did concede that there was lack of clarity as to whether Putin would go in for a full-scale invasion. The Russian side of the story however, talked about neighboring Ukraine building up on its troop movements besides denying any intentions it had of executing a military invasion.
Biden’s talk with Putin partly centered on the expression of concern over the menacing Russian troop movements that kept mounting at its border with Ukraine. The concerns were raised after authorities from Ukraine reported the massive presence of armored vehicles and electronic warfare systems at their border with Russia. Besides, the Russian troops manning the shared border were placed at a massive 94,000.
Stressing on continued US support and commitment towards Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, President Biden also sought cooperation in areas of common interest like strategic stability, ransomware and geopolitical situation in regions like Iran with his Russian counterpart Putin. Many US state officials anticipated that the troop movements and buildups across the borders could culminate into a full scale war by the end of January 2022. Biden on his part expressed the sentiment that if faced with the worst case, implying Putin attempting a massive invasion, he would construe to make it a very difficult to execute venture.
Ukrainian Defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov too concurred with the West’s intelligence inputs, anticipating a Russian offensive by January end 2022. US and its Western allies have already put in place a proposal to impose economic sanctions in the event the Russian troops mount a military offensive. As of now, Ukraine, though not a member of the NATO alliance, does enjoy weapons and arms training support from the Western alliance. A significant number of US Javelin anti-tank missiles figure in its weaponry.
Russian officials, when pressed for reaction, responded, saying, “Troops present at our shared border are just performing military exercises and we have no intention of carrying out any invasion.” The officials also pointed out that NATO forces were proactively holding military drills in the Black sea region off the Crimean coast. In addition, the number of Ukrainian troops present at the shared border is around 125,000, the official concluded.
Though the European allies of the US are hoping to avoid a conflict situation escalating into a full scale war, it was reported that NATO forces were fully prepared for such an eventuality. While the current round of video chat between Biden and Putin seems to have opened up a diplomatic channel that can pave the way for mitigation of the strained US-Russia ties, much would depend on clarity over Putin’s military strategy.
Interestingly, the latest round of talks between the two leaders called for follow-up on part of counterparts from both sides, meaning a leeway that leaves open the diplomatic channel to tide over the storm. However, the questions still loom large. Will the conflict situation get resolved? What are the chances of a war breaking out?
