Perspective
By G Krishna Mohan Rao
For the 16 Rajya Sabha seats, where elections were held on June 10, 2022, it is significant that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got 8 seats of which 3 were bonus seats—one each in Haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka. As per the numbers, the BJP was expected to win only 5 seats. However, the party managed to win extra three seats through calculations and a second preferential vote. Congress won 5 and its allies 3. Though Congress and its allies gave a determined fight, they could not withstand BJP’s “ constant battle readiness”, from Panchayat to parliament with utmost zeal.
In Maharashtra, the BJP outsmarted the ruling Congress-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, in the number game. Full credit is being given to BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis for managing the Independents. So also in Haryana, the BJP won by a fraction through a second preferential vote, where a Congress General Secretary Ajay Maken had to lose in the hands of the BJP-backed independent Kartikeya Sharma. The group-ism within the Congress also resulted in the defeat of its candidate. Congress removed Haryana MLA Kuldeep Bishnoi from all party posts, including the Congress Working Committee, after he cross-voted for the BJP-backed Independent. Bishnoi, who belonged to the anti- Hooda camp, is now set to quit the party or be ousted.
The victory of BJP’s Dhanajaya Mahadik over MVA candidate Sanjay Pawar is ostensibly a disturbing signal for Maharastra’s ruling alliance. There are murmurs in political circles over the stability of the MVA government led by Uddhav Thackeray. In fact, NCP chief Sharad Pawar was quick enough to issue a statement that the Rajya Sabha result would not affect the stability of the government. He said the result was not shocking for him and added that the sixth seat fought by the Shiv Sena was a risk as the gap of votes was huge.
The MVA government was banking on the votes of Independents and smaller parties to get their sixth candidate elected, but in the end, an important section of these MLAs voted for the BJP. The strategy of MVA back room boys failed. In the end, the MVA missed its calculations and according to Shiv Sena MP, Sanjay Raut, six-seven independent MLAs voted for the BJP instead of the MVA.
However, political circles feel that the defeat of the Shiv Sena candidate comes at a time when the legislative council elections in the state are around the corner. This could be a shot in the arm for the BJP, which seeks to end Shiv Sena’s control over the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). BJP leader Fadnavis who is a former chief minister, who won over the Independents and members of the smaller parties to trump the MVA, has seemingly emerged stronger now.
In Karnataka also BJP managed to win an additional seat outsmarting the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular). In fact, BJP won 3 of the 4 seats while the Congress bagged one and the JD(S) returned empty-handed. Here despite lacking adequate numbers, the BJP won the third seat taking advantage of the tussle between the Congress and the JD( S) over the electoral arrangement. Here the JD(S) MLA cross-voted for the BJP. With 122 MLAs, the BJP was expected to easily win two seats as each candidate needed 45 first preference votes. However, the decision of Congress and JD(S) to contest the fourth seat, despite having insufficient votes, forced BJP to field Lehar Singh Siroya, who eventually won.
Here in Karnataka, the Congress went for an extra seat, not with the optimism of winning but with the strategy to further diminish ally-turned-foe JD(S). The Congress tried to marginalise the Gowda outfit, to position itself better on the Vokkaliga turf for the assembly elections in 2023. The surprise entry of two media barons in Haryana and Rajasthan with the support of the BJP had forced the Congress Party to shift its MLAs to holiday resorts.
However, surprisingly in Rajasthan, the ruling Congress won 3 of the 4 Rajya Sabha seats, overcoming the challenge posed by the BJP-backed Independent (media baron) candidate Subhash Chandra. The Congress candidates who won are Randeep Surjewala, Mukul Wasnik and Pramod Tiwari. The fourth seat went to the BJP. For the Congress, bogged down by repeated defeats and defections post-2019, the victory in Rajasthan was comforting as it demonstrated better management against its nemesis elsewhere, the BJP. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot cornered the credit for the party’s success. The party had only 108 MLAs in the 200-member assembly.
To sum up, for the 57 Rajya Sabha seats that fell vacant, 41 were elected unopposed while 16 went to elections on Friday, June 10, 2022. In other words, with the BJP winning 22 of the 57 seats that went to the polls, the strength of the ruling BJP in the Rajya Sabha now stands at 92, three less than what it had before the biennial elections. In terms of implications for the July 18 Presidential polls, the BJP-led NDA is down with 5 MPs, UPA has gained 4, and smaller parties put together are up by one MP.
