New Delhi: The country as a whole is likely to receive 96% of the southwest monsoon from June to September and farmers need not worry about deficient rainfall, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr M. Ravichandran said here today. Briefing the media about the summary of the 2023 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall, he said there will be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5% (Normal). He added the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5% (Normal).
Dr Ravichandran said, the forecast is based on both dynamical and statistical models, and it suggests that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on data from 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
The five category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole are given below, which suggests a higher probability for monsoon seasonal rainfall to be normal.
April initial conditions have been used for generating the MME forecast for 2023 southwest Monsoon season rainfall.
“Best climate models with the highest skill over the Indian monsoon region have been used to generate MME forecasts,” the Minister said.
Since 2003, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing the operational long-range forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April.
Giving a detailed presentation Director-General, IMD, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that currently, La Nina conditions changed to Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS and other climate model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
The northern hemisphere snow cover areas during February and March 2023 were observed to be below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia has a tendency of general inverse relationship with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall. Dr Mohapatra said IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2023.
Since 2021, IMD has implemented a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country by modifying the existing two-stage forecasting strategy. The new strategy uses both dynamical and statistical forecasting systems. Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system based on coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction centres, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) is used in dynamical forecast system.
The above figure shows the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for tercile categories (above normal, normal and below normal) for the seasonal rainfall (June to September). The spatial distribution suggests normal to above normal rainfall likely over many areas of Peninsular India and adjoining East Central India, Northeast India and over some parts of Northwest India. Normal to below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of Northwest India and parts of Western Central India and some pockets of Northeast India. White-shaded areas within the land represent climatological probabilities.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
Dr Mohapatra pointed out that as sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins.
– global bihari bureau
