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By Venkatesh Raghavan
There is mixed news from the cotton markets about India’s performance in the domestic and export fronts. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has predicted the export figures of the season (ending September 30, 2020) will hit the 50 lakh bales mark, which is an overshoot from the previous estimate by a good 8 lakh bales. The promising situation on India’s export front is attributed to favourable conditions that have come into play. (Each bale comprises 170 kg of cotton.)
However, on the domestic front, there is a sharp dip in the season’s estimates largely because of the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The current consumption estimates for the domestic front stands at 250 lakh bales that turns out to be 30 lakh bales lower than the figures predicted from the previous estimates. The pandemic resulted in disruption because of acute labour shortage.
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Given these export and domestic figures, the carryover stock at the end of the current cotton season (September 30 2020) is estimated to be 102.50 lakh bales.
Meanwhile, CAI has released its July estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning from 1st October 2019. The CAI has increased its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 by 19 lakh bales to 354.50 lakh bales compared to its previous estimate of 335.50 lakh bales made during the last month.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 to July 2020 is 392.40 lakh bales which consists of the arrival of 345.40 lakh bales up to 31st July 2020, imports of 15 lakh bales up to 31st July 2020 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 32 lakh bales at the beginning of the Season on 1st October 2019.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to July 2020 at 206 lakh bales while the export shipments of cotton estimated by the CAI up to 31st July 2020 are 43 lakh bales. Stock at the end of July 2020 is estimated at 143.40 lakh bales including 15 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 128.40 lakh bales with Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) Maharashtra Federation and others that includes Multinationals, traders, and ginners.
The Crop Committee of the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the Season (30th September 2020) at 402.50 lakh bales as against 382.50 lakh bales estimated in the previous month. Total cotton supply estimated now comprises the opening stock of 32 lakh bales at the beginning of the Season on 1st October 2019, crop for the Season estimated now at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 16 lakhs. The imports estimated for the 2019-20 crop year are just half of the previous year’s import estimate of 32 lakh bales.
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