New Delhi: India’s GDP contracted by 7.5 per cent at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2020-21 as compared to 4.4 percent growth in Q2 2019-20, official data released today showed. This is a marked improvement after the gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by a record 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the 2020-21 fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021) as restrictions were imposed on the economic activities not deemed essential during Q1, with a view to contain the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The economy had grown at 3.1% in the January-March quarter — the slowest pace in at least eight years.
In Q2, while the GDP is estimated at ₹ 33.14 lakh crore, as against ₹ 35.84 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20, quarterly Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q2 of 2020-21 is estimated at ₹30.49 lakh crore, as against ₹ 32.78 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.0 percent.
Though the restrictions have been gradually lifted from June 9, there has been an impact on the economic activities. In these circumstances, some other data sources such as GST, interactions with professional bodies etc. were also referred to for corroborative evidence and these were clearly limited.
Manufacturing showed a 0.6 per cent growth in Q2 (July-September) after it had slumped by 39 per cent in Q1, while the agriculture sector grew by 3.4 per cent.
The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December, 2020 (Q3 of 2020- 21) will be on February 26, 2021.
Percentage change in the main indicators used in the estimation are listed below:
The second quarter estimates are based on First Advance Estimates of agricultural production during Kharif season of 2020-21 obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers’ Welfare, estimates of production of major livestock products such as, Milk, Egg, Meat and Wool for Livestock Sector obtained from the Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying and Fish production data from the Department of Fisheries.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP); monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September 2020-21 have been used. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period July-September 2020-21 and the performance of corporate sector during July-September 2020-21 based on data received from BSE/NSE has been taken into account while compiling the estimates.
GDP at Current Prices for Q2 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 47.22 lakh crore, as against ₹ 49.21 lakh crore in Q2 2019-20, showing a contraction of 4.0 percent as compared to 5.9 percent growth in Q2 2019-20. GVA at Basic Prices at Current Prices in Q2 2020-21 is estimated at ₹42.80 lakh crore, as against ₹44.66 lakh crore in Q2 2019-20, showing a contraction of 4.2 percent.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices for H1 (April-September) 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 60.04 lakh crore as against ₹ 71.20 lakh crores during the corresponding period of previous year, showing a contraction of 15.7 percent in H1 2020-21 as against growth of 4.8 percent during the same period last year. GDP at Current Prices for H1 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 85.30 lakh crore as against ₹ 98.39 lakh crores during the corresponding period of previous year, showing a contraction of 13.3 percent in H1 2020-21 as against growth of 7.0 percent during the same period last year.
– globalbihari bureau
