Rome: The famine in the northern governorates of Gaza is projected to occur anytime between now (mid-March) and May 2024 in the most likely scenario and under the assumption of an escalation of the conflict including a ground offensive in Rafah, while humanitarian assistance at scale does not reach those most in need.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) today raised alarm over the rapidly deteriorating hunger crisis in the Gaza Strip where the entire 2.23 million population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity.
FAO stated the escalation of hostilities has halted supplies of water, food and fuel, causing the collapse of all food-related sectors, including vegetable production, livestock production, fisheries and aquaculture. Around 60 to 70 per cent of meat and dairy-producing livestock in Gaza have been either killed or prematurely slaughtered to meet the dire food needs stemming from the conflict.
A new report published today by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) global initiative, further indicated that the entire population in the Gaza Strip is facing high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phases 3 (Crisis), 4 (Emergency) or 5 (Catastrophe). This includes half of the population or about 1.11 million experiencing catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5).
FAO warned that over half of the population of the Gaza Strip (1.11 million people) is expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5), the most severe level in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity scale. This is an increase of 530,000 people (92 per cent) compared to the previous analysis. FAO urged immediate access to deliver urgent and critical assistance at scale as new data reveals that half of the population or about 1.1 million people are experiencing catastrophic food insecurity.
The IPC’s latest data revealed that virtually all households are skipping meals every day and adults are reducing their meals so that children can eat. In the northern governorates, in nearly two-thirds of the households, people went entire days and nights without eating at least 10 times in the last 30 days. Recent data shows that, in the northern governorates, one in three children under the age of two is acutely malnourished.
Compared to the IPC’s previous analysis issued in December 2023, acute food insecurity in the Gaza Strip has deepened and widened with 79 per cent and 92 per cent more people sliding into catastrophic levels of hunger in the current (mid-February – mid-March) and the projected period (mid-March – July), respectively.
In the most likely scenario, both North Gaza and Gaza Governorates are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) with reasonable evidence, with 70% (around 210,000 people) of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Continued conflict and the near-complete lack of access to the northern governorates for humanitarian organizations and commercial trucks will likely compound heightened vulnerabilities and extremely limited food availability, access and utilization, as well as access to healthcare, water, and sanitation. The famine threshold for household acute food insecurity has already been far exceeded and, given the latest data showing a steeply increasing trend in cases of acute malnutrition, it is highly likely that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded. The upward trend in non-trauma mortality is also expected to accelerate, resulting in all famine thresholds likely to be passed imminently.
The southern governorates of Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, and the Governorate of Rafah, are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). However, in a worst-case scenario, these governorates face a risk of Famine through July 2024.
“This updated IPC analysis validates what we all feared – a deepening and rapid deterioration of the food security situation in Gaza. Half of the population is facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity,” said FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol. “This reaches the highest ever recorded level, unlike anything we have ever seen before. In December, the previous IPC report signalled that famine was likely. If no steps are taken to cease hostilities and to provide more humanitarian access, famine is imminent. It could already be occurring. Immediate access is needed to facilitate delivery of urgent and critical assistance at scale.”
FAO recalled it has repeatedly called for urgent measures to save the population of Gaza. In November 2023, Director-General QU Dongyu called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza to ease civilian suffering and to facilitate the delivery of urgent assistance. In March, Qu reiterated FAO’s alarming concerns in a statement delivered during an event organized by the Italian Government: “Peace is a prerequisite for food security and the Right to Food is a basic human right.”
Expressing deep concerns about significant livestock losses, which is indispensable for the livelihoods and the survival of families in Gaza, FAO noted that providing animal feed is not just a way to sustain rural livelihoods or an economic asset for the families involved: keeping a family’s animal alive and productive gives them an at-hand source of protein, nutrition, and milk – especially critical for children.
“As FAO, it is vital that we focus on everything around keeping livestock alive, which is about ensuring access to milk, particularly for children who are malnourished or at risk of malnourishment. Additionally, people need access to nutritious foods and vegetables,” said FAO Director for Emergencies and Resilience, Rein Paulsen.
FAO stated it has mobilized to provide key agricultural supplies to Gaza as soon as conditions allow. The Organization’s initial priority has been to move animal feed, specifically 1,500 tonnes of barley, through one or two of the remaining open border crossings where food distribution is taking place. The 1 500 tonnes of barley FAO hopes to deliver should be sufficient to provide milk for all children under 10 years of age in Gaza, providing around 20 per cent of the World Health Organization’s recommended minimum daily requirement in terms of caloric intake.
In addition, FAO is mobilizing other vital agricultural supplies such as water tanks, veterinary kits and fuel to Gaza, once access is made available, to protect livestock and sustain livelihoods.
About IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is an innovative multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making. By using the IPC classification and analytical approach, Governments, UN Agencies, NGOs, civil society and other relevant actors, work together to determine the severity and magnitude of acute and chronic food insecurity, and acute malnutrition situations in a country, according to internationally recognised standards.
-global bihari bureau
