“The Chinese nuclear modernization is driven by the nuclear modernization programmes of the United States, India, and Russia”
Washington DC: The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) – “a nonpartisan, nonprofit policy research and advocacy organization” which has over 60 Nobel laureates as members of its Board of Sponsors, has claimed in a blog titled “China Is Building A Second Nuclear Missile Silo Field”, published on July 26, 2021 in its website that satellite images reveal that China is building a second nuclear missile silo field.
The blog has been written jointly by Matt Korda, a Research Associate for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, and Hans Kristensen, who is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS, who warn that China’s construction of nearly 250 new silos has serious implications for international relations and China’s role in the world, and that it would be a challenge to reining in China’s nuclear arsenal through arms control. “The United States has been trying to engage China on nuclear issues since the late-1990s, but so far with minimal success,” the FAS blog points out.
The Chinese government has for decades insisted it has a minimum deterrent and that it is not part of any nuclear arms race. Although it remains unclear how many silos will actually be filled with missiles, the massive silo construction and China’s other nuclear modernization programs are on a scale that appears to contradict these polices: the build-up is anything but “minimum” and appears to be part of a race for more nuclear arms to better compete with China’s adversaries.
“The silo construction will likely further deepen military tension, fuel fear of China’s intensions, embolden arguments that arms control and constraints are naïve, and that US and Russian nuclear arsenals cannot be reduced further but instead must be adjusted to take into account the Chinese nuclear build-up,” the FAS blog said.
The disclosure of the second Chinese silo missile field comes only days before US and Russian negotiators meet to discuss strategic stability and potential arms control measures. Responding to the Chinese build-up with more nuclear weapons would be unlikely to produce positive results and could cause China build up even more. Moreover, even when the new silos become operational, the Chinese nuclear arsenal will still to be significantly smaller than those of Russia and the United States.
The researchers said that the Chinese nuclear modernization is driven by more than just missile defenses and this includes the nuclear modernization programmes of the United States, India, and Russia, as well as China’s own ambitions about world power status.
In the blog, Korda and Kristensen say that their discovery follows a report that was published by The Washington Post on June 30, 2021 that had quoted “independent experts” claiming China had begun construction of more than 100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in a desert near the northwestern city of Yumen. These experts had warned that this could signal a major expansion of Beijing’s nuclear capabilities.
The blog mentions that the second missile silo field is located 380 kilometers (240 miles) northwest of the Yumen field near the prefecture-level city of Hami in Eastern Xinjiang. According to them, the Hami missile silo field is in a much earlier stage of development than the Yumen site. “Construction began at the start of March 2021 in the southeastern corner of the complex and continues at a rapid pace. Since then, dome shelters have been erected over at least 14 silos and soil cleared in preparation for construction of another 19 silos. The grid-like outline of the entire complex indicates that it may eventually include approximately 110 silos,” they wrote.
The Hami site was first spotted by Matt Korda, Research Associate for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, using commercial satellite imagery obtained by researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, that “show work underway at scores of sites across a grid covering hundreds of square miles of arid terrain in China’s Gansu province”. Higher resolution images of the site were subsequently provided by Planet.
The 119 nearly identical construction sites contain features that mirror those seen at existing launch facilities for China’s arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, the researchers said and added: “The silos at Hami are positioned in an almost perfect grid pattern, roughly three kilometers apart, with adjacent support facilities.” According to them, construction and organization of the Hami silos are very similar to the 120 silos at the Yumen site, and are also very similar to the approximately one-dozen silos constructed at the Jilantai training area in Inner Mongolia. These shelters are typically removed only after more sensitive construction underneath is completed. Just like the Yumen site, the Hami site spans an area of approximately 800 square kilometers.
The acquisition of more than 100 new missile silos, if completed, would represent a historic shift for China, a country that is believed to possess a relatively modest stockpile of 250 to 350 nuclear weapons. The actual number of new missiles intended for those silos is unknown but could be much smaller, the researchers wrote, pointing out that China had deployed decoy silos in the past.
The discovery follows recent warnings by Pentagon officials about rapid advances in China’s nuclear capability. Admiral Charles Richard, who commands U.S. nuclear forces, had said at a congressional hearing in April this year that a “breathtaking expansion” was underway in China, including an expanding arsenal of Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles and new mobile missile launchers that can be easily hidden from satellites. In addition, the Chinese navy has introduced new nuclear-weapons-capable submarines to its growing fleet. In fact way back on October 1, 2019 itself, the Chinese Communist Party had flaunted “an astonishing array” of new weapons systems, many of them nuclear, in a highly choreographed military parade Tuesday in front of thousands of carefully selected citizens to mark the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
In the latest FAS blog, Korda and Kristensen claim that the silo construction at Yumen and Hami constitutes the most significant expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever. China has for decades operated about 20 silos for liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs. With 120 silos under construction at Yumen, another 110 silos at Hami, a dozen silos at Jilantai, and possibly more silos being added in existing DF-5 deployment areas, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) appears to have approximately 250 silos under construction – more than ten times the number of ICBM silos in operation today.
The researchers point out that the number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia, and constitutes more than half of the size of the entire US ICBM force. “The Chinese missile silo program constitutes the most extensive silo construction since the US and Soviet missile silo construction during the Cold War,” they write.
According to the blog, the 250 new silos under construction are in addition to the force of approximately 100 road-mobile ICBM launchers that The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) – the strategic and tactical Chinese missile force, deploys at more than a dozen bases. “It is unclear how China will operate the new silos, whether it will load all of them with missiles or if a portion will be used as empty decoys. If they are all loaded with single-warhead missiles, then the number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs could potentially increase from about 185 warheads today to as many as 415 warheads. If the new silos are loaded with the new MIRVed DF-41 ICBMs, then Chinese ICBMs could potentially carry more than 875 warheads (assuming 3 warheads per missile) when the Yumen and Hami missile silo fields are completed,” the researchers wrote.
There are several possible reasons why China is building the new silos, the FAS blog says. According to it, regardless of how many silos China ultimately intends to fill with ICBMs, this new missile complex represents a logical reaction to a dynamic arms competition in which multiple nuclear-armed players––including Russia, India, and the United States––are improving both their nuclear and conventional forces as well as missile defense capabilities.
“Although China formally remains committed to its posture of “minimum” nuclear deterrence, it is also responding to the competitive relationship with countries adversaries in order to keep its own force survivable and capable of holding adversarial targets at risk. Thus, while it is unlikely that China will renounce this policy anytime soon, the “minimum” threshold for deterrence will likely continue to shift as China expands its nuclear arsenal,” the researchers said in the blog. According to them, the decision to build the large number of new silos has probably not been caused by a single issue but rather by a combination of factors, listed below in random order:
Ensuring survivability of nuclear retaliatory capability: China is concerned that its current ICBM silos are too vulnerable to US (or Russian) attack. By increasing the number of silos, more ICBMs could potentially survive a preemptive strike and be able to launch their missiles in retaliation. China’s development of its current road-mobile solid-fuel ICBM force was, according to the US Central Intelligence Agency, fuelled by the US Navy’s deployment of Trident II D5 missiles in the Pacific. This action-reaction dynamic is most likely a factor in China’s current modernisation.
Increasing the readiness of the ICBM force: Transitioning from liquid-fuel missiles to solid-fuel missiles in silos will increase the reaction-time of the ICBM force.
Protecting ICBMs against non-nuclear attack: All existing DF-5 silos are within range of US conventional cruise missiles. In contrast, the Yumen and Hami missile silo fields are located deeper inside China than any other Chinese ICBM base (see map below) and out of reach of US conventional missiles.
Overcoming potential effects of US missile defenses: Concerns that missile defenses might undermine China’s retaliatory capability have always been prominent. China has already decided to equip its DF-5B ICBM with multiple warheads (MIRV); each missile can carry up to five. The new DF-41 ICBM is also capable of MIRV and the future JL-3 SLBM will also be capable of carrying multiple warheads. By increasing the number of silos-based solid-fuel missiles and the number of warheads they carry, China would seek to ensure that they can continue to penetrate missile defense systems.
Transitioning to solid-fuel silo missiles: China’s old liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs take too long to fuel before they can launch, making them more vulnerable to attack. Handling liquid fuel is also cumbersome and dangerous. By transitioning to solid-fuel missile silos, survivability, operational procedures, and safety of the ICBM force would be improved.
Transitioning to a peacetime missile alert posture: China’s missiles are thought to be deployed without nuclear warheads installed under normal circumstances. US and Russian ICBMs are deployed fully ready and capable of launching on short notice. Because military competition with the United States is increasing, China can no longer be certain it would have time to arm the missiles that will need to be on alert to improve the credibility of China deterrent. The Pentagon in 2020 asserted that the silos at Jilantai “provide further evidence China is moving to a LOW posture.”
Balancing the ICBM force: Eighty percent of China’s roughly 110 ICBMs are mobile and increasing in numbers. The US military projects that number will reach 150 with about 200 warheads by 2025. Adding more than 200 silos would better balance the Chinese ICBM force between mobile and fixed launchers.
Increasing China’s nuclear strike capability: China’s “minimum deterrence” posture has historically kept nuclear launchers at a relatively low level. But the Chinese leadership might have decided that it needs more missiles with more warheads to hold more adversarial facilities at risk. Adding nearly 250 new silos appears to move China out of the “minimum deterrence” category.
National prestige: China is getting richer and more powerful. Big powers have more missiles, so China needs to have more missiles too, in order to underpin its status as a great power.
The PFA blog refers to the meeting of the the parties to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) later this year (or early next year) to review the progress of the treaty, and says that although the treaty does not explicitly prohibit a country from modernizing or even increasing its nuclear arsenal, reduction and eventually elimination of nuclear weapons are key pillars of the treaty’s goal as reaffirmed by numerous previous NPT conferences. “It is difficult to see how adding nearly 250 nuclear missile silos is consistent with China’s obligation to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament…,” it states.
– global bihari bureau
