By G Krishna Mohan Rao*
The nominations for the Haryana Assembly end tomorrow, September 12, 2024, and the political dangal is gradually reaching its final rounds in the state.
Still, uncertainty prevails about the outcome of the contest. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress Party are the key players, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which fell out with the Congress Party over the seat-sharing arrangements, has turned aggressive and released its second list of nine candidates, of whom six are BJP, Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) turncoats.
Depending on the revolts over the denial of tickets within the BJP and the Congress Party, the AAP is expected to release more lists today and tomorrow. On September 9, the AAP had already released its first list of 20 candidates for the Haryana Assembly elections.
The BJP, in its second list released yesterday, dropped seven sitting MLAs, including two ministers. It sent shock signals to the established seniors in the party, and Union Minister and Gurgaon MP, Rao Inderjit Singh lashed out at the state BJP leadership and challenged the party’s stand that Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini will continue to lead the government should it get the mandate.
Rao Inderjit, a six-time MP from Gurgaon, is himself considered a CM aspirant. He attacked Saini when the latter projected himself as the CM candidate at the party workers’ meet in Rewari.
With the second list, the BJP, which has 41 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in the 90-member Haryana Assembly, has so far named 87 candidates, dropping a total of 16 sitting MLAs. Owing to party heavyweights competing with each other for tickets in the remaining 3 seats, the BJP held back the names till the last minute in— Mahendragarh, Sirsa and NIT Faridabad. There is a sign of relief in the BJP camp, following the failure of talks between the AAP and the Congress. Despite anti-incumbency, the BJP is depending on a split of votes in the opposition camp. In the recent, Lok Sabha polls, the Congress Party and the BJP shared five seats each out of a total of 10 seats and the BJP managed to get 46 per cent vote share.
The collapse of talks between the AAP and Congress was on expected lines as the AAP stuck to its demand of least 10 seats while the Congress Party was adamant on yielding only 5 seats— Jind, Kalayat, Panipat rural, Gurgaon, and Faridabad. Later both said that their alliance was limited to Lok Sabha polls only.
Hopeful of a comeback in Haryana after a decade, the Congress Party has now even started demanding action on the Delhi excise scam, in which AAP leaders are allegedly involved. The AAP hence, retaliated with its own list of candidates, giving a clear signal of confrontation. The AAP Haryana unit chief Sushil Kumar Gupta said the party will fight on all 90 seats and another list of 20 candidates will be released soon.
The Congress Party does not see AAP posing any challenge to its electoral fortune in Haryana. Senior Congress functionaries see a bipolar contest between the Congress Party and the BJP in Haryana.
Congress insiders also said handing over the rural seat Kalayat to AAP would have riled Congress supporters and impeded vote transfer between the allies, benefiting the BJP in the process.
Congress leaders argued that the AAP was an urban party which would dent the BJP more than the Congress, while it wouldn’t be able to garner much support in rural constituencies. It was also pointed out that in the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, AAP had contested 46 seats, but failed to win any.
Political observers predict a neck-to-neck fight between the Congress and the BJP in Haryana, despite the perceived anger of Jat and farmers on the BJP. The Dalits are also apparently not happy with the BJP, but the BJP banks on its Hindutva card even when the latest poll surveys indicate that Congress has an edge for various reasons. The saffron brigade hopes that anti-BJP votes may split. Besides, the BJP may also bank on the non-Jat groups as it was never comfortable with Jats.
The Jats constitute between 20-25 per cent of the population, and they do not typically support the BJP, which they see as a party of Brahmins and Punjabi Hindus. Of late, Jats were also angry with the BJP over issues such as non-OBC status to them, and unemployment.
The BJP’s failure to address wrestlers’ sexual harassment charges against party man Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, as well as the Agnipath scheme of the Defence Ministry have also angered the Jats in general.
Another major aspect of the Haryana election is that the Jat and farmer-based parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janta Party did not fare well in Lok Sabha elections but now seek to strengthen their campaign considering a “weakened” BJP. Today former BJP leader Surender Singh Lather joined the INLD-BSP alliance in the state.
The Congress Party has roped in wrestlers Vinesh Phogat, and Bajrang Punia. They have also backed the agitating farmers. Now that Phogat is contesting from Julana, the Congress party is making all the right noises with its focus on women, youth and farmers.
*Senior journalist
