Kamala Harris. Photo source: kamalaharris.com
By Shankar Raj*
Washington: The 2024 United States presidential election continues to be the closest of the century. In fact, it is the closest race for the White House in the past 60 years, say observers.
Poll surveys since the September 10 debate between Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris show that while Harris seems to have opened up a slight national edge over her Republican rival, their race remains well within the margin of error and too close to call. This is especially the case when looking at the Electoral College.
Trump faces a tight race against Kamala Harris, with polls showing the two neck-and-neck in key battleground states that are likely to be decisive in determining the winner, even as Harris has begun to edge up in nationwide polls.
Some are even predicting a tie. With two presidential candidates fighting over a mere 538 Electoral College votes, a tie scenario is more than possible, said a poll observer. It’s actually kind of surprising there has only been one tied election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
That tie was the result of a failure of coordination by Democratic-Republicans, but it led to the nation’s first “contingent election” where the process of election results will move from the Electoral College to the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, election observers say that delays in counting mail ballots could give the public a false sense of who’s winning the election. That could create a potential “red mirage” that would show the Republican candidate ahead initially before more Democratic-leaning absentee ballots are processed and added to the tally. This could potentially leave an opening for false narratives about election fraud to flourish as the country awaits results.
In Georgia, a controversial rule change approved on Friday, September 20, 2024, that requires workers to hand-count the number of ballots cast at precincts on Election Day could delay the results of the presidential election in a key battleground state.
Meanwhile, Trump continued to “falsely” blame his 2020 loss to Democratic President Joe Biden on widespread “voter fraud” and faces federal and state criminal charges over efforts to overturn the election results.
On the other hand, Harris, 59, has picturized the race as a critical moment for US democracy even as she seeks to focus on kitchen-table issues such as abortion laws, rising costs for families and housing.
Amidst all the swirling controversies around him, Trump indicated that this will be his last election ‘if he loses’ the November 5, 2024, polls. “That will be it” in an interview released Sunday, September 22.
The 78-year-old former president told Sharyl Attkisson’s “Full Measure” programme recorded at his Florida resort: “No I don’t. I think that will be — that will be it. I don’t see that at all,” when asked if will run again for the White House in four years if he loses the 2024 elections. He was quick to add: “Hopefully, we will be successful.”
*Shankar Raj is a former editor of The New Indian Express, Karnataka and Kerala, and writes regularly on current affairs.
