By Shankar Raj
Hyderabad: The two significant factors that could tilt the outcome of the Telangana Assembly elections on November 20, 2023, are the sizable votes of Muslims and that of the people of Andhra Pradesh (AP) settled in Telangana.
Estimates say that Muslims constitute 13% of the Telangana population and could swing influence in 37% Assembly seats – when translated in real terms, 45 seats out of the total 119.
In the 2014 and 2018 elections, the minorities, by and large, had supported Kalvakuntla Chandrasekhar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) or its friendly ally, the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). But all this has changed due to the strong winds coming from Karnataka where the Congress Party defeated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with nearly 90% of the minorities (read Muslims) voting en masse for the grand old party.
As the political equations in Telangana have started changing, the Congress Party is keen to emulate the ‘Karnataka model’ by holding out promises aimed at Muslims and women.
What has angered Muslims in Telangana are reports that the BRS has reached a ‘secret understanding’ with the BJP. The aggressive campaign by the Congress leadership to inform the people in what it termed an ‘unholy’ alliance of BJP-BRS is the talking point among the Muslims and it has started having an impact.
This ‘unholy’ alliance is the main poll plank of Congress MP Rahul Gandhi. Though BJP is not in the race, it wants BRS to win and it has teamed up with the BRS and the AIMIM. The BRS-BJP-AIMIM is working together to defeat the Congress, is his refrain in all election rallies.
BRS MLC Kavitha, daughter of Chief Minister Rao, immediately labelled Rahul Gandhi as ‘election Gandhi’, who was visiting Telangana, for votes.
To make matters worse for the BRS, the party does not have any prominent Muslim face in its ranks. It is banking on AIMIM leaders, Asaduddin Owaisi and Akbaruddin Owaisi, along with the welfare schemes extended by the BRS for the minorities to get the minorities’ votes in the ensuing polls.
The Congress Party is banking on welfare schemes for Muslims in its minority declaration and its manifesto that it would soon release.
As far as Andhra voters are concerned – mostly settlers in Hyderabad — at least seven segments hold the key. In 2014, most of the voters backed the Telugu Desam Party and then shifted to the BRS. Andhra-origin voters are not inherently loyal to the BRS or the Congress Party. Recent developments in AP, including TDP supremo Nara Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest could also influence their decisions.
*Shankar Raj is a former Editor of The New Indian Express, Karnataka and Kerala, and writes regularly on current affairs.
