By G Krishna Mohan Rao*
New Delhi: Big day for the political parties which were waiting for the Election Commission to announce the poll schedule for poll-going five states. The Election Commission announced the dates today with a bang coinciding and clashing with the festival season as well as with the ongoing cricket World Cup season. Mizoram will go to polls on November 7, 2023, so also the first phase of Chattisgarh on the same day. On November 17, the second phase of Chattisgarh and also the entire state of Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan will witness polls on November 23 and Telangana on November 30. Counting for all 5 states will be held on December 3, 2023.
So November is going to be a busy month politically. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar today announced the schedule for the last set of assembly elections ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha polls with 16 crore voters eligible to cast their vote. It includes 8.2 crore male and 7.8 crore female voters along with 60.2 lakh first-time voters.
Here is a brief resume of the current political scene in all five polling states.
The election in Rajasthan will be held in a single phase on November 23. The Congress Party is currently in power in the state with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the main opposition. It will be a major test not only for the Congress Party but also for Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot who will have to keep the factional problems within the party and also deal with issues like anti-incumbency, law and order, farm loan waiver and other issues.
The last assembly election in 2018 was closely fought with the Congress Party winning 99 seats while the BJP secured 73 seats in the 200-seat state assembly. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) managed to secure six seats, while other parties won 20 seats. To form the government, Congress needed a minimum of 101 MLAs. The Party managed to reach this critical threshold with the support of independent and other party MLAs, allowing them to return to power in the state. The main opposition BJP also facing factionalism vertically. The central leadership kept its former chief minister Vasundhara Raje in the political loop line. Caste politics have become important in this big state with BJP encouraging the Jats and Gujars on its side. It seems for the first time, the Aam Aadmi Party is also likely to enter the electoral fray.
Madhya Pradesh is going to polls on November 17 and is poised for an intense political battle as the BJP and Congress vie for supremacy in the upcoming elections. It needs to be emphasised that the BJP has been ruling the state for nearly 19 years and facing anti-incumbency. In the last assembly polls in 2018, the Congress managed to break a 15-year dry spell by forming the government in the state under Kamal Nath’s leadership. However, this government’s tenure was short-lived, lasting a mere 15 months. In a dramatic turn of events, the BJP returned to power, with Shivraj Singh Chouhan taking oath as the Chief Minister in March 2020. In 2018, Congress secured 114 seats in the 230-member assembly, just 2 short of a majority. Simultaneously, the BJP managed to secure 109 seats showcasing a neck-to-neck battle. In 2018, the Congress managed with the independents and BSP but fell later to BJP which managed the game.
This time Madhya Pradesh is witnessing a real battle royal with Congress actively formulating its own arsenal of promises to woo voters and coming out with welfare packages to provide economic relief to the poor and the marginal. On the other hand, the BJP is focusing on the distribution of tickets realising the growing anti-incumbency. In a departure from conventional practices, the BJP is seemingly favouring sitting Members of Parliament and as well as Union ministers over local-level leaders and prominent party figures.
Chhattisgarh gears up for high-stakes assembly elections amidst promises, challenges and uncertainty. The state is witnessing polls in two phases, November 7 and 17, because of the naxal problem. The assembly has got 90 seats, with the Congress currently holding the lion’s share boasting 71 MLAs with Bhupesh Baghel as chief minister. In contrast, the BJP has only 13 MLAs, while the BSP maintains a modest two. Three MLAs hail from the Janata Congress of Chattisgarh. However, since the last assembly in 2018, the political dynamics have shifted, with both the Congress Party and the BJP vying for supremacy. The people of the state expect an increase in employment opportunities, improvements in education, repairs to dilapidated roads, consistent access to electricity and water, the creation of new infrastructure to foster overall development, the completion of unfinished construction projects and the construction of major bridges at high traffic areas.
Voting for all the 40 assembly seats in Mizoram will take place on November 7. The state is currently governed by Mizo National Front ( MNF) with Zoramthanga as the chief minister. The MNF managed to win 26 seats, the Congress 5 seats and the BJP, one seat. The state government is blessed by the BJP government at the Centre. The Congress is hoping for the anti-incumbency prevailing in the state. The Mizoram electorate is also expected to face the impact of the neighbouring Manipur violence. Further, the church is expected to play its role. Another major factor in the state’s politics is going to be the rise of the newly created Zoram People’s Movement.
The state of Telangana will see the election on November 30. The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) government led by K Chandrashekhar Rao ( KCR) is facing anti-incumbency, grown over the last nine and half years. However, Chandrashekhar Rao is trying hard to strike a hat trick because of his welfare agenda for the poor and the marginalised sections. In the house of 119 members, the BRS enjoys about 90 seats.
KCR is hoping that the anti-incumbency vote would split between Congress and BJP, and in the process he would be the beneficiary. Both the national parties are contesting the polls very seriously. Muslim-dominated Majlis Party led by Asaduddin Owaisi is in alliance with the ruling BRS. However, of late, the Congress Party is emerging strongly on the scene particularly after it announced a special 6-point package for the poor and below poverty line people. The BJP central leadership is also making all kinds of promises and moving earth and heaven to win as many seats as possible and ensure a hung assembly in the state.
*Senior journalist
