New Delhi: The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department stated today.
It may be mentioned that the LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%, the IMD said.
Region-wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India (<92% of LPA) and normal over other three broad homogeneous regions; central India (94-106% of LPA), North East India (94-106% of LPA) and South Peninsular India (94-106% of LPA).
However, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be normal (94-106% of LPA).
In respect of the spatial distribution of the monsoon seasonal rains, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east central India and many areas of northeast and extreme north India. However, normal to below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of northwest India and adjoining west-central India, northern parts of peninsular India and along the foothills of the Himalayas.
In June, below-normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above-normal rains is expected.
In June 2023, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for the extreme north and some parts of southern peninsular India, where below-normal and normal temperatures respectively are likely.
– global bihari bureau
