By Venkatesh Raghavan*
Brazil is likely to rejoin a Left-leaning Latin America. Several South American countries in the recent past voted for the Left and these included Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Chile and Colombia. Brazil is the latest in reckoning from the region. It will get a decisive verdict by October 30, 2022, in its Presidential elections.
The main culprits in the right-to-left seesaw seem corruption-driven crony capitalism and failure of repayment in the face of massive borrowings. Also, add the poor handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the case of Brazil.
The trend that seems to be likely for Brazil is also being perceived as a repeat of what other Latin American countries faced in recent years owing to failures on the economic front compounded by rising unemployment figures. The count of left-leaning economies mushrooming in the Latin American continent after a gap of almost a decade-long right-wing rule has been steadily on the rise. The millennial year that witnessed a strong pitch towards right-wing politics in the continent has now lost its sheen owing to being plagued with failures on the economic front, curbing corruption and social unrest in wake of rising unemployment figures.
In 2019, Argentina voted in favour of left-leaning Alberto Fernandez after the latter’s heavy borrowing precipitated a massive economic crisis. Another Latin American country, Bolivia too returned to the socialist model in 2020 after ousting Evo Morales.
More recently Peru voted to power a far-left leaning political fresher, Pedro Castillo, to the presidential office of the country. Chile too had its moment under the sun with leftist ideologue formerly from the student community Gabriel Boric getting voted to power as President. Colombia set a historic precedent in recent history by reining in the left-leaning Gustavo Petro.
The current developments that indicate a probable return to Left Wing politics in Brazil are slated to get decisive on the October 30 round of polling for the nation’s Presidential candidate. Current president Jair M. Bolsonaro is at risk of losing his turf to left-leaning Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, a two-time occupant of the hot seat.
The Brazilian electorate that has been witness to lax handling of the Pandemic problem seems to be not very keen on retaining Bolsonaro. The situation brewing in Brazil is seen as something that is akin to what happened in the United States before President Donald Trump got legally ousted. Popular opinion polls emanating from the stables of national media houses have sounded the bells that favour the return to power of Lula da Silva.
Brazil, which happens to be within the top 10 largest economies of the world besides being the largest economy of the Latin American continent, is fraught with grim battles posed by sagging financial health and very poor track records on environmental protection that gets saddled by the rampant deforestation in the Amazon belt. To cap it all, there is a sharp rise in unemployment figures and Brazil’s GDP figures managed to come out of the woods only partially after a decade-long phase of sluggish rise in 2021.
Bolsonaro who grew unpopular owing to the massive 6 lakh Covid-related deaths in Brazil is known to have taken a pronounced anti-vaccine stand. The country’s tilt towards the Left is the result of Lula pitching for state control of the oil and gas company, aiming to transition in favour of clean energy and planning to expand the kitty for welfare funding. While the country’s orthodox Christian and religious groups favour Bolsonaro, the weaker sections have their empathies with Lula. Bolsonaro has labelled himself as a born-again Christian who has survived attacks and persecution.
Bolsonaro also managed to find favour with the electorate for his pro-business approach that was centred on an autonomous central banking system. He was typically the blue-eyed boy of high-income groups and religious Christian denominations.
While Bolsonaro seems to have lost by a mile with ethnic minority communities as well as corruption-related issues, he has plucked a leaf from Indian opposition Parties and pronounced that any verdict that fails to favour his presidency on October 30 is a direct outcome of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) being tampered with.
Photo: The Amazon Indians of Brazil. Photo courtesy Pixabay
*Senior journalist
