By Nava Thakuria*
Why Myanmar’s Polls Matter for India’s Northeast
Guwahati: Myanmar’s proposed elections are unfolding far beyond the realm of domestic politics. For India, particularly its sensitive northeastern region, they represent a test of border security, regional stability, and long-term strategic balance. After more than four years of military rule, widespread armed resistance, and sustained international isolation, Myanmar stands at a fragile crossroads. The announcement of elections has therefore revived deep concerns in New Delhi, where policymakers are acutely aware that instability across the border rarely remains contained within Myanmar’s frontiers.
India shares a 1,640-kilometre-long, largely open and difficult border with Myanmar, stretching across Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh. This rugged frontier has historically been vulnerable, but the prolonged turmoil inside Myanmar has sharply intensified the risks. Militant movements, illegal arms flows, narcotics trafficking, and unregulated cross-border movement have expanded as state authority weakened. The arrival of refugees from Myanmar into Manipur during the recent crisis provided a vivid reminder that political breakdown in Myanmar has immediate human and security consequences for India’s northeast.
The credibility of elections being organised under Myanmar’s military leadership remains deeply contested. Key opposition parties continue to face bans, large territories are effectively controlled by armed ethnic groups, and the absence of independent international observers further undermines confidence in the process. Yet India’s response has remained measured rather than ideological. New Delhi’s calculation is rooted in realism: however flawed the electoral exercise may be, the emergence of a functioning authority in Naypyidaw is seen as preferable to a prolonged power vacuum or state collapse.
From India’s security perspective, the absence of effective governance in Myanmar poses the greatest danger. Unregulated spaces across the border allow insurgent groups to seek shelter, facilitate anti-India activities, and sustain lucrative drug networks that increasingly target the region’s youth. These threats are no longer peripheral but strike at the heart of national security. This explains why India has avoided a complete rupture in security cooperation with Myanmar, maintaining channels of intelligence sharing and limited military engagement despite political unease.
Beyond immediate security concerns, Myanmar occupies a central place in India’s Act East Policy. Major connectivity initiatives, including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway, depend on a minimum level of administrative order. Prolonged civil conflict not only stalls these projects but also opens strategic space for greater Chinese influence, a development India views with increasing caution in an already contested region.
India’s policy toward Myanmar thus reflects a careful balance between values and vulnerabilities. While New Delhi continues to voice support for democratic principles and an inclusive political process, its overriding priority remains stability along its eastern frontier. By refraining from openly backing any single political force, India hopes that the post-election scenario will yield a governing structure capable of curbing violence and maintaining constructive engagement with neighbouring states.
In the end, Myanmar’s elections embody both hope and anxiety for India. Faced with complex and persistent security challenges in the northeast, New Delhi recognises a difficult truth: an imperfect but stable government next door is far less dangerous than a failed and chaotic state. It is this hard-earned realism, rather than optimism, that underpins India’s continued hope for stability in Myanmar.
*Senior journalist. Views are personal.
