‘Amphan’ is very likely to move northwards slowly and then re-curve north-north-eastwards and move fast across north-west Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) during the afternoon / Evening of May 20 as a “Very Severe Cyclonic Storm”. The IMD warned of a storm surge of about 3-4 meters above Astronomical Tide which is likely to inundate low lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and 2-3 meters over the low lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal around the time of Landfall.
“Sea condition will be Phenomenal over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours. It will become Phenomenal over southern parts of central Bay of Bengal from tonight, overnorthern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal on May 19 and over north Bay of Bengal on May 20,” the IMD stated.
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Also read: “I could see the sea, an angry dark blue and white, with frothy waves jumping over each other”
The IMD forecasts squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph along and off south Odisha coast from Monday evening, which will extend to along & off north Odisha coast from Tuesday morning and along and off West Bengal coast from Tuesday afternoon.
“The wind speed will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 75 to 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 20th morning along and off north Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts) and West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata Districts). It will gradually increase thereafter becoming 110 to 120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph along & off the above mentioned districts of North Odisha and 120 to 140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph along & off the above districts of West Bengal from the afternoon of 20th May 2020,” it added.
Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph likely to prevail over Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur districts of Odisha during 20th May 2020.
The cyclone is likely to cause extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures in East Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, and Kolkata districts of West Bengal. It will also cause disruption of rail/road link at several places, extensive uprooting of communication and power poles, extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, blowing down of palm and coconut trees, uprooting of large bushy trees. Large boats and ships may also get torn from their moorings.
In Odisha, the cyclone will hit Jagatsinghpur,Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur and Mayurbhanj. The damage expected in these districts are as follows:
- Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
- Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
- Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signalling systems.
- Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
- Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
Besides, during the cyclone there will be potential threat from flying objects at all places.
Coastal Odisha is likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places from 18th May evening. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over north coastal Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Balasore& Mayurbhanj Districts) on May 19 and isolated heavy rainfall over north coastal Odisha (Bhadrak, Balasore& Mayurbhanj Districts) on May 20.
Coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal (East Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas) are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on May 19. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (East and West Medinipur, South and North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining districts) on May 20.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
Date/Time(IST)
|
Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
|
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
|
Category of cyclonic disturbance
|
17.05.20/1730
|
12.0/86.0
|
125-135 gusting to 150
|
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
17.05.20/2330
|
12.9/86.0
|
135-145 gusting to 160
|
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
18.05.20/0530
|
13.5/86.0
|
140-150 gusting to 165
|
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
18.05.20/1130
|
14.0/86.1
|
150-160 gusting to 170
|
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
18.05.20/1730
|
14.6/86.2
|
160-170 gusting to 185
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm |
19.05.20/0530
|
15.9/86.5
|
170-180 gusting to 200
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm |
19.05.20/1730
|
17.5/86.9
|
170-180 gusting to 200
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm |
20.05.20/0530
|
19.6/87.4
|
160-170 gusting to 190
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm |
20.05.20/1730
|
21.8/88.0
|
145-155 gusting to 170
|
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
21.05.20/0530
|
23.4/88.4
|
95-105 gusting to 115
|
Severe Cyclonic Storm |
21.05.20/1730
|
25.2/88.9
|
60-70 gusting to 80
|
Cyclonic Storm |
22.05.20/0530
|
26.8/89.4
|
30-40 gusting to 50
|
Depression |
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