Bangladesh Map
By Deepak Parvatiyar & Nava Thakuria*
Tarique Rahman’s Return Reshapes Dhaka–Delhi Calculations
Bangladesh’s fragile political transition has entered a phase with clear diplomatic ramifications for South Asia, as opposition leader Tarique Rahman returned from long exile, communal tensions resurfaced, and relations with India remained strained over the continued presence of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi. With parliamentary elections proposed for 12 February 2026, Bangladesh’s internal political recalibration is increasingly intersecting with regional security, legal and geopolitical considerations.
Rahman, the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, returned to Dhaka on December 25 after 17 years in exile in the United Kingdom. His arrival, marked by heavy security and large crowds of supporters, has altered the domestic political balance at a time when the Awami League has been barred from contesting the upcoming polls. While Rahman struck a conciliatory tone, appealing for unity and the restoration of democratic norms, regional observers note that his re-entry carries implications beyond Bangladesh’s borders, particularly for India, which has long regarded political stability in Dhaka as central to its eastern security environment.
The broader diplomatic backdrop remains unsettled following the violent student-led protests of July–August 2024 that forced Sheikh Hasina from office. According to United Nations agencies and international human rights organisations, more than 1,400 people, including minors, were killed during the unrest. A Bangladeshi court later convicted Hasina of crimes against humanity and sentenced her to death in absentia. Following these developments, Hasina and thousands of leaders and workers of the Awami League relocated to India, where they continue to reside.
Since assuming office, the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has formally requested Hasina’s extradition under the 2013 India–Bangladesh extradition treaty. India has acknowledged the request but has not committed to extradition. Indian officials have not publicly detailed their legal reasoning, though legal experts point out that the treaty allows discretion in cases involving political offences and capital punishment—factors directly relevant to Hasina’s case. A report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group has identified Hasina’s continued presence in India as a significant source of bilateral strain, noting that New Delhi may be reluctant to project an image of abandoning a long-standing political partner during a crisis.
Yunus has publicly urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to restrain Hasina from making political statements about Bangladesh while residing in India, arguing that such remarks are widely perceived within Bangladesh as external interference. Despite this appeal, Hasina and several senior Awami League figures have continued political engagement from Indian cities, reinforcing sensitivities around sovereignty and diplomatic propriety.
Political tensions intensified further after the killing of activist Sharif Usman bin Hadi, which triggered street protests, clashes with security forces and heightened troop deployment across major urban centres. Rumours circulated that the perpetrators crossed into Indian territory after the attack. The main accused, Faisal Karim Masud—allegedly associated with the Awami League’s student wing, the Chhatra League—remains absconding. While no verified evidence has been presented to support claims of cross-border shelter, the perception itself gained traction among sections of the Bangladeshi public, contributing to a rise in anti-India sentiment.
Communal violence has added a humanitarian dimension to the diplomatic strain. On 18 December, 27-year-old garment worker Dipu Chandra Das was beaten to death by a mob in the Bhaluka area of Mymensingh district, allegedly over remarks deemed offensive to Islam. Days earlier, on December 13, 45-year-old grocery shop owner Uttam Kumar Barman was lynched in Rangpur on accusations of blasphemy. The incidents drew protests in several Indian cities and prompted New Delhi to publicly urge Dhaka to ensure the safety of religious minorities, warning that such acts could not be dismissed as isolated criminal episodes.
Bangladesh’s interim government condemned the killings as criminal acts and rejected any justification for mob violence. Education Adviser Prof. C. R. Abrar visited Dipu Chandra Das’s family to convey official condolences and reaffirm the government’s commitment to the rule of law. Authorities said more than ten suspects had been arrested, though local reports and civil society groups indicate that fear and insecurity persist among minority communities.
Bangladesh at a Diplomatic Crossroads Ahead of 2026 Polls
Rahman’s return introduces a new variable into this complex political and diplomatic equation. For Bangladesh, his presence restores a central opposition figure at a time when political legitimacy remains fragile. With the Awami League excluded from the electoral contest, Rahman’s physical return is seen by analysts as strengthening the credibility of the electoral process and reducing the risk of a prolonged leadership vacuum. At the same time, he faces the challenge of re-establishing political authority on the ground after nearly two decades abroad and reassuring institutions, minority communities and international partners of his commitment to stability.
For India, Rahman’s re-emergence revives long-standing security considerations shaped by historical experience. During BNP-led governments in the early 2000s, Indian security agencies had raised concerns about gaps in counterterrorism cooperation and the activities of transnational militant groups operating from Bangladeshi territory. While regional security frameworks and bilateral mechanisms have evolved since then, this legacy continues to inform New Delhi’s cautious approach to any major political transition in Dhaka.
Beyond bilateral ties, Bangladesh’s transition has wider geopolitical implications. During Hasina’s tenure, Dhaka pursued a policy of balancing relations with India and China, with Beijing emerging as a major infrastructure investor. Analysts note that political uncertainty surrounding the next elected government has prompted regional and global actors—including India, China, Japan and the United States—to reassess their engagement strategies, particularly in the context of connectivity projects and Indo-Pacific alignments.
As campaigning gradually takes shape under tight security and growing international scrutiny, Bangladesh’s political transition is no longer viewed as a purely domestic affair. The convergence of Rahman’s return, unresolved accountability from the previous regime, communal anxieties and shifting regional calculations underscores how developments in Dhaka are once again reshaping South Asia’s diplomatic landscape, with implications likely to extend well beyond the February 2026 elections.
*Senior journalists
