Can women voters ditch Naveen and shift allegiance to Modi?

By Debi Mohanty*

Bhubaneswar: While Odisha is through a terrible summer, the heat is on the five-time Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who today slammed Prime Minister Narendra Modi for raising his health issue in an election rally.

Amid the prolonged elections, despite the intense heat and body-soaking coastal humidity, the state is keenly watching an intense battle on the political field. With an aggressive Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trying hard to dislodge Chief Minister Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), all eyes are on June 4, the results day.

On June 1, 2024, Odisha will vote in the final of the four phases of simultaneous polls for 21 Lok Sabha and 147 State Assembly seats.

Though, the BJD, BJP and Congress are the three major players, the real fight is between the ruling BJD and the principal opposition party, the BJP. Incidentally, BJD and BJP ran an alliance government in Odisha from 2000 to 2009.

Political analysts say it’s the toughest electoral challenge for Naveen, 77, who has been ruling the state uninterrupted since 2000. “The Naveen magic is on the test,” said an analyst who didn’t want to be named. “But never forget Naveen’s immense popularity and the BJD’s organisational strength. Plus, his women vote bank,” he added.

The women’s fortress of Naveen has stood solidly behind him in successive elections, and his opponents have failed to breach it. This time too,  it has been distinctly visible at Naveen’s election rallies and road shows.

Ask Padma. The 37-year-old lady was visibly excited when she heard of Naveen conducting a road show near where she lived.  “Aaji sandhya re Naveen sir aama rastaa re jibe (Naveen will have his road show on this route this evening),” she told another lady, a bit older than her,  “6 ta purbaru kaama saari palei aasile paakharu dekhi pariba (we should complete our work before six pm so that we can see him from a closer distance)”.  The other lady nodded her head in agreement, as they headed to their work.

Residents of Bhubaneswar’s largest slum, Salia Sahi, Padma and the other lady, like hundreds of others in their locality work in different houses, in the morning and evening. On May 22, they were expected to complete their job in the afternoon.

For women like Padma, the Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is much more than a leader or chief minister. Naveen is like a family member, a guardian. Their loyalty to Naveen or his Biju Janata Dal is hard to change.

Five months back in December, in a village- bordering Chhattisgarh- in Odisha’s Koraput district, an eighty-year-old lady was basking under the Sun around 11 am. When asked whether she had lunch and if her son looked after her, she pointed to a poster of Naveen on the wall of a house, and replied, “Se Mo Pua, Naveen Budhha. (He is my son). Se mo katha bujhucchi (he looks after my well-being)”.

At around 7 pm on May 22, it was a different atmosphere on the entire four km stretch from CRPF square to Jayadev Vihar. People standing on either side of the road were waiting for the bus carrying their leader to reach them. At different points, there were thousands of women, many of them blowing the Conch (BJD’s election symbol).

The bus arrived and a huge cheer erupted. As a smiling Naveen waved at the crowd, ecstatic, cheering women, men and children, jostling for space, waved back. On either side, supporters ran with the bus, and hundreds followed behind the vehicle. Youth – both boys and girls tried to take videos of Naveen.

“Finally I could see him after two years, I can’t describe how happy I am,” said Jhunu Soren, wiping tears of happiness from her face.

Also read: What makes Naveen Patnaik invincible in Odisha?

This was Naveen’s second roadshow in Bhubaneswar.

Around a week later, Prime Minister Modi had a road show in the city as well. “There was a huge crowd during Prime Minister Modi’s roadshow. People had come to see Modi. But the people here love Naveen,” observed Santosh Mishra, 48, a shopkeeper in Jayadev Vihar who was at the PM’s road show.

On the other hand, it’s been a low-key affair for the Congress. Rahul Gandhi visited the state once while Congress President Mallikarjurn Kharge addressed some rallies. Both of them are now slated to campaign for the Congress candidates before the final phase.

“We have missed a big opportunity,” feels a long-time Congress sympathiser Sukanta Sahoo, 52, in Naroda, under Jayadev’s constituency, which is part of the Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha seat.

Buoyed by its stunning performance in the 3 tier panchayat elections ahead of the 2019 elections which saw a nine-fold rise in BJP’s position – from 36 seats in 2012 to 296- the saffron party has swung into an aggressive campaign. The then BJP president Amit Shah, who had been regularly visiting Odisha to galvanise the party workers had set a target of 120 seats in the 147-seat Odisha Assembly. With the Modi wave at its peak post Balakot strikes and the ruling BJD government on the back foot following the chit fund scam, farmers distress, corruption allegations etc, the BJP was on an upsurge then. Alarmed by the visibly sudden saffron rise, Naveen then set out on an extensive campaign across the state beating the terrible April heat and humidity.  Hastily, he also announced the cash assistance scheme for the farmers (KALIA). The final result: BJD scored 112, and the BJP 22 seats in the State Assembly in 2019. However, the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha jumped to 8 from just 1 in 2014. More importantly, its vote share increased from 18 per cent in 2014 to 32 per cent and in the process, it eclipsed the Congress Party from the principal opposition party to the third position. 

Surprisingly, once the dust settled down, the BJD-BJP  bonhomie was on show after 2019. Till recently (early April this year), senior leadership of both the parties, met and negotiated for an alliance in Odisha in 2024. With that failing to take off, both the parties thereafter upped the ante against each other. What is significant is that the BJD further swept the polls in all the thirty districts in 2022. Out of 852 Zilla Parishad, the BJD won 766 seats, while the BJP and the Congress could grasp 42 and 37 seats respectively.

To bolster the BJP’s chances, the top brass of the party besides PM Modi and local boy and education minister Dharmendra  Pradhan who is contesting from Sambalpur Lok Sabha seat,  party president JP Nadda, Union ministers Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh,  Smriti Irani, UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath, his Assam counterpart Himanta Biswa Sarma among others have addressed rallies around the state this time. In every speech they have attacked Naveen’s closest aide- IAS turned politician VK Pandian, who the BJP is trying to project as an outsider in Odiya politics. Pandian is from Tamil Nadu but is married to an Odiya woman. The BJP had been careful when it came to Naveen, though. But finally, it was Sarma, who posted on X a video of Pandian putting Patnaik’s shaking hand on a table while the CM was delivering a speech. Sarma wrote on the social media site, “This is a deeply distressing video. Shri V K Pandian ji is even controlling the hand movements of Shri Naveen babu.”  Modi was quick to lap it up and much to the annoyance of Naveen, told an election rally on May 28, 2024, that there was a ‘conspiracy’ behind the CM’s deteriorating health which the BJP will probe once it comes to power in Odisha. Naveen retorted, telling reporters today that it was unfortunate that the PM said this to get votes. “He says he is a good friend of mine, couldn’t he have telephoned me? Instead, he is saying this in an election meeting to get votes,” he said.

On an earlier occasion too, Modi had questioned Naveen’s knowledge about Odisha’s districts. This time, he went a step ahead stating that Odisha needs an Odia CM.

The BJD’s 2024 poll campaign is all about Pandian. Though Naveen is seen at different rallies, it’s Pandian who’s addressed crowds everywhere.

Earlier while it was talked about in the state that Pandian called the shots in the BJD, he operated from the confines of the chief minister’s office.  However, his visibility increased after Naveen embarked on his fifth term in 2019. Pictures of him in media showed him standing behind the CM in Naveen Niwas (CM’s residence) or events. He was seen taking stock of projects at different places. However, over the last year, as the CM’s private secretary, using the state helicopter he took whirlwind trips to all 147 constituencies across 30 districts, met people, and addressed them. After that, he resigned from service and joined politics.

Long-time Odisha politics watchers say the loyal BJD voters don’t appreciate the overexposure of Pandian. “People want to see and listen to Naveen, not Pandian,” held a political observer in Kendrapara. Many say, this factor may cost BJD some seats, which will gain the BJP. “The BJP is likely to improve its tally in the Assembly, but, trust me, the BJD will win the election. Because, Odia’s just love Naveen,” said senior journalist Bighneswar Sahu.

*Senior journalist. The views are personal.