By Shankar Raj*
Pakistan’s Fear: India’s Revenge Looms After Terror
As Defence Minister, Armed Forces chiefs and intelligence chiefs confabulate with Prime Minister Narendra Modi almost every day on the strategy to be taken after the targeted killings of Hindu tourists in Pahalgam, most Indians go to bed wondering if they will get up the next morning to learn about another surgical strike.
The September 29, 2016, surgical strike is etched so deeply in the psyche of every Indian that it has emerged as a ‘natural’ reaction to every Pakistan misadventure. It was on September 29 that teams of Indian Army Para (Special Forces) crossed the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistani-administered Kashmir to attack targets up to a kilometre within territory held by Pakistan and took Islamabad by surprise. The raid occurred ten days after four militants had attacked an Indian army outpost at Uri on September 18, 2016, in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, and killed 19 soldiers.
Pahalgam Fallout: India’s Wrath Keeps Pakistan Guessing
In Pakistan, too, many go to bed wondering if India’s wrath will shake them to the core the day after. Once bitten, twice shy, the Pakistani Army has already shifted the terror camps that it supports deep inside the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and emptied the area out.
Islamabad has switched all its megaphones threatening India with a ‘full spectrum war, including nuclear, if attacked’. Pak troopers have commenced unprovoked firing just to keep New Delhi’s intentions diverted.
Modi’s Next Move: Surgical Strike or Economic Checkmate?
A surgical strike may be in the offing, but when, where and how has left Islamabad scratching its head for clues. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already unleashed a quiet ‘surgical strike’ by bringing the Pakistan economy to its knees without even firing a bullet. New Delhi has forced an impoverished Islamabad to spend heavily on its military amid the threat of an India-Pakistan war.
According to media reports, the fear of a war has torpedoed the Pakistan Stock Exchange, with investors losing billions of dollars since the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack. As per official figures, the market cap of Pakistani companies has tanked by around $4 billion, which is huge considering the country does not have gigantic multinational conglomerates like India.
India’s Silent War: Crippling Pakistan Without a Shot
India has already declared a ‘water war’ by suspending the Indus Water Treaty, thus starving parts of Pakistan; exports have been suspended, ports shut, and airspace closed.
Frankly speaking, India has already won a war by cornering Pakistan on multiple fronts. But is a war with Pakistan an option on the table? After years of tolerance when Indians allowed everyone, from the Moghuls to the British, Dutch, Portuguese and others, to attack India, plunder its economy and mitigate its culture, India has now become a nation of emotional people who demand action on the ground. A war would affect the country emotionally. Ironically, a war with India will also make the people of Pakistan rally around their Army, which has started losing its support among the masses.
In all these games, India is also aware that its response to the Pahalgam attack is part of a much larger conspiracy by foreign powers who do not want India to rise as an economic and global superpower. There is ample evidence of this strategy claimed by the government from time to time – the farmers’ protests when foreign powers hoped to trigger a civil war; during the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA ) protests (Shaheen Bagh and Delhi riots); Manipur; mass killings of Hindus in Bangladesh, etc.
And it is here that Pahalgam fits in. After a long time, terrorists targeted civilians, specifically Hindus, to throw fireballs into already inflammable Hindu-Muslim tensions and create civil war-like conditions in India. Terrorists openly bragged, saying: “Tell your Modi that we are killing Hindus.” Clearly, it was meant to hurt Hindu sentiments, trigger emotional responses, and provoke India into war.
Every such crisis had a hidden agenda, a hidden hand and a sinister motive. Hard for people to read, but Modi and his team must have the inputs. At this stage, it would be noteworthy, the dubious role that Bangladesh may play in the case of an Indo-Pak war. Radical elements in Dhaka have already started making needless and provocative statements against India. This is a nation that will be on the radar of New Delhi in the coming days. There should not be any surprises and provocations from the east to divert India’s focus on Pakistan.
The role of the Opposition is equally crucial. These parties had earlier demanded “proof” during the 2019 Balakot strikes and now say: “We support any action Modi takes.”
It is important not to fall prey to demands for an emotional response and the hidden agenda of foreign powers and those within India wanting to see the prime minister fail. What is required is to target the terror outfits wherever they are and to smoke them out internally and externally. In an era of drones and Artificial Intelligence, India has the technology to take on anyone that Pakistan hides under its blankets. But most importantly, the government needs to weigh all options to select what is best suited for India, before it acts.
*The author is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.
