Verdict 2024: BJP’s Hindutva takes a blow

By Vivekanand Jha*

As the Bharatiya Janata Party’s ‘Hindutva‘ took a blow this election, the forces of Hindutva were quick to declare the poll outcome vindicated why Hindus deserved to be subjugated for eight hundred years!

Hence, the verdict on the 4th of June 2024, holds a special significance not just for India but for the entire world.

‘How could all these exit polls go so off-track?’, I exclaimed. The disdainful dismissal of the exit polls by Rahul Gandhi and his ilk in the opposition, as the concocted orchestration by the Godi media, came rushing back to haunt me: how could Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav and all others in opposition, predict the outcome so accurately, missing their projection by a whisker–they had projected 295 seats for themselves, the source of their projection remained unknown.

So how could Hindus do it to the man who “genuinely” thought of empowering them; the man who has contributed to the “global branding” of India, could suffer such an ignominy in the hands of his own people?

Uttar Pradesh, I felt, was no less than a massacre, whereas West Bengal and Rajasthan offered the devastating trends which my eyes were refusing to believe, especially when the exit polls enthusiastically declared the BJP as the clear winner.

What could have gone wrong in West Bengal, where the pollsters had confidently predicted a clear mandate for BJP to emerge as the largest party?  Where did the Narendra Modi magic fail, and Mamata Banerjee magic succeed?

Unequivocally, as the analysts across the TV. channels were parading their logic and rationale, I had my own guess: Mamata had successfully convinced the Bhadralok class that she alone stood as the bridge between the Bengali Asmita and its Gujarati takeover. Notwithstanding all other explanations, the landslide of Mamata in West Bengal, winning 31 seats, is the vindication of the fact that how Bengali Bhadralok has steadfastly subscribed to her propaganda.

This was the second time after the Assembly Election in 2021, that the Bengali elites – the Bhadralok voted alongside Muslims, to keep the BJP at bay; how the optics of the feast of frenzy presented at Modi’s grand welcome, barely a few days back, appeared in the sharp contrast to the outcomes of the election, vindicated the fact that Bengali Hindus have been tactically voting along with Muslims, for Mamata to keep Modi at bay.

In Uttar Pradesh, which was nothing short of a massacre for the BJP, how the magic of Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh, worked, whereas that of the trinity: Modi- Amit Shah- Yogi Adityanath, so drastically failed?

Of course, Rahul and Akhilesh had so craftily impressed upon the electorate how Modi sought to strangle the Constitution if he secured over 400 seats. Arrogance, overconfidence, wrong narrative and foul language in speeches, and repetition of candidates who didn’t nurse their constituencies, as well as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s annoyance as  Modi and Shah ignored suggestions by RSS and Yogi in ticket distribution, and the consolidation of Muslim votes against the Lotus, all accounted for its downfall. Besides, the highlighting of BJP’s deep resentment for striking down the reservation for the youth, if it secured 400 seats, enormously resonated with Dalits, who shifted in favour of I.N.D.I. Alliance. Even Thakurs betrayed the BJP, and disgruntled Brahmins voted against the party.  The BJP had no idea how its self-confidence of ‘ all is well’ in Uttar Pradesh, failed to anticipate the storm that was blowing in its cupboard. The smugness in selecting candidates, alienating its long-term cadres and the potential face for candidates, by borrowing from the Congress, had antithetical impacts on this electoral outcome across the Hindi heartland.

In Rajasthan, the sidelining of Vasundhara Raje Scindia wrought humongous damage: She was only confined to Jhalawar- Baran from where her son contested and won, refusing to campaign beyond her own constituency. Being a daughter of Rajput and the daughter-in-law of Jat, she had a strong appeal for both communities, which the BJP failed to avail, especially when there was massive resentment among both Jat and Rajput communities against the BJP – while Jat was seeking reservation, Modi’s minister Purushottam Rupala’s comments was construed against their Rajput pride. On March 22, 2024, Rupala had reportedly said, “… Even kings and royals bowed down to the British, started family bonds with them, broke bread with them, and even married their daughters to them. But our Rukhi Samaj (a Dalit community) neither changed their religion nor established such ties though they were persecuted the most”.

So now the  BJP has signalled towards the coalition of the bygone era, and the fact was increasingly dawning on me that the upcoming government will depend upon the crutches, unlike the preceding two terms.

All the good work for the BJP was done in Karnataka, Kerala – where BJP has opened its account, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh. But that stands overshadowed by the complete decimation in Uttar Pradesh, where BJP, which had won 62 seats in 2019, had performed abysmally by coming down to 33, and West Bengal, where it had secured 18 seats in 2019, came down to 10.

However, all the aforementioned setbacks stood dwarfed in front of its defeat in Ayodhya. The BJP lost Faizabad; Laloo Singh of BJP, winning the successive elections, abysmally stood defeated by Awadhesh Prasad Singh of Samajwadi Party. This could be the biggest shock of the 2024 general election to the saffron brigade, and the biggest jolt for Narendra Modi. After all, the man who liberated Lord Ram Lala from the incarceration of 500 years, would be subjected to such an outcome, and that too, in Ayodhya, was beyond anyone’s expectations.

In the wake of BJP failing to reach even the 250 seats–rightly prophesied by  Deepak Parvatiyar, the editor of Global Bihari during a discussion with him a month ago, and psephologist-turned-politician, Yogendra Yadav, recently – I stood extremely morose throughout the day with a question deeply unsettling me, Why would Hindus do it, especially when Muslims stood consolidated to defeat a man who has been their biggest beneficiary.

Muslims, apart from availing the pucca houses under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna and free ration, had voted against Modi as a monolithic unit, as they have been doing thus far, but then Hindus, divided as they are along the caste lines, would go with Muslims, has raised many questions about the BJP’s idea of Hindutva vis a vis its social security policies.

Now, Narendra Modi has reasserted his commitment to go after corruption with the same intensity, which sounds more like rhetoric because if he runs a coalition government, he will have to do delicate balancing and, often, a tight rope walking.

Nonetheless, the confidence that he has exhibited in such adversity, is exemplary.  With the share of detractors within as well as without–even RSS stands alienated from him, on account of his global rise, as RSS resents the individuality – has not stopped his juggernaut from rolling over for the third time in 2024.  

(With inputs from global bihari bureau)

*Vivekanand Jha is an Àuthor, Academician and Public Intellectual. He has written four books on Narendra Modi.