Valley gears up for tomorrow’s polling

By G Krishna Mohan Rao*

Srinagar: The Kashmir Valley gears up as polling will take place in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)  in the first phase tomorrow (September 18, 2004) in 24 Assembly segments — 18 in the Valley and 8 in the Jammu region — covering Pulwama, Anantnag, Shopian, Kulgam, Ramban, Kishtwar and Doda districts. In other words, it is south Kashmir which is going to polls in the first phase.

This is after a gap of 10 years that polling for the State Assembly is taking place in J&K and the striking feature of this election is that there are hundreds of Independent candidates in the fray, besides smaller regional political parties.

The security has been beefed up as elections are taking place against a backdrop of escalating violence. Between May 4 and September 13, 2024, J&K recorded 21 security force fatalities—17 in the Jammu region and four in Kashmir valley. Shootouts between security forces and terrorists continued in the Union Territory just three days before the first phase of polling. After a gunfight broke out in the Mendhar sector of Poonch district on Sunday, September 15 morning, another erupted in the afternoon on the same day in the remote Nuknali Bani area of Kathua district. Officials said no casualties were reported till evening.

The campaign trend so far indicates that both the national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress Party, may not dominate the poll scene. It is widely speculated that Independents and smaller local outfits may win many seats and may influence the next government formation. Random poll surveys indicate that seven local parties and 32 Independents are going to perform well as they are strongly positioned against their rivals. It is learnt that the Union Government is keeping a close watch on the smaller groups in the Valley.

Sources indicated that both the established regional parties of the Valley, the National Conference (NC) and the People Democratic Party (PDP) are on the defensive against the Independents and some other smaller local political groups.

In this scenario, the BJP is seriously looking to retain its dominance in the Jammu region by winning as many seats and emerge as the single largest party and positioning itself to stake claim when the results are declared. The BJP bosses are visualising that since no party will get an absolute majority they should explore all possibilities to form a new government.

A government source dismissed speculation that there was any “tacit understanding” with Engineer Rashid and that his group was contesting as the BJP’s “B team”. It is said that Rashid’s bail was based on the Supreme Court judgement through which Arvind Kejriwal was granted bail for campaigning. Asked about Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) of Kashmir demanding that since many of the cadres were contesting polls as Independents, the ban on it be lifted, the sources said the two were different issues. “The ban on Jamaat is due to their secessionist agenda…and the ban is going to stay.”

Awami Ittehad Party(AIP), the political outfit of Baramulla Lok Sabha member Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also nicknamed Engineer Rashid,  and the separatist Jamaat-e-Islami ( JEI) have formed a “strategic alliance” for the J&K polls. Jamaat is a banned organisation but has been allowed by the Centre to field candidates. Both AIP and JeI are facing accusations of contesting as Centre’s new proxies. Rashid and top Jamaat leader Ghulam Qadir Wani, along with other leaders, met on September 15, 2024, and agreed to join hands.

Engineer Rashid is known for espousing the right to self-determination for Kashmiris although he swears loyalty to the Indian Constitution. Jamaat, on the other hand, is a known separatist organisation and was the driving force behind the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen. Both parties agreed to work together in the larger interest of the region’s population. Following discussions between the two, the AIP will support JEI-backed candidates in Kulgam and Pulwama. The JEI will throw its support behind AIP candidates at other places in Kashmir. Where both parties have fielded candidates, they have agreed to a ‘friendly contest’.

Reacting strongly to the new alliance, National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah said that they were being remotely pulled to take on his party. “Their strings are connected somewhere else, they get their orders from them and they dance to their tunes”. Indirectly hinting at the BJP being behind this alliance, the NC leader argued that “they have been fielded to take on the National Conference. We have no issues, we will fight them”. Regarding BJP’s dynastic rule charge, Abdullah said the ruling party has nothing to show for its six-year direct rule in J& K.

Another major regional force in the state is the PDP led by former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti. The PDP, which has entered the 25th year of its existence, is in a battle for survival. Voting in south Kashmir in the first phase, which has been the stronghold of the PDP, will set the tone. It is significant that Mehbooba Mufti, who lost the Lok Sabha election to the National Conference from Anantnag, has opted out of the Assembly polls and fielded her daughter Ilteja Mufti.

Finally, the basic issue in this election is restoring the J&K statehood. For all political parties in the Valley and the Jammu region, statehood is an emotional issue and included in their manifestos. But many parties suspect the BJP ‘s intention to restore statehood, though the latter did commit on the floor of the Parliament that statehood would be restored after the polls. Political observers feel that one cannot say anything at this stage as to when exactly statehood will be restored. A Lot depends on the prevailing conditions in the country as also the approach of the neighbouring country —Pakistan.

*Senior journalist