Ukraine Faces Rising Civilian Losses and Energy Emergency as War Enters Harsh Winter
Kyiv/Moscow/Geneva: The war in Ukraine continues to impose a deepening human, humanitarian and strategic toll as winter conditions amplify civilian vulnerability, front-line fighting remains largely attritional, and diplomatic efforts proceed alongside sharply competing narratives from the parties involved.
According to United Nations monitoring, civilian casualties rose markedly during 2025, making it the deadliest year for non-combatants since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The UN has repeatedly stressed that its figures represent only verified cases and that the actual toll is likely higher, particularly in areas where access is limited by active hostilities. December 2025 recorded a significant spike in civilian deaths and injuries, largely attributed to missile, drone and artillery strikes affecting populated areas. UN officials have also reported that the expanded use of short-range drones close to the front lines has rendered many settlements effectively uninhabitable, accelerating displacement.
The military situation, as described by international observers, remains largely positional. Fighting continues along extended front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, with neither side publicly acknowledged by independent international bodies as having achieved a decisive strategic breakthrough. The conflict has increasingly taken the form of sustained attrition, characterised by frequent strikes, drone warfare, artillery exchanges and efforts to degrade logistics and energy infrastructure rather than rapid territorial advances.
Displacement remains one of the most enduring consequences of the war. Millions of Ukrainians continue to live away from their homes, either displaced within the country or as refugees abroad, creating the largest displacement crisis in Europe since the Second World War. United Nations agencies have warned that the prolonged nature of displacement has placed sustained pressure on host communities, housing systems, education services and labour markets across Europe, while also straining Ukraine’s own social fabric. At the same time, repeated attacks on hospitals, clinics and medical transport have disrupted access to health care, compounding the humanitarian burden.
Winter conditions have intensified these challenges. In a briefing today, the UN Children’s Fund warned that families across Ukraine are living in “constant survival mode” amid continued missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure, leaving residential buildings without electricity and heating for days at a time as temperatures plunge to as low as minus 18 degrees Celsius. UNICEF’s country representative in Ukraine, Munir Mammadzade, said families have resorted to improvised measures to block freezing air from their homes, including stuffing soft toys into window gaps. He described the threat posed by cold following attacks on power systems as a national-scale emergency layered on top of the war and noted that verified child casualties increased by 11 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Beyond casualties, UN agencies have warned of widespread disruption to education. Thousands of schools have been damaged or destroyed, while millions of children have experienced prolonged interruptions to learning due to displacement, air-raid alerts and infrastructure damage. Humanitarian organisations have cautioned that the cumulative impact on child development and future human capital will extend well beyond the duration of the conflict.
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has echoed concerns over energy outages, noting that while electricity had previously been restored within days following attacks in cities such as Kharkiv and Odesa, the situation in Kyiv has involved longer-lasting outages affecting larger populations during sustained cold spells.
Alongside humanitarian strain, Ukraine has intensified diplomatic engagement focused on energy resilience, sanctions and long-term reconstruction. On 16 January 2026, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the United Kingdom’s Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Justice, David Lammy, and thanked the UK for its decision to provide an energy support package. Emphasising the scale of ongoing attacks, President Zelenskyy said, “There are many daily missile attacks on our energy sector right now, and any support is significant. Every day we need this – to strengthen our energy infrastructure, and we are very grateful for this.” He also highlighted a declaration signed in Paris by Ukraine, the United Kingdom and France, describing it as the first major step toward a Coalition of the Willing.
During the meeting, President Zelenskyy argued that Russia’s leadership had shown no willingness to end the war and called for increased sanctions pressure. He briefed the British side on battlefield developments, stating that Russia was losing around 30,000 soldiers per month based on documented evidence, figures that have not been independently verified by international monitoring bodies. The talks also addressed Russia’s recruitment of foreign nationals, particularly from countries in the Global South, and the need for greater coordination among partner states to counter this practice.
Later the same day in Kyiv, President Zelenskyy met Czech President Petr Pavel, awarding him the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, First Class, in recognition of sustained Czech political, economic and humanitarian support. Zelenskyy highlighted the Czech artillery initiative launched in 2024, which continues to supply ammunition to Ukraine’s armed forces. The leaders discussed Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, the daily restoration of essential services following strikes, and measures to counter drone attacks, including the delivery of aircraft and cooperation on interceptor technologies.
“Each of these strikes against our energy sector and our cities quite clearly shows Russia’s real interests and intentions – they are not interested in agreements, but in the further destruction of Ukraine. And this is precisely why diplomacy is stalling,” President Zelenskyy said. Despite this assessment, he stressed that Ukraine continues diplomatic engagement with the United States, confirming that senior Ukrainian officials were travelling to Washington for scheduled meetings. “The Ukrainian delegation is currently en route to the United States, and we hope there will be more clarity both on the documents that we have already largely prepared with the American side and on Russia’s response to all the diplomatic work that has been taking place,” he said.
President Pavel emphasised that continued support for Ukraine was essential and that economic pressure on Russia remained necessary, expressing confidence that coordinated efforts by Europe and the United States could eventually lead to negotiations. The leaders also discussed European-level initiatives, including significant financial allocations for Ukraine over the next two years and potential Ukrainian participation in pan-European defence production programmes.
Economic dimensions of the war continue to shape policy on all sides. Ukraine remains heavily dependent on external financial assistance to sustain basic state functions, fund social services and support reconstruction, while international institutions have warned that long-term recovery costs will run into hundreds of billions of euros. Sanctions against Russia remain a central tool of Western policy, with governments describing them as aimed at limiting Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort, even as Moscow maintains that its economy has adapted to restrictions.
Energy security remains a key concern for both Ukraine and Europe. Repeated strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have prompted emergency support and repairs, while European governments continue to monitor energy markets closely amid concerns over supply stability and price volatility during the winter months.
Nuclear safety has also remained an international concern. The UN and international nuclear agencies have repeatedly warned of risks associated with military activity near nuclear facilities in Ukraine, stressing the need to prevent incidents that could have regional or global consequences.
At the same time, the Russian government has presented a sharply contrasting account of the conflict. In a briefing in Moscow on January 15, 2026, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Ukrainian forces of conducting drone and artillery attacks on Russian civilians and infrastructure. She said that between January 1 and 12, at least 152 Russian civilians were affected by Ukrainian strikes, with 45 people, including three children, killed and more than 100 wounded. She cited incidents across multiple Russian regions and Russian-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine, including attacks on civilian vehicles, residential areas and public facilities. The Russian Foreign Ministry alleged that some drones used in these attacks contained components produced by Western defence companies, claims that have not been independently verified.
Zakharova also referenced ongoing Russian prosecutions of Ukrainian military officials and foreign nationals accused of crimes against civilians, and criticised Western military support for Ukraine, including recent British defence initiatives. She warned that any deployment of foreign military contingents to Ukraine would be considered a legitimate target by Russian forces and accused Western governments of prolonging the conflict through continued arms supplies.
The Russian briefing further criticised what it described as Western information campaigns, military-technical cooperation with Ukraine and initiatives such as expanded missile development and multinational force planning. Moscow reiterated its stated objectives regarding Ukraine and framed its actions as necessary to address what it described as security threats.
International organisations have continued to express concern over the impact of the conflict on civilians and infrastructure. Bodies within the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe have condemned attacks on civilian areas and energy systems in Ukraine, reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and called for accountability for violations of international humanitarian law. Investigations into alleged war crimes are ongoing under international legal mechanisms, though responsibility remains contested and subject to legal processes.
Beyond Europe and the transatlantic alliance, diplomatic initiatives involving non-Western actors, including Türkiye and other states, have continued intermittently, though no breakthrough toward a ceasefire has been formally verified. The United Nations Secretary-General has repeatedly called for de-escalation, protection of civilians and adherence to international law, while acknowledging the deep divisions among the parties.
Information warfare and cyber operations remain an undercurrent of the conflict, with both sides accusing the other of disinformation, propaganda and cyber activity aimed at shaping public perception and undermining institutions, though detailed verification of such claims remains limited.
As of mid-January 2026, no formally verified ceasefire or peace agreement has been announced. The United Nations continues to recognise Ukraine’s sovereignty within its internationally recognised borders and limits its verified reporting primarily to civilian casualties, displacement and humanitarian indicators, noting that comprehensive, independently verified figures for military losses on either side are not available.
Taken together, the latest official data and statements from international organisations and governments depict a conflict that remains active, complex and deeply polarised. Civilian suffering continues to rise, winter conditions are intensifying humanitarian vulnerability, energy infrastructure remains under sustained strain, and sharply divergent narratives underscore the continuing absence of a shared path toward de-escalation or resolution.
– global bihari bureau
