India-US Negotiations Gain Momentum
Leaders Signal Hope Amid Tariff Row
New Delhi: Amid lingering trade frictions sparked by US tariffs on Indian imports over Russian oil purchases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump have signalled a potential thaw through a public exchange on social media, committing to direct talks in the coming weeks to resolve barriers and revive negotiations. While the optimistic rhetoric from both leaders suggests a pathway to de-escalation and possible breakthroughs, such as tariff reductions or a mini-trade deal, the outcome remains uncertain, hinging on concessions in key areas like agriculture, intellectual property, and energy dependencies, as bilateral ties navigate geopolitical pressures and domestic priorities.
The dialogue unfolded on September 10, beginning with Trump’s early morning post on Truth Social, where he announced that the US and India are “continuing negotiations to address the Trade Barriers between our two Nations.” Describing Modi as his “very good friend,” Trump expressed confidence in a “successful conclusion for both of our Great Countries” and anticipated speaking with the Indian leader soon. Modi’s response on X echoed this sentiment, affirming India and the US as “close friends and natural partners” and noting that teams are working to conclude discussions at the earliest, paving the way for “unlocking the limitless potential” of the partnership. This exchange marks a conciliatory shift from recent escalations, including Trump’s July 31 announcement of a 25 per cent additional tariff on Indian goods—pushing some rates to 50 per cent—due to India’s continued imports of discounted Russian crude, which constitute over 40 per cent of its oil needs.
India and the US are close friends and natural partners. I am confident that our trade negotiations will pave the way for unlocking the limitless potential of the India-US partnership. Our teams are working to conclude these discussions at the earliest. I am also looking forward… pic.twitter.com/3K9hlJxWcl
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) September 10, 2025
This latest outreach builds on earlier efforts to project unity. On September 6, Trump, addressing reporters at the White House, dismissed concerns about “losing India,” asserting, “India and the United States have a special relationship. There is nothing to worry about,” and emphasized his bond with Modi, recalling their recent Rose Garden meeting: “I get along very well with (Indian PM) Modi as you know, he was here a couple of months ago.” Modi responded that day on X, stating, “Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties. India and the US have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.” These remarks, reinforcing the September 10 dialogue, highlight a sustained effort to counter narratives of discord amid the tariff war.
Analysts view Trump’s tweets as a diplomatic olive branch, employing his signature deal-making approach to highlight personal rapport while subtly urging swift resolution. By framing the talks as ongoing and expressing “no difficulty” in reaching an agreement, Trump appears to signal flexibility, potentially in exchange for Indian concessions on US agricultural exports or reduced reliance on Russian energy, aligning with his administration’s focus on curbing trade deficits and enforcing reciprocity. Modi’s affirmative reply reinforces this momentum, indicating India’s willingness to engage constructively, perhaps aiming to restore the Generalised System of Preferences status revoked in 2019 and secure access to US markets for pharmaceuticals and textiles. Reports suggest trade officials from both sides may plan in-person visits this month to restart talks, building on a bilateral trade volume that reached $191 billion in 2024-25.
Yet, the path forward is not without hurdles. The tariffs, part of Trump’s broader strategy that includes pressuring allies like the EU to impose similar measures on India and China over Russian oil dealings, have strained relations and prompted Indian retaliatory duties on US products such as walnuts and apples. Opposition voices in India have criticised the situation as stemming from “personal relations” between Trump and Modi, accusing them of creating economic turmoil. Globally, the tensions risk undermining strategic cooperation under frameworks like the Quad, where both nations counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. US-India Business Council President Atul Keshap emphasised the need for dialogue amid “dangerous times,” including the expanding Ukraine conflict, urging a negotiation that encompasses trade and global stability.
Market reactions were positive, with India’s Nifty 50 index rising 0.42 per cent on September 10, attributed partly to the leaders’ posts, though experts warn that prolonged disputes could erode investor confidence. Historical precedents, such as defence deals during past Modi-Trump summits, support the view that leader-level engagement often yields progress, potentially leading to a “trade reset” by late 2025. However, without substantive compromises—such as India diversifying oil sources or the US easing digital services tax criticisms—the optimism may falter, especially with US midterm elections looming and India’s focus on energy security.
As the two nations eye doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, the upcoming Modi-Trump conversation could serve as a circuit-breaker, blending personal diplomacy with policy alignment to bridge economic chasms. In a world of shifting alliances, this interaction underscores the resilience of the India-US partnership, even as it tests the limits of mutual accommodation.
– global bihari bureau
