A view of Kashmir Valley
By Azhar Hussain*
Srinagar: In the blood-stained aftermath of the Pahalgam massacre, where 26 innocent civilians were systematically executed by radical Islamists in a targeted religious cleansing, India has deployed its most powerful non-military response yet: suspending the historic Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan.
This watershed decision, announced barely 24 hours after the attack, marks a seismic shift in India’s counter-terrorism strategy and sends an unmistakable message that the rules of engagement have fundamentally changed.
For Jammu and Kashmir, India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) represents a potential economic renaissance. Despite possessing an estimated 18,000 MW of hydropower capacity, the region has been able to harness only 3,540 MW—less than a quarter of its potential—due to treaty-imposed restrictions. The government has already initiated plans to double this capacity by 2026 through major projects including Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Ratle (850 MW), Kiru (624 MW), and Kwar (540 MW).
These developments could transform Jammu and Kashmir from an energy-dependent region into a power exporter, creating thousands of jobs and generating substantial revenue.
Beyond electricity, increased water storage and irrigation access promise to revitalise local agriculture, directly benefiting farmers who have operated under artificial constraints for generations. Enhanced water management would also reduce costly maintenance operations while building resilience against climate-induced water fluctuations.
Strategic Calculus
At the same time, India’s suspension of the treaty targets Pakistan’s most critical vulnerability. Nearly four-fifths of Pakistan’s agricultural heartland—producing essential crops like wheat, rice, and cotton—depends entirely on Indus waters. Major population centres, including Karachi and Lahore, rely on these rivers for daily survival.
Already ranked among the world’s most water-stressed nations, Pakistan now faces the spectre of acute shortages, agricultural collapse, and potential civil unrest. With no clear revival mechanism or international arbitration pathway specified in the treaty, Pakistan’s diplomatic options appear severely limited.
After the terror strike in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, India’s message is unambiguous: the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan takes “credible and irreversible” measures to dismantle terrorist infrastructure operating from its soil.
This approach represents a strategic evolution—leveraging vital resources as leverage for peace rather than resorting to military confrontation.
The suspension simultaneously addresses immediate security imperatives while unlocking long-suppressed economic potential in a region whose development has been hostage to geopolitical constraints.
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and celebrated as a diplomatic triumph, endured through three wars and countless border skirmishes. Its resilience, however, came at a considerable cost to India. The agreement granted Pakistan the lion’s share—a staggering 80% (135 million acre-feet annually)—of the six-river Indus system, while restricting India to a mere 20% (33 MAF). More critically, the treaty severely constrained India’s utilisation of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) flowing through Jammu and Kashmir, effectively handcuffing the region’s development potential for over six decades.
A New Doctrine Emerges
India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty represents more than a diplomatic manoeuvre—it signals the emergence of a new doctrine where legacy agreements are no longer immune from accountability reviews. As the international community observes this high-stakes recalibration, India’s action stands as a powerful assertion that enduring regional stability cannot be built upon agreements honoured by one party alone.
True cooperation requires reciprocal commitments to peace—not the perpetuation of arrangements that reward provocation and penalise restraint. The waters of the Indus basin, which have flowed across these lands since ancient times, may now become the catalyst for a long-overdue regional reckoning on the true price of peace.
*Senior journalist
