Heatwaves vs Humanity: 3 Billion Lives at Stake by 2050
Belém: As heatwaves intensify globally, the question of cooling is no longer a luxury—it is a matter of life, livelihoods, and climate resilience. Today, at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released Global Cooling Watch 2025, a stark warning and a roadmap for action. According to the report, cooling demand could triple by 2050, potentially doubling greenhouse gas emissions and straining electricity grids, unless countries adopt a Sustainable Cooling Pathway emphasising passive, low-energy, and hybrid solutions.
The report lays out a comprehensive Sustainable Cooling Pathway designed to curb emissions, safeguard health, and deliver economic benefits on an unprecedented scale. It projects that under business-as-usual scenarios, cooling emissions could reach 7.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, driven by population growth, increasing wealth, rising heat extremes, and low-income households accessing inefficient and polluting cooling technologies. Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, stressed the urgency: “As deadly heat waves become more regular and extreme, access to cooling must be treated as essential infrastructure alongside water, energy and sanitation. But we cannot air condition our way out of the heat crisis, which would drive greenhouse gas emissions higher and raise costs. Passive, energy-efficient and nature-based solutions can help meet our growing cooling needs and keep people, food chains and economies safe from heat as we pursue global climate goals. We have no excuse: it is time we beat the heat.”
The Sustainable Cooling Pathway combines passive cooling strategies, low-energy and hybrid cooling systems, rapid adoption of high-efficiency equipment, and accelerated phase-down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment. If implemented, this approach could reduce projected 2050 cooling emissions by 64 per cent, or 2.6 billion tonnes of CO2e, while simultaneous decarbonization of power generation could lower residual cooling emissions by up to 97 per cent below business-as-usual levels. The initiative would expand access to life-saving cooling for three billion more people, particularly women, smallholder farmers, the elderly, and other vulnerable populations.
Financially, the pathway offers staggering potential: US$17 trillion in cumulative energy savings by 2050, and avoided grid infrastructure costs of up to US$26 trillion. The report emphasises that nearly two-thirds of these gains derive from passive and low-energy solutions, such as natural ventilation, shaded urban spaces, reflective roofing, and green corridors, underscoring the importance of embedding these measures in national policies, urban planning, and building codes.
The release coincides with the global ‘Beat the Heat‘ initiative, a multi-stakeholder programme led by the Brazil COP30 presidency and UNEP’s Cool Coalition, designed to localise the Global Cooling Pledge. Currently, 185 cities and 83 partners have joined Beat the Heat, alongside 72 signatories of the Global Cooling Pledge, committing to reduce cooling-related emissions by 68 per cent by mid-century. Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, COP30 President-Designate, described the initiative as a “mutirão” — a collective, participatory effort — that unites governments, cities, and civil society to address extreme heat collaboratively and creatively.
Several leaders participating in COP30 highlighted practical experiences and commitments. Grace Fu, Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, noted that her country is leveraging its Digital Urban Climate Twin to model urban heat, share technical expertise, and foster collaboration across Pledge signatories, ensuring that knowledge transfer and capacity building empower cities globally.
“As a Global Cooling Pledge signatory, Singapore is taking concrete steps towards Pledge implementation and is proud to support the Beat the Heat initiative by sharing our technical expertise and experience in sustainable cooling and urban heat resilience and providing platforms for countries to exchange knowledge and best practices. Singapore will bring together Global Cooling Pledge focal points, policymakers and practitioners from around the world for a review of Pledge progress and a deep dive into sustainable cooling and heat resilience solutions. Singapore will also share our technical capabilities from our Digital Urban Climate Twin to empower cities globally to better model, predict, and mitigate urban heat. These concrete contributions to Beat the Heat reflect our commitment to advance practical, inclusive solutions for a cooler and more climate-resilient future,” she said.
Dr J. Jeyaranjan of the Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission cited India’s Heat Action Plans, pioneering the recognition of heat as a state-specific disaster, and stressed co-learning opportunities through Beat the Heat to enhance resilience in urban areas. “From taking the pioneering step of declaring heat as a state-specific disaster to developing Heat Action Plans for major cities, Tamil Nadu has established a comprehensive model for heat governance. By joining hands with the global community through the ‘Beat the Heat’ initiative, we have the opportunity to learn from diverse experiences while sharing our own data-driven governance approaches. I believe this co-learning partnership will mutually benefit all participating cities in becoming heat-resilient, inclusive, and climate-ready,” Dr Jeyaranjan said.
Evandro Leitão, Mayor of Fortaleza, Brazil, emphasised the city’s focus on green corridors and microparks, demonstrating how urban design can mitigate heat impacts and protect the vulnerable.“Fortaleza is putting nature at the heart of climate adaptation and mitigation. We are committed to scaling green corridors and microparks that cool our city and protect the most vulnerable. This is about equity, health, and livability—and through Beat the Heat, we want to share and learn with cities in Brazil and worldwide to accelerate this transformation,” Leitão said.
Similarly, Somalia’s Lt. Gen. Bashir Mohamed Jama highlighted the existential nature of sustainable cooling for towns such as Dolow and Biadoa, calling it a “lifeline” for residents confronting extreme heat –“For Somalian cities like Dolow, Biadoa, Galkaio and Bossaso, sustainable cooling is not a luxury—it is a lifeline. By joining Beat the Heat and working with the UNEP-led Cool Coalition, we aim to protect lives and livelihoods from intensifying heat while advancing climate commitments. Together with other cities, we can turn passive cooling and innovation into resilience for the most vulnerable urban communities.”
Despite progress, the report underscores uneven global action. While 72 nations have joined the Global Cooling Pledge, only 54 countries have comprehensive policies across passive cooling, minimum energy performance standards, and refrigerant transition. A further 78 nations cover two pillars, 40 cover one, and 20 have yet to begin, with the largest gaps concentrated in African and Asia-Pacific countries, where future cooling demand is projected to surge. UNEP urges countries to move beyond reactive emergency responses and adopt multi-level, proactive governance, treating heat protection and sustainable cooling as public goods.
The Sustainable Cooling Pathway also emphasises equity. Access to cooling is positioned not as a luxury but as an essential adaptation to climate change. UNEP notes that cooling interventions can improve livelihoods, protect food chains, support health, and provide resilience for low-income and vulnerable communities. By combining high-technology solutions, like low-energy air conditioners, with low-cost, passive interventions, the pathway ensures both climate mitigation and social protection.
As global temperatures continue to rise, Global Cooling Watch 2025 frames sustainable cooling not just as a technical necessity but as a multidimensional strategy integrating climate, urban planning, public health, gender equity, and economic efficiency. Its implementation could save up to US$43 trillion in avoided electricity and infrastructure costs by 2050 while protecting billions from heat stress and reinforcing global climate commitments.
The report closes with actionable recommendations for governments, cities, and private stakeholders: prioritising passive and nature-based cooling, accelerating adoption of efficient equipment, integrating cooling into urban planning, and treating heat resilience as a public good accessible to all. UNEP stresses that the time to act is now, framing cooling not merely as comfort but as climate-smart infrastructure vital to human survival.
– global bihari bureau
