Place de la Concorde , Paris , France
France’s Turmoil Tests EU Bonds
Paris: President Emmanuel Macron’s immediate response to Prime Minister François Bayrou’s ouster via a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly on September 8, 2025, has centred on swift executive continuity, with his office stating that the resignation will be formally accepted on September 10, paving the way for a new prime ministerial appointment by the end of the week.
This timeline aligns with Constitutional requirements under Article 12 of the French Constitution, which mandates the President to appoint a Prime Minister without parliamentary approval, though building a stable minority government remains challenging in the current fragmented National Assembly.
Macron is likely to consider loyal centrists or moderates within his coalition, though no names have been confirmed. Potential candidates include centrist figures like former Justice Minister Éric Dupond-Moretti or Renaissance party veteran Yaël Braun-Pivet, both of whom have expressed willingness to prioritise fiscal discipline while seeking cross-aisle support to avoid immediate further votes of no confidence. Macron’s rejection of dissolution—prohibited until July 2025 per election laws—stems from strategic calculations, as recent polls from the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) indicate his Ensemble alliance trails the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) by 10 points, potentially worsening the parliamentary deadlock if new elections were held.
This latest crisis is the culmination of a year-long saga ignited by Macron’s dissolution of the Assembly in June 2024 after European Parliament election losses, where his Renaissance Party garnered only 14.6 per cent of the vote compared to RN’s 31.4 per cent. The subsequent July 2024 legislative elections yielded a hung parliament: centrists secured 168 seats, RN and allies 143, the left-wing New Ecological and Social Popular Union (NUPES, encompassing La France Insoumise or LFI) 182, and Les Républicains (LR) 47, per official tallies from the Ministry of the Interior.
Without a majority, Macron appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister in September 2024, only for him to fall in December that year over a disputed 60 billion euro spending cut proposal. Bayrou’s December 2024 installation promised a “government of concord,” but his September 8 confidence vote on a 44 billion euro austerity package for 2026—aimed at reducing the deficit from 6.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 to 4.6 percent by 2026, in line with EU Stability and Growth Pact rules—united 364 lawmakers against him, including 125 from RN and 75 from LFI, as recorded in Assembly proceedings.
Bayrou himself captured the tension in his pre-vote address, remarking that lawmakers held the power to fell the government but not to “erase reality,” referring to France’s 3.1 trillion euro public debt, equivalent to 112 per cent of GDP according to the latest National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) data. Post-vote, Renaissance spokesperson Aurore Bergé echoed this, declaring that the extremes’ alliance represented “the same obsession: chaos,” while pledging unwavering support for French stability. From the Opposition, RN leader Marine Le Pen hailed the outcome in her Assembly speech as the “end of the agony of a phantom government,” insisting the nation was neither governed nor adequately administered, and calling for dissolution to enable her party’s “national recovery” agenda. LFI chief Jean-Luc Mélenchon similarly tweeted that Bayrou’s fall brought “victory and popular relief,” placing Macron “on the front line facing the people” and demanding his exit, a sentiment amplified by LFI parliamentary leader Mathilde Panot’s direct Assembly rebuke: “Today is a day of relief for millions of French people, over your departure.”
Domestically, these developments have intensified economic and social strains. The proposed cuts targeted welfare and public sector spending, prompting union-led protests planned for September 10 under the “Block Everything” banner, expected to halt rail services in 20 regions as per CGT announcements. Markets reacted cautiously, with the CAC 40 rising 0.3 per cent on September 9, but French 10-year bond yields climbed to 3.2 per cent, signalling investor concerns over delayed budget passage by October 1, as mandated by Article 47 of the Constitution. RN president Jordan Bardella reinforced this by stating his party would “never vote confidence in a government whose choices make the French people suffer,” positioning RN for gains in 2027 Presidential polls, where Le Pen leads Macron by 15 points in Elabe surveys. For Macron, term-limited and facing internal Renaissance dissent—evident in 20 MPs abstaining from the vote—the episode erodes his approval rating, which stands at 28 per cent per recent Odoxa polling, complicating alliances with LR moderates who provided partial support but remain divided on immigration and fiscal orthodoxy.
The crisis reverberates across the European Union (EU), where France’s role as the second-largest economy, contributing 17 per cent of the bloc’s GDP per Eurostat 2024 data, makes its stability vital. The failure to meet the European Union’s deficit target of 3 per cent, with France’s projected at 5.4 per cent for 2025, risks non-compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact’s April 2024 reforms, which require fiscal plans by November 2025. The European Commission’s September 2025 economic forecast warns that prolonged French delays might increase eurozone-wide borrowing costs by 0.5 percentage points, affecting peripherals like Italy (debt at 140 per cent of GDP) and Spain.
Eurogroup reports note a widened France-Germany bond spread to 60 basis points from 40 in July, reflecting market concerns that could affect high-debt states like Italy, with a 140 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio. Atlantic Council senior fellow Francesca Berti observed that the no-confidence vote “will not be welcome news in Brussels,” as it hampers France’s ability to co-lead with Germany on initiatives like 3 billion euros in 2025 military aid for Ukraine, pledged in a September 4 Paris meeting per Élysée statements. The National Rally’s opposition to the Mercosur trade deal, criticised by Le Pen for threatening French agriculture, aligns with populist surges in Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom (PVV), potentially weakening the European Union’s trade consensus. Spain’s former foreign minister, Josep Piqué i Fernández, told France 24 that “the weakening of France due to its own inability to manage its political system has a spillover effect on the EU,” risking delays in the 2025-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework ratification.
These factors—economic interdependence, institutional leadership, and rising Euroscepticism—collectively challenge the European Union’s unity, as outlined in Article 3 of the Treaty on European Union, as Macron seeks to navigate France out of its fourth government crisis since July 2024.
– global bihari bureau
