Photo source: @ChinarcorpsIA|X
In a Bengaluru factory, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited engineers fine-tune blades for 156 Prachand helicopters, a $6.3 billion project fueling India’s $178 billion defence surge from 2020 to 2025. In Karachi, welders piece together four Type 054A/P frigates, part of Pakistan’s $4.4 billion Chinese-aided acquisitions. In Dalian, China’s shipbuilders craft eight Type 055 destroyers, driving a $34 billion military push that Pakistani media claims work as a potential antidote to Indian S-400 SAM, and can give a powerful counterpunch to their “arch enemy”. India’s transformation, slashing import reliance under Aatmanirbhar Bharat, responds to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26. Pakistan’s nuclear rhetoric, claiming 130 warheads “only for India,” escalates tensions, as global powers urge restraint.
Five years ago, India’s 60% reliance on foreign arms exposed vulnerabilities against Pakistan and China. By 2025, imports have fallen to 40%, with $26 billion in deals turning rural workshops into defence hubs. The country’s defence output reached $15 billion in 2023–24, with $2.8 billion in exports like BrahMos missiles in 2024–25, targeting $6 billion by 2030.
Today, India leverages its conventional edge—4,201 tanks, Agni-5 missiles—and $686 billion reserves to deter attacks, while rallying global pressure to isolate Pakistan for sheltering U.S.-designated terrorists like Hafiz Saeed.
Islamabad’s nuclear rhetoric has surged since the Pahalgam attack, led by U.S.-designated Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Hashim Musa, a Pakistan-trained ex-commando, killing 26. Today, about 1,500 pony operators, facing a 60% income loss, struggle as tourism collapses, prompting former Jammu & Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti to seek aid. Srinagar saw protests, 48 of 87 tourist sites closed, and Anantnag schools shut amid fear. New Delhi’s media advisory warned against live military broadcasts, fearing strategy leaks.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “unimaginable consequences” vow cites Pakistan’s $16 billion reserves and 23% inflation, weakening its nuclear bravado.
India’s $686 billion reserves and Cold Start doctrine enable swift conventional strikes. Its stockpile—4,201 tanks, 730 jets, 9,743 artillery—outpaces Pakistan’s 2,627 tanks, 452 jets, and 4,619 artillery. With a $79 billion budget and 60% local production, India sustains 30–60 days of war, backed by $686 billion reserves and 7% growth, per Janes. Pakistan’s $7.6 billion budget, with 20% local gear like JF-17 jets and Al-Khalid tanks, limits it to 15–30 days, with $16 billion reserves, 23% inflation, and a 7.4% deficit.
Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence doctrine prioritises tactical nuclear use to counter India’s conventional edge. Can both nations’ 172 and 170 nuclear warheads deter total war?
Missiles shape deterrence. India’s BrahMos (450 km) and Agni-5 (5,000 km) outrange Pakistan’s Shaheen III (2,750 km), per the Defence Research and Development Organisation. China’s DF-17 (2,500 km, Mach 10) is faster, but Agni-5’s multiple warheads match it, per Janes. India’s 2024 Ballistic Missile Defence counters DF-17, while BrahMos patrols Kashmir.
Pakistan’s Abdali missile test (April 2025, 450 km, nuclear-capable surface-to-surface missile) signalled defiance post-Pahalgam. On May 3, 2025, Pakistan launched a “successful” training of the Abdali Weapon System.
Pakistan’s $4.4 billion in Chinese arms includes $1.5 billion J-35 jets by 2027, 236 SH-15 howitzers ($512 million), HQ-9 air defence ($1 billion), and four Type 054A/P frigates ($1.4 billion), per Janes. JF-17 Block III tests in 2021 enhanced air combat, but Chinese kit reliance curbs innovation, per Inter-Services Public Relations.
Skilling drives India’s advantage. Over 7,000 Defence Research and Development Organisation scientists train engineers for Rafale-Marine hubs. Pakistan’s Kamra complex trains JF-17 technicians, but economic woes limit impact, per Inter-Services Public Relations.
India’s private firms, like TATA, contrast with Pakistan’s state model, with a $15 billion output and BrahMos exports.
In Vadodara, TATA workers also assemble 40 of 56 C-295MW planes under a $2.6 billion Airbus deal, equipping the Indian Air Force for Himalayan missions by 2031, creating 10,000 jobs. In Kolkata, Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers and Larsen & Toubro are building eight Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft for $760 million. The third ship, Anjadip, launched in 2023 with 80% Indian parts, hunts submarines along 7,500 km of coastline, employing 2,000, per the Ministry of Defence.
Rajasthan’s Barmer hosts a $143 million, 3.5-km Emergency Landing Field, built in 2021, supporting Indian Air Force jets and trade near Pakistan.
India’s $81 billion 2025–26 defence budget, with $21 billion for upgrades, drives growth, though delays and small firms’ challenges persist. On May 1, HAL announced that the Dhruv variants for both the army and air force have been approved for flight operations following the recommendations of the Defect Investigation (DI) Committee. The announcement permits 213 Dhruv helicopters from the army and air force to resume flight operations, although the 38 Dhruv helicopters, mainly the Mk III variant, operated by the Indian Navy and Coast Guard, remain grounded pending further investigation.
Defence Research and Development Organisation tests bolster India’s edge. A 2020 hypersonic missile broke speed barriers, followed by the 2024 Agni-5, carrying multiple warheads 5,000 km. Air defence tests—Very Short Range Air Defence System (2025) for fast targets, Akash (2023) hitting four at 25 km—set benchmarks. Naval tests, like Naval Anti-Ship Missile-Short Range (2025) sinking ships at 150 km and Maritime Interdiction Guided Missile (2025) for stealth targets, secure coasts. The 2024 Ballistic Missile Defence and Vertical Launch Short Range Surface-to-Air Missile shield skies, all Indian-made.
A $7.6 billion deal, signed April 28, 2025, with France, secures 26 Rafale-Marine jets—22 for Indian Naval Ship Vikrant, four trainers—due from 2028 to 2032. Maintenance hubs in Nagpur will train engineers, cutting foreign reliance. Three Scorpene submarines ($4.5 billion), 307 Advanced Towed Artillery Gun Systems ($1 billion) by Bharat Forge and Tata, and 200 BrahMos missiles ($4.6 billion), reaching 450 km, strengthen forces, per the Ministry of Defence. The Indian Air Force’s 36 Rafale jets, delivered by 2024, patrol the skies, separate from naval plans.
A crucial question could be about the role of Pakistan-based militant groups in the escalation of terrorist activities in India. Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, both U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organisations since 2001, use AK-47s, M4 carbines, and RDX from Pakistan’s black markets, Afghan routes, and looted U.S. arms post-2021, with Chinese rifles via China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as per South Asia Terrorism Portal, Global Terrorism Index 2024. Their leaders, Hafiz Saeed (designated in 2008) and Masood Azhar (designated in 2018), reportedly roam free in Pakistan. Kashmir’s forces trace weapons to Pakistan’s borders, but Islamabad denies state ties, a claim India disputes.
India’s Inter-Services Intelligence allegations gain United States, United Kingdom, and Gulf support, but China’s Wang Yi backs Pakistan, saying, “China supports Pakistan in safeguarding its security interests”. Pakistan claimed Türkiye sent C-130s with combat gear, but Ankara denied, and Azerbaijan criticised India. Today, China, Turkey, and Azerbaijan back Pakistan, while the United States’ Marco Rubio and the United Nations’ António Guterres urge calm because India’s $178 billion defence surge, outpacing Pakistan’s $4.4 billion effort, “must balance” deterrence with diplomacy.
Pakistan has managed to avoid complete isolation while tensions surge with Pakistan’s ceasefire violations and Line of Control firing for 12 nights in a row, India’s airspace bans, High Commission staff expulsions, Indus Waters Treaty suspension, and Attari-Wagah closure. The United Nations’ Stephane Dujarric warned of “catastrophic” consequences.
The 2019 Pulwama attack, killing 40, led to Indian airstrikes and a captured pilot, nearly sparking nuclear conflict. After Pahalgam, New Delhi responded with resolve. Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed, “Those responsible will be punished to the ends of the Earth,” signalling potential strikes. In the wake of the Pakistani threat of a nuclear war, India’s 172 warheads, deliverable by Agni-P (2,000 km), not just match Pakistan’s 170, but are reported to be much superior.
As a nuclear exchange risks 20 million deaths in a week, retired Lieutenant General KJS Dhillon, on April 27, 2025, remarked, “India is very capable of absorbing first tactical nuclear strike but the second strike, which is India’s retaliatory strike is going to cause unacceptable damage on Pakistan,” affirming New Delhi’s No First Use policy but massive retaliation.
As tension heightens between the two nations, can backchannel talks be vital to de-escalate nuclear risks? Modi’s vow to punish perpetrators demands action, but will it trigger catastrophe? The answer is anyone’s guess, but one thing is clear that Pakistan’s nuke bluster this time meets India’s grit like never before!
*Senior journalist
