Blue Economy Breaks: Can the Seas Hold Together?
Geneva: In the predawn haze of Jakarta’s Tanjung Priok port, cranes load containers of smartphones, soybeans, and machinery onto ships bound for distant markets. These vessels are the lifeblood of the ocean economy, a $2.2 trillion powerhouse that drove 7% of global trade in 2023. This isn’t just about shipping. In Senegal, fishers cast nets to feed millions, their catches sustaining families and markets. In Thailand, tourists swarm beaches, reviving economies hit hard by the pandemic. Off Denmark’s coast, wind turbines spin clean energy, while seaweed farms in Indonesia yield plastic alternatives. Employing 100 million people—dockworkers, fishers, scientists—and supporting 600 million livelihoods, mostly in developing nations, this blue economy is a global lifeline, enhancing food security, connectivity, and economic diversification.
Yet, a UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, released June 4, 2025, warns it’s cracking under pressure and fragmentation. Climate chaos, geopolitical rifts, and systemic inequities threaten to sink it. With the UN Ocean Conference looming, this is the story of an ocean fighting to survive.
The ocean economy’s scale is staggering. From 1995 to 2020, it grew 2.5 times, outpacing the world economy’s 1.9-fold expansion, with developing nations driving much of this surge. In 2023, it generated $1.3 trillion in services—maritime freight, port operations, coastal tourism—and $900 billion in goods, from fish to ship parts. Coastal tourism alone brought in $725 billion, a third of ocean trade, as global travel rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Fisheries contributed $150 billion, with $114 billion from unprocessed catches, led by exporters like the European Union ($28 billion), Norway ($15 billion), and China ($9 billion). Marine energy, like tidal and offshore wind, added $50 billion, while marine biotechnology, including seaweed products, chipped in $10 billion. Ships and port equipment grew 10% in 2023, processed seafood 5%. Yet, wealth concentrates unevenly: Asia ($912 billion) and Europe ($868 billion) accounted for over 80% of ocean exports, while developing nations, with 40% of global coastlines, captured just 15% of revenue. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) rely on services like tourism for 87% of their ocean exports, but Least Developed Countries (LDCs), despite vast coastlines, face deficits in both goods and services, struggling against industrial fleets and weak infrastructure.
Climate change is a merciless foe. In Bangladesh, rising sea levels threaten to flood Chittagong’s port, where workers brace for disruptions that could halt trade. By 2050, 30% of global port capacity could be underwater, with Asia and SIDS hit hardest. In Fiji, warming waters bleach coral reefs, slashing tourism and fishing yields that entire communities depend on. Plastic pollution—8 to 10 million metric tons dumped yearly, with 75 to 199 million tons already in the seas—chokes fish, infiltrating human food chains. Overfishing has cut global fish stocks by 10% since 2015, with developing nations losing 15% due to illegal hauls. From 1974 to 2021, overfished stocks soared from 10% to 38%, forcing fishers to burn more fuel and venture farther, raising emissions and risks. In 2023, climate disruptions—storms, droughts, heatwaves—cost ocean trade $50 billion, from damaged docks to delayed ships. Droughts and tensions in the Suez and Panama canals added volatility, hiking freight rates in early 2024. For SIDS and LDCs, these losses threaten food security and jobs, with costs projected to double by 2050 without action.
Geopolitical fragmentation deepens the crisis. Tariffs, up 12% since 2020, inflate costs for steel, aluminium, and semiconductors, raising marine energy project expenses by 8%. Green shipping investments, like electric vessels and wind-assisted freighters, fell 20% in 2023, while fossil fuel fleets grew 5%. On the high seas, covering half the planet, weak governance fuels chaos. Illegal fishing and labor abuses thrive, backed by $22 billion in harmful subsidies that empower industrial fleets. These subsidies have slashed small-scale fishers’ market share in developing nations by 25% since 2018. China, a net exporter of ocean goods ($155 billion exports, $58 billion imports), runs a deficit in services like freight ($59 billion exports, $97 billion imports). SIDS maintain surpluses in both, but LDCs face deficits, unable to compete. Tariffs, like the 30% on China’s fisheries exports to the U.S., redirect trade to domestic markets or new partners, raising prices. In the U.S., salmon imports hit $5.5 billion in 2023, with Atlantic salmon fillets at $4.5 billion, but overfished stocks and three-year aquaculture cycles drive costs higher, especially as Chinook and Atlantic salmon are listed as overfished.
Emerging threats like deep-sea mining loom large. Driven by demand for minerals for renewable energy and electronics, 31 exploration contracts have been granted by the International Seabed Authority, but no commercial approvals exist due to environmental concerns. Mining risks releasing seabed carbon and sand particles, harming marine ecosystems. Some nations push for a moratorium until the impacts are clearer. Plastic trade hit $1.2 trillion in 2022, but non-plastic substitutes like seaweed, growing 30% faster, reached $560 billion. The seaweed industry, doubling in trade value to $1.2 billion from 2012 to 2022, offers sustainable packaging and biomass, led by China (22.4 million tonnes) and Indonesia (9.2 million tonnes). Yet, weak regulation and coordination limit its potential.
The human toll is vivid. In the Philippines, Maria, a fisher, returns with half-empty nets, her village hungry as fuel costs soar. In the Maldives, Ahmed, a hotel worker, sees tourist dollars vanish as storms batter resorts. In Nigeria, port workers face layoffs as climate-damaged docks slow trade. The ocean economy contributes 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with tourism at 4% and shipping at 3%. Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD’s first female Secretary-General, says, “The ocean is our lifeline, but it’s breaking.”
The UN Ocean Conference demands action. UNCTAD calls for $100 billion annually to fortify ports and shift shipping to low-carbon tech, cutting climate losses by half by 2030. Ending harmful subsidies could restore fish stocks by 20% by 2035. A stronger UN Convention on the Law of the Sea could curb high-seas exploitation. Fair trade policies could boost developing nations’ ocean revenue by 30% by 2030, helping LDCs meet SDG 14’s target 7. The 2023 IMO Strategy aims for net-zero shipping emissions by 2050, with 20% cuts by 2030, but needs investment. UNCTAD’s “Blue Deal” seeks $2.8 trillion for mangroves, decarbonized shipping, sustainable food, and wind energy. Innovation shines: geospatial tools track ocean health, and UNCTAD’s work with the University of Okayama trains LDC scientists. The Blue BioTrade project in Caribbean SIDS promotes sustainable conch trade, while a proposed UN Seaweed Task Force could standardize and scale seaweed production.
Multilateral agreements offer hope. The WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, needing 10 more ratifications, targets harmful subsidies. The High Seas Treaty, needing 38 more, protects biodiversity. The Port State Measures Agreement, with 82 parties, fights illegal fishing. UNCTAD’s BioTrade Principles ensure sustainable marine trade, applied in 80 countries, like the Caribbean conch project. These frameworks need technical support for developing nations to enforce them.
The ocean economy is at a crossroads. From Jakarta’s docks to Fiji’s shores, it drives food security, connectivity, and diversification. But climate chaos—sea level rise, pollution, biodiversity loss—erodes its core. Trade wars and subsidies fracture its reach, while inequities starve LDCs and SIDS. The ocean has carried humanity’s dreams for centuries. Will we invest $2.8 trillion, end subsidies, and unite to govern the seas? Or let this $2.2 trillion lifeline sink? The tide is turning, and time is short.
– global bihari bureau
