By Nava Thakuria*
Myanmar’s 2025 Vote: Democracy or Dictator’s Ploy?
Myanmar is gearing up for a controversial nationwide election by late 2025 or early 2026, as announced by the military junta’s Union Election Commission through the state-sponsored newspaper Global New Light of Myanmar.
The junta, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in a February 1, 2021, coup that ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, claims the polls will be free and fair, utilising electronic voting machines for a quick, accurate, and transparent outcome.
However, the State Administration Council, which has governed Myanmar since the coup, faces significant challenges in conducting inclusive elections, controlling only about 21% of the country’s territory, with over 144 of 330 townships under the control of ethnic armed organizations and resistance forces, and 79 others facing ongoing offensives, according to the National Unity Government, an exile administration formed by ousted parliamentarians.
The junta’s brutal crackdown since 2021 has resulted in over 5,350 civilian deaths, the displacement of more than 2.9 million people, and the detention of over 26,000 individuals, including Aung San Suu Kyi, former President Win Myint, and more than 25 journalists, who remain imprisoned. The National League for Democracy, Suu Kyi’s party, is expected to be barred from participating after the junta’s arbitrary dissolution of 40 political parties, including the National League for Democracy, under a new Political Party Registration Law.
The military-drafted 2008 Constitution guarantees 25% of parliamentary seats to the military, giving an edge to the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, one of 53 registered parties, despite widespread allegations of human rights abuses, including mass killings, torture, and scorched-earth tactics. Anti-junta and pro-democracy groups, such as Progressive Voice, have denounced the planned election as a “sham,” arguing that the junta lacks legal or political legitimacy and that voting in only 267 townships undermines inclusivity. They warn that international support for the election risks legitimising the junta’s brutality and perpetuating violence, urging global condemnation and backing for Myanmar’s push for federal democracy.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains divided, with some members like Thailand offering cautious support for the polls while others, at a January 2025 retreat, urged the junta to prioritize peace and dialogue over elections, emphasizing the Five-Point Consensus peace plan, which calls for an end to violence and inclusive talks but has seen little progress.
India, a key neighbour, has expressed a clear stance, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during a meeting with Min Aung Hlaing at the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, stressing the need for a trustworthy electoral process and restoration of democracy through credible, inclusive polls. Modi highlighted the absence of a military solution to Myanmar’s ethnic violence, which has driven over 1.3 million refugees and asylum seekers and 3.5 million internally displaced persons as of December 2024, significantly impacting India’s northeastern states, particularly Manipur, where the influx of over 45,000 Myanmar refugees has strained internal security.
The ongoing civil war, marked by resistance gains and junta losses, including two regional commands in 2024, complicates electoral preparations, with observers warning of potential violence if resistance groups, such as the Karen National Union and Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, disrupt polling stations.
China, a major backer, supports the election as a means to stabilise the junta, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushing for polls during 2024 meetings, alongside commitments to curb cyber scams. However, critics, including the National Unity Government and ethnic armed organisations, argue that the election is a ploy to entrench military rule under a civilian façade, with no credible path to democracy given the junta’s suppression of opposition and control over the electoral process.
As Myanmar’s crisis deepens, with economic collapse and rising staple prices, the international community faces a dilemma: engaging with the junta risks legitimising a flawed process, while isolation may exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, leaving northeastern India and other neighbours to brace for further refugee inflows and instability.
*Senior journalist
