Jharkhand, Maharashtra in election mode

By G Krishna Mohan Rao*

New Delhi: The Election Commission today hinted that poll preparations have been completed in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and polls will be held in November 2024.

For both national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress Party, the political stakes are high since both election-going states are governed by regional forces, with the BJP and the Congress Party only extending their support to respective ruling parties.

Home Minister Amit Shah is expected to visit both the election-bound states next week to take a fresh assessment of the poll preparedness. His visits are likely to result in the poll fever reaching a peak in both the camps.

With elections around the corner, Jharkhand Chief Minister, Hemant Soren, who heads his regional political outfit, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), is trying to take a lead, along with its allies, the Congress Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), with several measures on welfare and development. But the main opposition party in Jharkhand, the BJP, is fighting hard to stage a comeback and there are indications that former non-tribal BJP chief minister Raghubar Das will stage a comeback and become active in state politics.

Das is presently the Governor of Odisha and is expected to play a key role in Jharkhand along with the present state BJP chief and former chief minister Babulal Marandi. Sources say that after meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah recently, Das would be participating in functions in Jharkhand. Besides, the decision of former JMM leader Champai Soren, who was a stop-gap chief minister when Hemant was jailed, to join the BJP is also being watched with interest on whether he could make a dent into the JMM’s vote bank.

Hemanth Soren, after his return from jail in a money laundering case, became Chief Minister again in the first week of July this year with the support of the Congress Party, the RJD and the Left parties and ever since, has been busy managing the government affairs to ensure victory again after the tragedy last week, when 13 aspirants died during the fitness test for Jharkhand excise constable posts where over 44,000 aspirants had turned up for 583 posts. These deaths resulted in a huge political slugfest between the government and the Opposition. The BJP accused the JMM-led government of “ pushing job seekers to death” and demanded compensation and government jobs each to families of the victims. Coming under pressure the government later relaxed the parameters for physical ability tests.

Having won 11 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP is now all set for further consolidation of its position in Jharkhand. Being the main opposition party in the State Assembly with 24 seats, which is just one less than the ruling JMM’s 25 seats, the BJP is going to be a dominant partner in the alliance comprising Janata Dal (United), All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and others. The ruling JMM coalition is going all out to win over the people. Since Chief Minister Soren was in prison during the Lok Sabha elections, JMM leaders say the BJP exploited the situation by playing “all sorts of games”. But Assembly elections are a different ball game. The JMM is expected to contest about 40 seats, and the Congress Party about 25 seats, in the 81-member Assembly. Polls talks are underway in both camps.

The real test for the BJP and Congress is going to be in Maharashtra. The state is in a political mess with both national parties as well as four regional groups pitted against each other. The BJP split Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar and put up, what observers consider, a “dummy” a Chief Minister. Apparently, because of this, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) suffered a major setback in the recent Lok Sabha polls. While the opposition Maha Vikas Agadhi ( MVA) comprising the Congress Party, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) won 30 out of 48 seats. BJP scored only 9, while the Shiv Sena (Shinde), 7 and the NCP( Ajit) 1 seat. On the other, the Congress Party got 13, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9 and NCP (Sharad Pawar) 8 seats.

Given the ensuing Assembly polls in the state, both camps are holding informal talks over the seat-sharing formula. There are indications that the BJP wants to contest for 160 seats, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) 100 and the NCP (Ajit ) 60. Sources said everything will be clear, once the poll schedule is announced. On the other hand, the INDI Alliance is also holding informal talks over seat sharing. Sources said more than seat sharing, it is the strategy to be adopted in the coming polls on whether to project and chief ministerial candidate or not, which is important.

When veteran leader and NCP supreo Sharad Pawar recently stated that there was no immediate need for MVA to name a Chief Ministerial candidate for the forthcoming elections, it was obvious that that he has something up his sleeve. The wily Pawar never speaks without a purpose and there is more than what meets the eye. It is said that Pawar’s logic is that any party which gets the maximum number of seats after the declaration of the results, should get its leader elected as the next Chief Minister.

There are speculations that after the election results, the NCP ( Ajit Pawar) group may come back to the parent party and consolidate Sharad Pawar’s hands. The other possibility which could also crop up is that the Sharad Pawar faction could also be open to a tie-up with the BJP if that would help in bringing them to power with their nominee being the Chief Minister.

The Congress Party in Maharashtra today lacks both a leader of stature as well as an organisational network. Here the Congress Party does not seem to have any option. There may be some Congress Party leaders who could raise the question of ideological incompatibility and under these circumstances, there are talks in the political circle that the Maha Vikas Agadhi may collectively declare Uddhav Thackeray as the chief ministerial face. The Shiv Sena (UT) cadres are very passionate about winning the polls and their efforts would also help both the Congress and the NCP to win many seats.

*Senior journalist