By Venkatesh Raghavan
As the poll fever keeps reaching its peak in the four States and Union Territory of Puducherry, with the completion of two phases of polling in Assam and West Bengal, there seems to be a swing in the predicted fortunes of political parties in the electoral fray.
Also read: Largely peaceful first round of polls in Assam and West Bengal
It seems that two-time West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee sustaining injuries and undergoing hospitalisation, has changed the voter sentiment in her favour owing to the incumbent sympathy wave the incident generated. At the same time there is no runaway prediction in favour of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the state. The expectation from intelligence inputs that indicated this swing in electoral fortunes is that the leg injury sustained by Mamata is working in favour of a mood swing that might benefit her at the hustings. It also stated that there is no question of any runaway success and the electoral battle is more evenly poised. At present, the poll predictions differ in the magnitude of sway that is expected to favour the ruling TMC dispensation. The damage that had already been done owing to the poaching of TMC ministers from the state cabinet however, is an important factor that cannot be overruled as they do hold sway over the local electorate.
In neighbouring Assam, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government seems to be doing well. The intelligence inputs too stated that the BJP’s electoral gains in the previous elections will be more than consolidated in the ongoing poll fray. Though the opposition Congress party cadres are making an attempt to capitalise on the farmers’ stir in the northern states of Punjab and Haryana, it is not expected to affect the ruling BJP’s fortunes. However, the incident after the second phase of polling yesterday that pertains to the Ratabai locality of Assam, the transportation of a sealed EVM box on the night of the second phase of polling has created a ruckus as the vehicle was found to belong to a BJP functionary in the state. It resulted in violence including stone throwing incidents before the police was brought in to quell it. Amidst cries of foul play and poll boycott threats from the opposition Congress ranks, the election authority has ordered re-polling at booth ,149 of the locality and suspended four of its officers in connection with the incident.
Down south, except in Puducherry the saffron brigade is not expected to make any dents, be it in Tamil Nadu or Kerala. While in the April 6,Puducherry election, the BJP is hoping to take the lead, in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, which will go to polls on the same date, besides witnessing a single-phase polling, the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam – Congress alliance is hoping to return to power after a decade of their being in the political wilderness.
In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) sounds confident of a placid victory that would enable it gain a second term in the state. The State’s penchant to keep the saffron alliance out of the fray still continues to hold sway over the electorate in Kerala, whereas, in Tamil Nadu, the saffron party’s fortunes seem to be affected owing to the anti-incumbency wave against a two-time All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam reign. Tamil Nadu in addition to affecting a switch in electoral fortunes is also slated to engender the genNext political cadres in both the mainstream parties in the electoral fray.
There are also rounds of money politics and last bid efforts to woo voters by the political outfits in the fray by offering liquor and other sops doing the rounds across states. And these factors do work, even if they are not likely to be of major concern as each political party is well aware on how to guard its turf!
