Global Trade Set to Shatter Records, Despite Slowing Momentum and Rising Risks
Geneva: In a year that has repeatedly defied expectations of a sharp slowdown, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) now confirms that world merchandise and services trade combined will cross an unprecedented $35 trillion by the end of 2025. This represents a full $2.2 trillion, or 7%, increase over 2024 and marks the highest nominal value ever recorded in global commerce.
Trade has proven to be the most dynamic component of the world economy for the second straight year, growing far faster than global GDP and reversing the lethargic 2023–2024 period when commerce lagged behind overall economic output. The expansion began with an annualised pace above 8% in the first half of the year, carried forward by rebounding demand for electronics, renewed strength in commodity prices, and a sustained post-pandemic surge in travel and tourism. Although the third quarter saw growth moderate to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, with goods rising 2% and services a healthier 4%, the final three months of the year are still expected to add another 1.2% overall, driven mainly by higher volumes rather than price effects, a reassuring sign that inflation in traded goods has largely normalised.
Much of the story in 2025 has been written in the developing world. East Asia posted 9% export growth over the past twelve months, with intra-regional exchanges jumping 10%, led by China, the Republic of Korea, and Vietnam, pouring electronics and machinery into global markets. South–South trade corridors expanded by roughly 8% and now account for nearly 29% of all world trade, up from 25% only five years ago. Africa recorded a 10% rise in imports and 6% in exports, with South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco all showing double-digit gains in manufactured goods and agricultural products. In Latin America, Brazil stood out with 11% export growth fueled by agribusiness and mining, while India, alongside China, delivered the only double-digit increases in services exports, particularly in information technology and remote professional services.
Among sectors, manufacturing has been the undisputed engine, adding approximately $1.5 trillion in new trade value and growing 10% overall. Electronics and electrical machinery led the way with a striking 14% surge, propelled by artificial-intelligence hardware, semiconductors, smartphones, and data-centre equipment. Agriculture delivered sharp third-quarter spikes, with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports each climbing 11%, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals maintained steady 6% growth. Services contributed another $750 billion, lifted by travel, transport, and digital deliveries. Not every sector shared in the bounty, however: automotive trade fell 4%, hurt by lingering supply-chain bottlenecks and softer consumer demand in Europe and North America, textiles and apparel managed only a tepid 2% recovery, and fossil-fuel shipments declined 8% amid lower prices and accelerating energy-transition policies.
Beneath the headline figures, deeper structural shifts are reshaping the trading system. Companies have continued to relocate production toward politically aligned or geographically closer partners, a phenomenon known as friendshoring and nearshoring. North American imports from Mexico and Vietnam have soared, while the European Union has sharply increased purchases from Türkiye and Morocco, in some cases by 15–20%. Export controls on critical minerals, semiconductors, and quantum technologies have proliferated, and container freight rates, though well off their 2022 peaks, still sit 70–100% above pre-pandemic levels on many routes. Protectionist measures tracked by independent monitors rose another 30% this year.
Looking ahead, UNCTAD adopts a notably cautious tone. Global growth is expected to ease to between 2.4% and 2.7% in 2026, debt-service burdens in the poorest countries have returned to levels last seen in the early 2000s, and persistent imbalances, particularly the large United States current-account deficit matched by surpluses in East Asia and Northern Europe, could reignite currency and tariff tensions. Early indicators such as purchasing managers’ new-export-order indices and container bookings already hint at possible contraction in goods trade volumes as soon as the first quarter of next year.
Trade has once again demonstrated extraordinary resilience in 2025, lifting emerging regions to new prominence and adding more value than any other part of the global economy. Yet its ability to keep playing that role, the report concludes, will depend on whether policymakers can reverse the accelerating fragmentation and restore a rules-based, inclusive multilateral system before the current momentum finally gives way.
– global bihari bureau
