Global Food Systems Face Rising Disaster Risks
FAO Shows Digital Tools Strengthen Food Resilience
Rome: Over the past 33 years, disasters have inflicted an estimated $3.26 trillion in losses on agriculture worldwide, averaging $99 billion annually, or roughly 4 per cent of global agricultural gross domestic product (GDP).
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), these losses are a result of droughts, floods, storms, pests, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), which have repeatedly disrupted food production, livelihoods, and nutrition.
The agency’s report, The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2025 – Digital solutions for reducing risks and impacts, released here today, provides the most comprehensive global assessment to date of how disasters are affecting agrifood systems and highlights the transformative potential of digital technologies in mitigating these losses.
Between 1991 and 2023, disasters destroyed 4.6 billion tonnes of cereals, 2.8 billion tonnes of fruits and vegetables, and 900 million tonnes of meat and dairy. These losses translate to a daily per capita reduction of 320 kilocalories, which represents 13–16 per cent of average energy needs.
Asia accounts for 47 per cent of global losses, totalling $1.53 trillion, reflecting both the scale of agricultural production and high exposure to floods, storms, and droughts. The Americas represent 22 per cent of global losses, or $713 billion, driven by recurrent droughts, hurricanes, and extreme temperature events that heavily impact large commodity crop systems. Africa, while recording lower absolute losses of $611 billion, suffers the highest proportional impact, losing 7.4 per cent of agricultural GDP, the largest relative burden of any region.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) remain among the world’s most vulnerable to disasters such as cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise, and despite relatively small agricultural output, disaster-related losses represent a disproportionately high share of agricultural GDP.
Marine heatwaves between 1985 and 2022 caused $6.6 billion in losses, affecting 15 per cent of global fisheries, which support the livelihoods of 500 million people. Yet losses in fisheries and aquaculture remain largely invisible in disaster assessments, despite the critical role these systems play in sustaining livelihoods.
FAO emphasises that digital transformation is a central tool for agricultural disaster risk reduction. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), remote sensing, mobile connectivity, drones, and sensors are enabling hyperlocal, real-time insights that improve early warning, advisory services, risk transfer mechanisms, and anticipatory action. The Climate Risk Toolbox (CRTB) integrates global datasets to guide agricultural planning in more than 200 projects. The Rift Valley Fever Early Warning Decision Support Tool (RVF-EW-DST) has accurately forecasted Rift Valley fever outbreaks in countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda, allowing for timely vaccinations and limiting the spread of disease. Soil Mapping for Resilient Agrifood Systems (SoilFER) is a geospatial platform that links soil and fertiliser data to promote efficient and sustainable farming. The Fall Armyworm Monitoring and Early Warning System (FAMEWS) tracks infestations across more than 60 countries through mobile-based reporting. Parametric insurance platforms have insured over 9.1 million farmers through digital risk assessment tools. Early warning systems, including the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS), have enabled anticipatory actions that can yield returns of up to seven dollars for every dollar invested.
FAO’s first integrated Risk Monitoring and Situation Room at headquarters delivers real-time monitoring to coordinate early detection, warning, and response. The Financing for Shock-Driven Food Crises Facility (FSFC) builds on these initiatives to anticipate and prevent escalating food emergencies before they occur.
Digital innovation allows farmers and policymakers to make better decisions and act earlier. Early warning systems have enabled the evacuation of 90 per cent of at-risk populations before disasters strike. Predictive analytics, mobile-based insurance, and other tools are already saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and strengthening food systems. Despite these advances, over 2.6 billion people remain offline, many in rural areas, most exposed to disaster risks.
FAO stresses that digital solutions must be human-centred and complemented by capacity development, institutional strengthening, and coherent policy frameworks to ensure that innovations reach smallholder farmers, women, youth, and Indigenous communities.
The report calls on governments, international partners, and the private sector to advance digital innovation to enhance efficient and effective disaster risk reduction in agriculture and food security. It also emphasises the need to integrate digital solutions into national agricultural policies and strategies, to increase investment supporting agrifood system transformation, and to scale up digital infrastructure and literacy to enable broader accessibility and innovation-driven decision-making.
The report’s key messages underscore the escalating toll of disasters, noting that lower-middle-income countries face the highest relative losses at 5 per cent of agricultural GDP, exceeding both low-income (3 per cent) and high-income countries (4 per cent). This reveals a critical vulnerability gap where high exposure combines with limited resilient infrastructure. Furthermore, production losses correspond to reduced availability of essential vitamins and minerals, with iron losses equating to 60 per cent of men’s requirements, potentially disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
Disaster impacts extend beyond immediate production losses to include infrastructure damage, market disruptions, financial system failures, and ecosystem degradation that persist for years. The report stresses that current assessment tools must evolve to capture direct and indirect impacts, non-economic values, differentiated effects on vulnerable groups, biodiversity losses, and long-term ecosystem disruptions.
In detailing recent crises, the executive summary highlights 2023’s severe droughts in the Horn of Africa, affecting over 36 million people and causing over 13 million livestock deaths, alongside South America’s Amazon basin drought, reducing soybean and corn yields by up to 40 per cent. Floods in Pakistan destroyed 849,000 hectares of crops, while El Niño disrupted patterns globally, with droughts in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi slashing maize production by up to 70 per cent. The pattern persisted into 2024–2025 with biological hazards like African swine fever, Canadian forest fires burning 3.24 million hectares, marine heatwaves, and conflicts displacing farmers in Sudan and the Sahel.
The complex nature of disaster impacts is explored through multiple transmission pathways, including direct production disruptions leading to secondary effects like pest outbreaks, infrastructure bottlenecks isolating communities from markets, financial constraints tightening credit, and market volatility. Non-economic losses, such as cultural heritage erosion, social structure disruption, psychological impacts, and ecosystem service degradation, are emphasised as crucial for long-term sustainability.
Assessment tools like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Monitor (Sendai Framework Monitor) and Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs) reveal gaps: only 87 countries reported under Sendai’s C2 indicator (agricultural losses) since 2015, with hydrometeorological events dominating losses. PDNAs from 2007–2024 show agriculture absorbing 23 per cent of total disaster impacts, with droughts causing the highest proportional losses within the sector despite underreporting.
Modelled estimates using FAOSTAT and the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) show losses escalating from $64 billion annually in the 1990s to $144 billion post-2010. Peak years include 2022 at $215 billion. Cereals suffered the most variability, with major declines in 2012–2013. When normalised by agricultural GDP, Africa (7.4 per cent), the Americas (5.2 per cent), Oceania (4.2 per cent), and Europe (3.6 per cent) show varying burdens.
By hazard, floods caused over $1.5 trillion, storms $720 billion, earthquakes $336 billion, droughts $278 billion (likely underestimated), extreme temperatures $187 billion, and wildfires $166 billion. Nutritional losses include shortfalls in vitamins and minerals, exacerbating vulnerabilities.
Fisheries and aquaculture’s unique challenges stem from ecosystem dependence and coastal vulnerability, with 61.8 million in primary production. Marine heatwaves’ impacts highlight the need for better inclusion in assessments.
Digital technologies transform risk management by integrating data into actionable intelligence. FAO’s GIEWS monitors food supply with real-time drought data via the Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) across 120+ countries. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)’s Disaster Loss and Damage Resilience Assessment (DELTA) Resilience System standardises multisectoral data, capturing non-economic impacts.
Remote sensing advances include Google’s GraphCast for faster forecasts and NVIDIA’s neural networks. FAO’s CRTB harnesses geospatial data for 200+ projects. The 2023 El Niño Data in Emergencies (DiE) assessment aided decision-making.
Agrometeorological advisories yield benefits like cost reductions in India ($29.65–$44.48/ha) and income boosts in West Africa ($40–116/ha). Platforms like Sri Lanka’s Sustainable Extension and Empowerment for Digital Agriculture Hub (SEED Hub) enable 16 per cent higher crop prices via geo-localised advice.
Early warning saves lives, with $1 invested yielding $7 in benefits. Disease surveillance via the Event Mobile App for Animal Health (EMA-i+), Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS), Global Early Warning System for Animal Diseases (GLEWS+), and OpenFMD integrates layers for biological hazards. EMA-i supports 4,000+ users in 15 countries, reporting 60,000+ suspicions.
Pest systems like FAMEWS process data from 50,000+ scouting events across 60+ countries. RVF-EW-DST issues monthly risks, enabling 19 alerts since 2018 and proactive vaccinations.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)’s digital system maintained analyses during COVID-19. Sudan’s platform integrates data for vulnerability identification. Near-real-time assessments via the World Food Programme (WFP)’s Platform for Real-Time Impact and Situation Monitoring (PRISM) and SKAI speed damage evaluation 13x faster.
Anticipatory action in Somalia’s 2023 floods evacuated 90 per cent at-risk via the Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) models. Parametric insurance like Pula covers 9.1 million farmers, boosting investments 16 per cent and yields by 30 per cent.
Social protection via digital payments like Kenya’s M-Pesa ($7M to 1.1M in 2017) and Malawi’s 74,000 households in 2022 reduces costs and risks.
Mainstreaming requires data governance (e.g., the European Union’s system, India’s infrastructure), addressing the digital divide (2.6B offline), policy strategies (Madagascar, Rwanda), financing/partnerships (FAO-Google training 500+), and capacity building (Barbados precision agriculture, Grenada Geographic Information System (GIS), Bangladesh 76,020 volunteers).
Human-centred design ensures empathy and iteration, as in Rwanda’s survey, improving completion to 70–76 per cent and Sri Lanka’s SEED Hub.
The conclusion notes challenges like the digital divide, equitable access for women/Indigenous/elderly/youth, governance on data privacy, and needs for capacity/institutions. Priorities include integrated frameworks capturing full impacts, enhanced monitoring of indirect/non-economic losses, investment in inclusive digital infrastructure, policy integration of risk reduction, and strengthened partnerships for innovation.
The FAO study illustrates a stark reality: disasters will continue to challenge global agrifood systems. But by combining technological innovation, early warning systems, risk reduction strategies, and inclusive policies with targeted investments, agriculture can reduce vulnerability, protect livelihoods, and build resilient food systems capable of withstanding the mounting pressures of a changing climate and increasingly frequent disasters.
– global bihari bureau
