By Deepak Parvatiyar*
Himalayan Dreams Sink in Monsoon’s Deadly Grip
The 2025 Southwest Monsoon, crashing into India nine days early on June 29, has turned Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh into a maelstrom of cloudbursts, flash floods, and landslides, toppling lives and livelihoods with ruthless precision.
On August 26, 2025, a landslide near Adhkwari on the Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine route in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) injured pilgrims, sparking frantic rescue efforts with heavy machinery. In Doda, a cloudburst unleashed flash floods and landslides, obliterating nearly a dozen homes and cowsheds.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned of heavy to extremely heavy rainfall through August 27, forecasting heightened risks in Himachal Pradesh (over 109% of the Long Period Average), Uttarakhand (over 108%), and Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (88–112%).
The erratic and heavy, very heavy or extremely heavy rainfalls are recorded during the monsoon 2025 over Uttarakhand and north-western India due to multiple interacting factors.
“The monsoon trough has shifted unusually close to the Himalayan foothills, pulling moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, resulting in enhanced rainfall over the region,” CS Tomar, Director Meteorological Centre, Dehradun, explained.
Cloudbursts, brief but intense weather phenomena characterised by torrential rainfall exceeding 100 mm per hour over a very limited area (20–30 square kilometres) at extremely high rates, often exceeding 100 mm per hour, have struck regions with significant orographic influence, including the Himalayas, the Northeastern states, and the Western Ghats.
In Uttarakhand, at least three cloudbursts in Uttarkashi and Rudraprayag, including a catastrophic August 5 event in Dharali, killed between 7 and 70, left over 100 missing, and devastated markets, 20–25 hotels/homestays, and bridges, exacerbated by glacial melting in the Kheer Ganga river. In Jammu & Kashmir, four cloudbursts, including Kishtwar’s August 15 event that killed 46–60 pilgrims and injured over 100, destroyed community facilities, leaving 69 missing and 167 rescued. Two cloudbursts in Kathua killed seven and isolated a village. Both states witnessed multiple flash floods and landslides. However, Himachal Pradesh was on top of the table. It faced 51 cloudbursts, 77 flash floods, and 81 landslides since June 20, killing 156–261 and leaving 38–40 missing, with Mandi, Kullu, and Una hit hardest by flooded rivers and blocked roads. A cloudburst in Kullu’s Shrikhand Mahadev hill triggered flooding in the Kurpan Khad, prompting high alerts.
In India, cloudbursts typically occur during the monsoon season in regions with significant orographic influence, such as the Himalayas, the Northeastern states and the Western Ghats.
“Forecasting cloudbursts is highly challenging due to their small spatial extent, short lifespan, and sudden onset of thunderstorms, compounded by complex atmospheric interactions in tropical regions like India,” said Dr. Sanjay O’Neill Shaw, Scientist-F, IMD. According to him, it is for these reasons that cloudbursts are still considered unpredictable worldwide.
In 2025, the South West monsoon covered the entire country on June 29 in comparison to the normal date of July 8. The India Meteorological Department issued its first long-range forecast (LRF) for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon season, indicating above-normal rainfall for the country as a whole.
Specifically, the forecast predicted rainfall likely to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%. However, the updated LRF issued on May 27, 2025, indicated that southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole was likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. This indicated that above-normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2025. Sub-divisionwise, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh is expected to be (88-112% of the LPA), Himachal Pradesh >109% of the LPA, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi >114% of the LPA, Punjab >115% of the LPA, Uttarakhand >108% of the LPA, East Uttar Pradesh >110% of the LPA, West Uttar Pradesh >112% of the LPA.
Environmentalists claim that Uttarakhand’s fragile Himalayan slopes, destabilised by heavy rainfall and glacial melting, are primed for landslides, worsened by road construction, tree felling, illegal mining in the Bhilangana Range, and unscientific infrastructure like hydropower projects. Himachal and J&K face parallel challenges, with unchecked development amplifying risks.
An unusually high 14 western disturbances between June 1 and August 20, 2025—five in June, five in July, and four in August—intensified these events, with systems lingering into the monsoon season due to climate-driven shifts in the subtropical westerly jet stream, fueled by Arctic and West Asian warming. For instance, a western disturbance over Afghanistan and Pakistan on July 28–29 triggered a cloudburst in Mandi, killing three, while another on August 5 over J&K fueled Uttarakhand’s Dharali disaster.
Global warming, enabling warmer air to hold 7% more moisture per 1°C rise, fuels these powerful downpours.
“The erratic and heavy, very heavy, or extremely heavy rainfalls are recorded during the monsoon 2025 over Uttarakhand and north-western India due to multiple interacting factors,” CS Tomar confirmed.
The human toll is gut-wrenching, with over 1,109 deaths nationwide since late May 2025, including 484 from drowning and 116 from floods, following 1,492 fatalities in 2024. Himachal’s 209 mishaps dwarf Uttarakhand’s 10+ and Jammu & Kashmir’s 12+, but the latter’s high-casualty events and Uttarakhand’s concentrated devastation rival its intensity. Despite below-normal rainfall in Kishtwar (-71%) and Kathua (-5%), hyper-local cloudbursts defy seasonal forecasts and have caused disproportionate destruction.
Economic losses are crippling, with Himachal facing ₹2,394 crore in damages to 956–1,120 power transformers, 517 water supply schemes, and 129–617 roads, hammering its ₹3,500 crore apple economy, crops like Una’s cucumbers, and tourism. J&K’s tourism, with halted Vaishno Devi yatras and cancelled bookings, and horticulture (2.64 million metric tonnes of fruit in 2023–24) face severe disruptions. Uttarakhand’s unquantified losses, including wrecked homestays and stalled Char Dham Yatra, threaten its tourism and horticulture-driven economy.
Rescue operations, involving the Army, the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), the State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF), and local authorities, have evacuated 55–370 in Himachal and 167 in Jammu & Kashmir, but rain and debris hinder efforts. School closures in Jammu and eight Himachal districts on August 27 reflect ongoing vigilance. The IMD’s Himalayan radars struggle to predict localised cloudbursts, underscoring the need for advanced warning systems, stricter land-use policies, and reforestation to shield the Himalayas, Northeastern states, and Western Ghats from escalating devastation.
*Senior journalist
