By G Krishna Mohan Rao*
India’s Big Count: Caste and Politics Collide
New Delhi: Unlike its predecessors, Census 2027 is poised to be a formidable challenge and a potential political game-changer. For the first time since 1931, the caste of every resident in India will be recorded, a mega task given the country’s vast diversity and the intricate web of sub-castes within castes. Other far-reaching implications of this census include the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies and the implementation of women’s reservation in legislatures. The delimitation exercise, in particular, is fraught with numerous ifs and buts, making it a deeply complex endeavour.
The census is expected to commence on April 1, 2026, with a notification likely to be issued on June 16, 2025, in accordance with the Census Act, 1948. Delayed for over five years due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the census will be conducted in two phases, with the population count concluding at midnight on March 1, 2027. Top sources indicate that this will be India’s first fully digital census, adhering to a schedule similar to Census 2011.
A pressing question arises: will the final results be available before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections? If the population count is finalised by early 2029, a delimitation commission could be established within the current Lok Sabha term. However, if the process mirrors the timeline of previous censuses, where final population counts took nearly two years to publish, the Census 2027 results may not be ready in time for the delimitation exercise to conclude before the 2029 polls. It remains uncertain whether the Union Government will provide a clear timeline for when the final population count can be expected.
In essence, Census 2027 is not just a vital statistical exercise; it will be closely watched for its potential to alter the dynamics of electoral politics before the next Lok Sabha polls. A delimitation commission could begin its work before 2029, but the government may opt to retain the existing Lok Sabha seat structure for the 2029 elections.
The delimitation debate is particularly contentious because most large states ruled by opposition parties are in the South, where population growth has been effectively controlled. In contrast, the BJP’s dominance is concentrated in the North and West, where population growth is higher. Southern states harbour deep misgivings and anxieties that delimitation could reduce their share of parliamentary representation as a consequence of their successful population control measures. This is a deeply divisive issue that demands a consensus-based approach to resolve.
The number of Lok Sabha seats has remained fixed at 543 since 1973, based on the 1971 census. Two constitutional amendments have since rewarded states that curbed population growth by freezing the seat allocation as per the 1971 census, ensuring that states implementing family planning are not penalised with reduced parliamentary representation. Home Ministry sources confirm that Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly assured that the concerns of southern states will be addressed, with discussions planned with stakeholders at an appropriate time. Sources also suggest that the entire Census 2027 data may be released within two years, potentially aligning the finalisation of the delimitation process with the 2034 general elections. This timeline would also support plans for the “One Nation, One Election” system and the implementation of a one-third reservation for women in legislatures.
The caste census introduces additional complexities. While states like Bihar, Telangana, and Karnataka have conducted their own caste censuses, they have faced controversies due to differing methodologies. The methodology for the national caste census remains unclear, but its implications are significant. The enumeration of castes is likely to spark demands for increased education and job quotas, potentially pushing beyond the 49% reservation limit set by the Supreme Court’s Indra Sawhney judgment. The reintroduction of caste in the census aims to capture the diversity of socio-economic status, not only between castes but also within the same caste across different times and regions. Furthermore, an effective census should develop robust indicators of social and economic deprivation to ensure that the conditions of India’s most disadvantaged communities are not overlooked.
Census 2027 will also provide critical insights into the urban-rural divide, average standards of living, poverty and literacy levels, consumption patterns, migration trends, and other vital statistics. Policymakers, government agencies, economists, and politicians will closely monitor these findings. To ensure the census’s success, steps must be taken to guarantee an effective methodology, comprehensive reach, and seamless data collection. Transparency is paramount, particularly for the caste census, where methodological, structural, and technological impediments must be resolved to ensure a smooth process.
The Narendra Modi government faces a daunting task in implementing these changes in time for the 2029 elections. It will need to engage not only with opposition parties but also with its coalition partners. Regional parties are likely to drive hard bargains, while the BJP may seek to advance its own agenda. The Congress-led opposition has already criticised the government for delaying the census and accused the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party of resisting an OBC census. With such political brinkmanship on the horizon, the final census figures are poised to become a central issue in the 2029 elections.
*Senior journalist
