Raj Thackeray addressing a rally. Photo source: MNS
By Vinod Raghavan*
Mumbai: Can Raj Thackeray help the ruling Mahayuti Aghadi and play spoilsport for the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadhi (MVA) in the November 20, 2024, Assembly polls? Such speculation assumes significance because in the Lok Sabha election this year, the MVA won 30 seats while the Mahayuti had to settle with just 17 seats in Maharashtra.
The amount of prime time that Raj got on news television channels as the leader of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) which is contesting as an independent party, led to such speculations but the footage that he got needs to match his party’s track record which remains poor on the ground. Raj Thackeray supported Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls even as his party, like in 2019, did not contest the elections then.
Political analysts wonder whether this a quid pro quo, as Raj had openly given unconditional support to Narendra Modi in the last Lok Sabha elections and he had also met Home Minister Amit Shah along with his son Amit Thackeray in New Delhi.
Raj got prominent coverage on TV channels with full-length interviews by some renowned journalists, and even on trivial matters such as the food that he likes, and his pet dogs, not to mention Raj’s talent of making on-spot caricatures of his favourite politician, the late Atal Behari Vajpayee.
Raj’s star had been on the wane though. MNS which won 13 seats in the 2009 Assembly polls won just one each in the subsequent ones.
This time MNS has fielded 121 candidates in Maharashtra including 25 seats in Mumbai. The BJP is contesting 17 seats in Mumbai, while its ally Shiv Sena is vying for 16.
Although MNS is contesting as an independent party this time, it’s an open secret that it will help the BJP by cutting into the ‘Marathi Manoos‘ votes of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). MNS is contesting 25 of the 36 seats in Mumbai, where 20 per cent of the population is Marathi-speaking.
Despite talking of ‘Marathi Manoos‘, the MNS has not fielded any candidate against the Mumbai BJP president Mangal Prabhat Lodha, a Marwari Jain and a reputed builder from the elite Malabar Hill constituency; and Shaina NC, who left the BJP to join the Shiv Sena. She is getting support from MNS workers for her Mumbadevi constituency.
Raj’s son Amit Thackeray, who newly entered politics, is pitted in a triangle fight between Shiv Sena’s sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar and Siv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray)’s Mahesh Sawant from Dadar-Assembly constituency. Supported by the BJP, he is in the spotlight of national and regional television channels.
While MNS has fielded candidates against the BJP and Shiv Sena nominees on 22 of these seats in Mumbai, they are expected to split the vote share for the Mahayuti’s benefit.
Specifically, MNS is running candidates against 12 Shiv Sena seats led by Eknath Shinde and 10 seats contested by the BJP. In the Sewree constituency, where Mahayuti has not fielded a candidate, MNS leader Bala Nandgaonkar is the sole contender with the ruling coalition’s support.
Interestingly, BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis despite the Mahayuti alliance with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party, has declared support to select MNS candidates including Amit Thackeray and Raj’s close confidante Bala Nandgaonkar. Similarly, MNS has also not fielded its candidates against top BJP candidates. For example in the Bandra Assembly constituency of Mumbai, MNS supports the sitting BJP legislator Ashish Shelar.
In some other important seats, the MNS can make the Mahayuti gain. For example, in the Belapur constituency in Navi Mumbai, the MNS’ Gajanan Kale is expected to cut into the votes of Sandeep Naik, the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharad Pawar candidate, thus helping the BJPs Manda Mhatre.
Meanwhile, the Maharashtra election campaign ended this evening, 48 hours before the state’s November 20 poll. The main fight for the 288 Assembly seats is between two alliances, the ruling Mahayuti Aghadi and the Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA). The Mahayuti comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (Eknath Shinde faction) along with smaller partners such as the Republican Party of India (Athawale), Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and many others. The MVA is a conglomeration of opposition parties – the Congress Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), and some other smaller parties.
*Senior journalist
