Rome: A projected surge in global sugar production for the 2025/26 season, led by robust harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand, is raising hopes for stabilised food supply chains worldwide.
Favourable weather in Brazil’s key southern growing regions, coupled with expanded outputs in India and Thailand, is expected to bolster global sugar supplies, easing pressures on prices. Amid this outlook, the FAO Food Price Index climbed to 130.1 points in July 2025, up 2.1 points or 1.6 per cent from June, driven by sharp rises in meat and vegetable oil prices. The index, a weighted average of five commodity group price indices based on 2014-2016 export shares, remains 30.1 points or 18.8 per cent below its March 2022 peak but is 9.2 points or 7.6 per cent higher than July 2024.
The anticipated sugar production recovery has significantly influenced the FAO Sugar Price Index, which fell 0.2 per cent to 103.3 points in July, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and a 16.2-point or 13.5 per cent drop from July 2024. Early forecasts point to increased outputs in key producing nations, but a rebound in global sugar import demand has moderated the price decline, signalling a complex balance in the sweetener market.
The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped 0.8 per cent to 106.5 points, down 4.2 points or 3.8 per cent from July 2024. Falling wheat and sorghum prices offset gains in maize and barley. Abundant winter wheat harvests in the northern hemisphere exerted downward pressure, though adverse conditions for spring wheat in parts of North America, combined with hesitant farmer selling in Europe and the Black Sea region, provided some price support. Maize prices rose due to slow selling, dry conditions in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, and reduced export supplies from Argentina and Brazil, where export taxes and strong domestic demand tightened availability. The FAO All Rice Price Index fell 1.8 per cent, driven by ample export supplies and weak global import demand.
Vegetable oil prices surged 7.1 per cent to 166.8 points, reaching a three-year high. Palm oil prices climbed for the second consecutive month, fueled by strong global demand and improved competitiveness compared to other oils. Soy oil quotations rose on expectations of firm demand from the biofuel sector in the Americas, while sunflower oil prices increased due to seasonally tightening supplies in the Black Sea region. Rapeseed oil prices, however, declined with the arrival of new crop supplies in Europe, tempering the index’s overall rise.
The FAO Meat Price Index reached a record 127.3 points, up 1.5 points or 1.2 per cent from June and 7.3 points or 6.0 per cent higher than July 2024. Bovine meat prices hit an all-time high, driven by strong import demand from China and the United States, outpacing export supplies, particularly from Australia, where higher quotations reflected limited availability. Robust demand also lifted prices in Brazil. Ovine meat prices rose sharply for the fourth consecutive month, constrained by limited supplies from Oceania amid sustained global demand. Poultry meat prices edged up slightly, bolstered by higher Brazilian export prices following the country’s mid-June reinstatement of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI)-free status, which eased trade restrictions and resumed imports by key partners. Pig meat prices fell due to ample supplies and subdued demand, especially in the European Union, where domestic surpluses weighed on quotations.
The FAO Dairy Price Index slipped 0.2 points or 0.1 per cent to 155.3 points, marking its first decline since April 2024, though it remained 21.5 per cent above July 2024. Butter and milk powder prices fell, driven by increased production and rising inventories in Oceania, alongside weaker import demand from China and other Asian markets. In the European Union, tight cream availability and strong demand propped up butter prices, limiting the index’s decline. Cheese prices continued to climb, supported by robust demand from Asian and Near East markets and reduced export availability in the European Union, though lower quotations in Oceania and the United States moderated the increase.
The FAO Food Price Index, revised in June 2020 to expand its price coverage and base period, tracks monthly changes in international food commodity prices. It offers a critical lens on global food market trends, with upcoming updates scheduled for September 5, October 3, November 7, and December 5, 2025.
– global bihari bureau
